Prediction Edge
Republican
Toby Doeden

Overview

Current roleBusiness executive

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

GenderMale

LocationSouth Dakota

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BackgroundBusiness executive

Notable personal detailsToby Doeden is a South Dakota businessman based in Aberdeen and a Republican candidate for governor in the 2026 election cycle. He is associated with the Aberdeen Chrysler Center and the Doeden Investment Group, and has been active in conservative politics through the Dakota First Action PAC. He is married to Elizabeth Doeden and has four children.

SourcesShow

Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Advocates eliminating property taxes statewide, reducing the size of state government and spending, and preserving/codifying South Dakota sales-tax measures while proposing alternative consumption-based revenue sources to replace property tax revenue.

Immigration & Border

Supports aggressive enforcement measures against undocumented immigrants, including accelerating arrests and deportations; emphasizes combating illegal immigration and border security.

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Climate & Energy

The candidate emphasizes free‑market energy and economic policy, opposes large state subsidies or corporate welfare for energy projects, and has supported political efforts skeptical of major carbon‑capture pipeline projects. Policy statements focus on limiting government incentives and promoting a business climate without special favors rather than endorsing aggressive emissions regulations or expansive clean‑energy mandates.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate expresses strong support for the Second Amendment and says he will stand up for the right to bear arms. He emphasizes prioritizing public safety by supporting law enforcement and upholding law and order, without proposing new gun-restrictive measures on his issues pages.

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 4, 2026

Toby Doeden has advanced to the South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff after finishing first in the June 2 primary with 31% of the vote. Because no candidate reached the 35% threshold, he will face Gov. Larry Rhoden in the July 28 runoff for the party nomination. Doeden has also publicly criticized the runoff law after falling short of an outright win.

tobydoeden.com+50

Polls

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?
Polling Average
40%30%20%10%0%
18.4%
27.4%
24.7%
13.1%
Toby Doeden
T. Doeden
Dusty Johnson
D. Johnson
Larry Rhoden
L. Rhoden
Jon Hansen
J. Hansen
Date (Start - End)SpreadDoedenJohnsonRhodenHansen
Polling Average
Johnson+9.0
18.4%27.4%24.7%13.1%
The Public Sentiment InstituteMay 26 - 27
Rhoden+9.0
23.6%26.4%32.6%14.1%
The Public Sentiment InstituteMay 26 - 27
Rhoden+8.4
24.0%27.2%32.4%13.2%
Meeting Street InsightsMay 18 - 20
Rhoden+1.0
22.0%19.0%23.0%21.0%
Emerson CollegeMay 18 - 19
Doeden+3.0
26.3%23.3%19.0%16.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 7 - 11
Johnson+16.6
17.4%34.0%17.0%17.8%
Emerson CollegeMar 7 - 9
Johnson+10.5
17.6%28.1%16.6%13.6%
Public Opinion StrategiesMar 2 - 5
Johnson+17.0
16.0%33.0%28.0%10.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyOct 16 - 20
Johnson+13.0
15.0%28.0%27.0%10.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 9 - 11
Johnson+24.0
4.0%28.0%27.0%2.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?

Endorsers of Toby Doeden for South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?

Turning Point Action

Elected official

Turning Point Action endorsed Toby Doeden for South Dakota governor.

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New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Fundraising