Prediction Edge
Republican
Russell Fry

Russell Fry

Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in South Carolina

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Russell Fry is trading at 14% to win the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary: 1st place (1st round) on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age41 years old (Jan 31, 1985)

GenderMale

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LocationSouth Carolina

BackgroundAttorney

EducationUniversity of South Carolina (B.A.), 2007

Notable personal detailsRussell William Fry is an American politician and attorney serving as the U.S. Representative for South Carolina’s 7th Congressional District (first elected in 2022; in office since January 3, 2023). He previously served in the South Carolina House of Representatives (District 106) from 2015 to 2022, including as Chief Majority Whip. He earned a B.A. from the University of South Carolina and a J.D. from Charleston School of Law, and practiced law on the Grand Strand.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Russell Fry supports tax cuts and tax relief, especially for working families and businesses. He has backed extending Trump-era tax policies, described lower taxes and less red tape as a priority, and supported measures opposing a carbon tax and other tax increases.

Healthcare

Russell Fry opposes a one-size-fits-all government-run healthcare program and says affordable care should come through personalized care, transparency, choice, and competition. His public health position emphasizes market-based solutions rather than single-payer coverage.

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Immigration & Border

Russell Fry advocates a hardline border-security approach focused on finishing the southern border wall, increasing law enforcement presence, strengthening immigration laws, and cracking down on human trafficking and drug smuggling. He also supported legislation to tighten oversight of unaccompanied alien children and keep some children from being released to sponsors when gang ties or criminal history are found.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Russell Fry identifies with pro-life legislation in his official biography. His congressional record includes cosponsoring a bill to prohibit taxpayer-funded abortions and supporting other anti-abortion measures.

Climate & Energy

Russell Fry’s public record emphasizes American energy production and opposition to energy-efficiency mandates and related climate-policy restrictions. He has also supported legislation to repeal home electrification subsidies, streamline environmental review, and expand mining and power reliability measures.

Public Safety & Guns

Russell Fry has publicly aligned himself with pro-Second Amendment positions and has promoted legislation to let law-enforcement officers buy retired service weapons. His public record shows support for measures framed as protecting gun rights rather than expanding gun restrictions.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 6, 2026

Russell Fry is in the news because he has entered South Carolina’s special Republican U.S. Senate primary to replace the late Lindsey Graham. He is part of a crowded field that includes Ralph Norman, Mark Sanford, Mark Lynch and Darline Graham, with early voting underway and the primary set for Aug. 11. Fry is also one of the candidates selected for the party’s debate ahead of the vote. The race could still go to a runoff on Aug. 25 if no one wins outright.

history.house.gov+54

Latest Polls

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Russell Fry currently averages 12.1%, ranking second in this race, 5.0 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 12.1%Position: secondMargin: -5.0 ptsLatest poll: 16.0% (Jul 28 - 30)Polls included: 8

Average recalculated from polls through Jul 28 - 30.

Polling Average
20%15%10%5%0%
12.1%
17.1%
Russell Fry
R. Fry
Ralph Norman
R. Norman
Date (Start - End)SpreadFryNorman
Polling Average
Norman+5.0
12.1%17.1%
co/efficientJul 28 - 30
Fry+1.0
16.0%15.0%
Trafalgar GroupJul 28 - 30
Norman+0.0
17.4%17.4%
Emerson CollegeJul 28 - 29
Norman+8.1
17.3%25.4%
Innovative Communication StrategiesJul 20 - 21
Norman+6.9
11.7%18.6%
Resonance Media ServicesJul 21 - 21
Norman+9.7
7.2%16.9%
Peak InsightsJul 18 - 20
Norman+4.0
9.0%13.0%
Emerson CollegeJul 14 - 15
Norman+5.1
9.0%14.1%
Emerson CollegeJul 14 - 15
Norman+7.0
9.4%16.4%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

Endorsers of Russell Fry for South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

Lindsey Graham

Public figure

Lindsey Graham endorsed Russell Fry for Senate re-election.

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Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$1.7M
$1.3M
$860.4K
$430.2K
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$1.4M
$209.7K
$1.2M
$50.8K

Cycle 2024

$1.5M
$561.2K
$1.2M
$48.3K

Cycle 2026

$1.7M
$1.0M
$1.2M
$69.1K

Source: FEC