Prediction Edge
Republican
Ron Estes

Ron Estes

Republican candidate for U.S. House in Kansas

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Ron Estes is trading at 96% to win the KS-04 House winner? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age70 years old (Jul 19, 1956)

GenderMale

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LocationKansas

BackgroundU.S. Representative

EducationTennessee Technological University — B.A. (1973)

Notable personal detailsRonald Gene Estes is a Republican U.S. Representative for Kansas’s 4th Congressional District, first elected in a 2017 special election. He previously served as Kansas State Treasurer (2011–2017) and as Sedgwick County Treasurer (2005–2011). Estes earned a B.A. and an M.B.A. from Tennessee Technological University and has worked in engineering and business roles.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports lowering and extending federal tax cuts and favors pro-growth, business-friendly tax policy. Has voted for and publicly endorsed the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and efforts to make its provisions permanent or extended. Advocates preventing tax increases and reducing regulatory burden to promote economic growth.

Healthcare

Ron Estes has supported repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act and voted for the House GOP American Health Care Act in 2017. He has described Obamacare as harmful and endorsed legislative efforts to dismantle and replace it with Republican alternatives.

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Immigration & Border

Ron Estes emphasizes stronger border security and enforcement measures, including increased funding for border infrastructure and supporting measures to restrict unlawful entry. He frames immigration as acceptable when done legally and has supported related House border and immigration provisions.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Ron Estes describes himself as pro‑life, has supported legislation restricting abortion (including cosponsoring the Born‑Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act and the Pain‑Capable Unborn Child Protection Act), and has opposed federal measures to enshrine abortion protections. He has expressed that Congress should enact laws to "protect innocent life."

Climate & Energy

The candidate consistently supports policies prioritizing American energy independence and fossil fuel production, has cosponsored pro-pipeline legislation, and has voted for measures that roll back or defund federal clean energy programs and environmental reviews. Voting scorecards show a long record of anti-environment votes and opposition to many clean energy and emissions-related initiatives. These positions emphasize market-driven energy and expanded fossil fuel development over aggressive emissions regulation or large federal clean-energy programs.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports the Second Amendment and opposes recent Senate gun-control legislation, emphasizing enforcement of existing laws, Fix NICS improvements, mental-health solutions, and opposition to red flag provisions without explicit due-process protections. Has supported concealed-carry reciprocity and other pro-gun measures. Positions prioritize gun rights and law-enforcement approaches over new federal restrictions.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

Ron Estes is in the news because Democrats are targeting his Kansas 4th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House race. A Democratic challenger says President Donald Trump’s policies could make the seat more competitive, and he is criticizing Estes as the campaign takes shape. The district has stayed Republican for decades, but the race is drawing early attention ahead of the filing deadline.

history.house.gov+38

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$2.3M
$1.7M
$1.1M
$572.0K
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$1.9M
$943.6K
$1.8M
$73.8K

Cycle 2024

$2.3M
$1.2M
$2.0M
$84.7K

Cycle 2026

$1.9M
$1.8M
$1.3M
$68.2K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Polls
  • Endorsements