Prediction Edge
Democrat
Sam Lux

Sam Lux

Democratic candidate for U.S. House in Montana

Live Odds — MT-02 Democratic nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

3%chance to win

$1.4KJUN 3, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleHorse farrier

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyProgressive Democrat

LocationMontana

BackgroundHorse farrier

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Notable personal detailsSam Lux is a Democratic candidate for the U.S. House in Montana’s 2nd Congressional District (MT-02) in the 2026 election cycle. He has described himself as a working-class candidate and has run a campaign under the name “Lux For Montana,” based in Great Falls. His campaign has emphasized rejecting corporate PAC money and focusing on issues including health care access, public lands, housing affordability, education, and rural communities.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports redirecting public subsidies away from large, profitable corporations toward programs that help working families and wants Congress to use its spending powers to address affordability and healthcare without raising overall tax dollars. Expresses concern that corporations contribute too little to federal revenue and emphasizes protecting working-class incomes and raising corporate accountability.

Healthcare

Supports building a single-payer system and expanding access to universal basic coverage for Americans. Emphasizes redirecting funding toward a public system rather than private insurance approaches.

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Immigration & Border

Sam Lux supports fixing the legal immigration system so border security can focus on criminal threats rather than bureaucratic failures and has criticized aggressive federal immigration-enforcement tactics. His campaign frames immigration reform in terms of improving legal pathways and addressing a broken system while recognizing the need for enforcement to target crime.

Climate & Energy

Supports building clean energy, protecting public lands, investing in energy independence, and taking the climate crisis seriously while emphasizing job protection and rural communities.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedSep 2, 2026

Sam Lux is in the news because he is running in Montana’s 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary. The race changed when Jonathan Windy Boy dropped out after sexual abuse allegations, leaving Lux and Brian Miller in the contest. Recent coverage around Montana politics also points to heavy outside spending and broader party infighting, but it does not give many new details about Lux himself.

fec.gov+43

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$15.1K
$11.3K
$7.5K
$3.8K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$15.1K
$5.7K
$9.6K
$532.48

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Polls
  • Endorsements