Prediction Edge
Democrat
Tom Malinowski

Tom Malinowski

Democratic candidate for U.S. House in New Jersey

Live Odds — NJ-11 special Democratic nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

1%chance to win

$2.3MJAN 1, 2027

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleFormer U.S. Representative

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyModerate Democrat

Age60 years old (Sep 23, 1965)

GenderMale

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LocationNew Jersey

BackgroundPolitician

EducationB.A., University of California, Berkeley (1987)

Notable personal detailsTom Malinowski is an American politician and former diplomat who represented New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2019 to 2023. He previously served in senior foreign-policy and human-rights roles, including as Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor (2014–2017) and as a senior director at the National Security Council (1998–2001). Born in Słupsk, Poland, he later grew up in Princeton, New Jersey and earned a B.A. from the University of California, Berkeley and an M.Phil. from Oxford University as a Rhodes Scholar.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports restoring SALT deductions for New Jersey homeowners, backing targeted tax changes to make large corporations and the wealthy pay more (including support for a minimum corporate tax and votes for measures that fund investments paid for by closing tax loopholes). Advocates policies to lower costs for families (healthcare, childcare) while financing investments through tax code changes aimed at wealthy individuals and corporations.

Healthcare

Supports expanding and protecting the Affordable Care Act, lowering prescription drug costs through Medicare negotiation, and creating a public Medicare-style buy-in or public option that Americans can choose while preserving private insurance. Prioritizes cracking down on insurer practices, capping premiums, and expanding access rather than eliminating private plans. Commits to defending Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security from cuts.

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Immigration & Border

Supports protections for Dreamers and DACA, opposes family separation and the travel ban, opposes a border wall as wasteful, and favors bipartisan comprehensive reform that combines stronger border security funding with humane immigration processes and a pathway to legal status for certain immigrants. Holds votes supporting humanitarian assistance and border security funding while criticizing harsh enforcement practices.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports protecting and expanding access to abortion and reproductive healthcare, including codifying the protections of Roe v. Wade into federal law and opposing national bans that would criminalize women and providers.

Climate & Energy

Supports Paris Agreement goals, federal regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, and significant federal investment in clean energy and climate resilience while accepting transitional fossil fuel use; opposes fossil fuel subsidies and has backed bills to keep the U.S. engaged in international climate commitments. Has supported measures like the Climate Action Now Act and voted for major Democratic climate-related legislation.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports reinstating a federal assault weapons ban, expanding background checks and raising the minimum age for some gun purchases, and enacting nationwide red flag and safe-storage requirements as part of a comprehensive gun violence prevention platform.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedSep 2, 2026

Tom Malinowski is in the news because he finished second in the New Jersey 11th District Democratic primary, with Analilia Mejia leading him and Malinowski conceding before results were certified. The primary set up a special election for the seat, which Mejia later won, keeping the district in Democratic hands. The reports do not show Malinowski as the winner of the race, but they do indicate he was a major contender in the primary.

history.house.gov+48

Latest Polls

NJ-11 special Democratic nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

GQR
40%30%20%10%0%
28%
12%
5%
5%
Tom Malinowski
T. Malinowski
Brendan Gill
B. Gill
Analilia Mejia
A. Mejia
Tahesha Way
T. Way
John Bartlett
J. Bartlett
Zach Beecher
Z. Beecher
Date (Start - End)SpreadMalinowskiGillMejiaWayBartlettBeecher
GQRNov 19 - 23
Malinowski+16.0
28.0%12.0%5.0%5.0%2.0%1.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$1.5M
$1.1M
$761.5K
$380.7K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$1.5M
$20.1K
$1.5M
$83.5K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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