Prediction Edge
RepublicanTrump Endorsed
Toby Doeden

Overview

Current roleBusiness executive

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

GenderMale

LocationSouth Dakota

Show more

BackgroundBusiness executive

Notable personal detailsToby Doeden is a South Dakota businessman based in Aberdeen and a Republican candidate for governor in the 2026 election cycle. He is associated with the Aberdeen Chrysler Center and the Doeden Investment Group, and has been active in conservative politics through the Dakota First Action PAC. He is married to Elizabeth Doeden and has four children.

SourcesShow

Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Advocates eliminating property taxes statewide, reducing the size of state government and spending, and preserving/codifying South Dakota sales-tax measures while proposing alternative consumption-based revenue sources to replace property tax revenue.

Immigration & Border

Supports aggressive enforcement measures against undocumented immigrants, including accelerating arrests and deportations; emphasizes combating illegal immigration and border security.

Show more

Climate & Energy

The candidate emphasizes free‑market energy and economic policy, opposes large state subsidies or corporate welfare for energy projects, and has supported political efforts skeptical of major carbon‑capture pipeline projects. Policy statements focus on limiting government incentives and promoting a business climate without special favors rather than endorsing aggressive emissions regulations or expansive clean‑energy mandates.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate expresses strong support for the Second Amendment and says he will stand up for the right to bear arms. He emphasizes prioritizing public safety by supporting law enforcement and upholding law and order, without proposing new gun-restrictive measures on his issues pages.

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 16, 2026

Toby Doeden is in the news because he finished first in South Dakota’s Republican governor primary with about 31% of the vote, forcing a runoff on July 28 against Gov. Larry Rhoden. He has also publicly criticized the state’s runoff law after falling short of the 35% threshold needed to win outright. The runoff will decide the GOP nominee for the 2026 governor race.

tobydoeden.com+52

Polls

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?
Polling Average
40%30%20%10%0%
18.4%
27.4%
24.7%
13.1%
Toby Doeden
T. Doeden
Dusty Johnson
D. Johnson
Larry Rhoden
L. Rhoden
Jon Hansen
J. Hansen
Date (Start - End)SpreadDoedenJohnsonRhodenHansen
Polling Average
Johnson+9.0
18.4%27.4%24.7%13.1%
The Public Sentiment InstituteMay 26 - 27
Rhoden+9.0
23.6%26.4%32.6%14.1%
The Public Sentiment InstituteMay 26 - 27
Rhoden+8.4
24.0%27.2%32.4%13.2%
Meeting Street InsightsMay 18 - 20
Rhoden+1.0
22.0%19.0%23.0%21.0%
Emerson CollegeMay 18 - 19
Doeden+3.0
26.3%23.3%19.0%16.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 7 - 11
Johnson+16.6
17.4%34.0%17.0%17.8%
Emerson CollegeMar 7 - 9
Johnson+10.5
17.6%28.1%16.6%13.6%
Public Opinion StrategiesMar 2 - 5
Johnson+17.0
16.0%33.0%28.0%10.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyOct 16 - 20
Johnson+13.0
15.0%28.0%27.0%10.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 9 - 11
Johnson+24.0
4.0%28.0%27.0%2.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?

Endorsers of Toby Doeden for South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?

Donald Trump

Public figure

Donald Trump endorsed Toby Doeden in the South Dakota Republican gubernatorial primary runoff.

Learn more

Bob Russell

Public figure

Bob Russell endorsed Toby Doeden in the South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff.

Learn more

Stace Nelson Haugaard

Public figure

Stace Nelson Haugaard endorsed Toby Doeden in the South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff.

Learn more

Christine Erickson

Elected official

Christine Erickson endorsed Toby Doeden for governor.

Learn more

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Fundraising