Prediction Edge
Republican
Tom Leonard

Tom Leonard

Republican candidate for Governor in Michigan

Live Odds — Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

0%chance to win

$1.3MAUG 11, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleFormer State Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age45 years old (Apr 20, 1981)

GenderMale

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LocationMichigan

BackgroundAttorney

EducationUniversity of Michigan — B.A., History

Notable personal detailsTom Leonard is a Michigan attorney and Republican politician who served in the Michigan House of Representatives (2013–2018), including as Speaker of the House. He previously worked as an assistant prosecutor in Genesee County and later served as an assistant attorney general. Leonard was the Republican nominee for Michigan attorney general in 2018 and ran again for the office in 2022, and he later entered the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial race before ending that campaign in April 2026.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports major tax cuts including an immediate cut of the state income tax to 3.9% with a plan to phase it out completely, lowering property taxes, eliminating corporate welfare and state tax subsidies for targeted companies, and repealing tax breaks for data centers. Proposes redirecting certain revenues to roads and reducing regulations to lower costs. Advocates shrinking targeted business incentives and tying utility and energy policy reforms to lower consumer costs.

Healthcare

Supports expanding mental-health services and access across Michigan, including tele-mental-health in schools, stronger treatment courts, and increased funding/long-term supports for people with mental illness. Emphasizes reducing stigma and improving access to treatment rather than criminalizing mental illness. Policy proposals focus on state-led expansion of behavioral health programs and telehealth access rather than wholesale market changes or privatization.

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Immigration & Border

The candidate supports strengthened border enforcement and aligns with President Trump’s border policies, indicating backing for tougher border security measures. Public campaign materials and news coverage emphasize a law-and-order approach on immigration without detailing proposals for expanded legal pathways or regularization.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Opposes Roe v. Wade and has a pro-life voting record; has said he would enforce Michigan's 1931 abortion ban and has expressed opposition to the Griswold v. Connecticut decision protecting contraception. Leonard has received endorsements from pro-life groups during past campaigns.

Climate & Energy

Supports an all-of-the-above energy approach that emphasizes energy choice and competition, including expanded nuclear power and completing the Line 5 tunnel, and calls for repealing recent statewide “net zero” and renewable energy siting mandates. Proposes reforming the Michigan Public Service Commission, capping rate increases, prioritizing reliability, and restricting large-scale renewable development and data center incentives to protect affordability and local control.

Public Safety & Guns

Advocates for expanded gun rights including constitutional carry and opposes red flag-style laws while emphasizing support for law enforcement and hunting heritage. Campaign materials and public statements emphasize removing licensing fees and protecting Second Amendment rights.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 4, 2026

Tom Leonard is running in Michigan’s crowded Republican primary for governor, and recent coverage has focused on his campaign pitch, including a proposal to appoint an Upper Peninsula ambassador if elected. He has also been appearing at GOP events, including a rally for a state Senate special election candidate. More recent election coverage places him in the broader 2026 Michigan race landscape as Republicans face a tougher political environment.

legislature.mi.gov+41

Latest Polls

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Tom Leonard currently averages 2.1%, ranking 7th in this race, 0.1 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 2.1%Position: 7thMargin: -0.1 ptsLatest poll: 2.6% (Apr 24 - 24)Polls included: 11

Average recalculated from polls through Apr 24 - 24.

Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
38.3%
30%
14.2%
8.5%
Tom Leonard
T. Leonard
John James
J. James
Tudor Dixon
T. Dixon
Perry Johnson
P. Johnson
Mike Cox
M. Cox
Aric Nesbitt
A. Nesbitt
Kevin Rinke
K. Rinke
Date (Start - End)SpreadLeonardJamesDixonJohnsonCoxNesbittRinke
Polling Average
James+36.2
2.1%38.3%30.0%14.2%8.5%4.2%2.3%
Glengariff GroupApr 24 - 24
James+34.4
2.6%37.0%–19.8%9.9%6.9%–
Emerson CollegeApr 11 - 13
Johnson+17.7
3.7%20.2%–21.4%10.2%2.8%–
1892 PollingMar 25 - 26
James+25.0
1.0%26.0%–21.0%6.0%4.0%–
JMC AnalyticsMar 21 - 23
James+20.0
3.0%23.0%–20.0%6.0%5.0%–
OnMessageMar 16 - 19
James+36.0
1.0%37.0%–19.0%10.0%4.0%–
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsNov 18 - 21
James+43.0
5.0%48.0%––11.0%2.0%–
Rosetta Stone CommunicationsOct 23 - 25
James+41.0
3.0%44.0%–4.0%13.0%6.0%4.0%
OnMessageAug 18 - 21
James+54.0
1.0%55.0%–0.0%7.0%3.0%1.0%
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsMar 13 - 13
James+30.0
1.0%31.0%30.0%8.0%10.0%5.0%–
OnMessageMar 9 - 11
James+53.0
1.0%54.0%––6.0%2.0%1.0%
OnMessageJan 17 - 19
James+45.0
1.0%46.0%––4.0%6.0%3.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements
  • Fundraising