Prediction Edge
RepublicanIncumbent
Tom McClintock

Tom McClintock

Incumbent Republican candidate for U.S. House in California

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Tom McClintock is trading at 95% to win the CA-05 House winner? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age70 years old (Jul 10, 1956)

GenderMale

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LocationCalifornia

BackgroundPolitician

EducationUniversity of California, Los Angeles (B.A., 1978)

Notable personal detailsThomas Miller McClintock II is a Republican member of the U.S. House of Representatives, serving since 2009 and currently representing California’s 5th Congressional District. Before Congress, he served in the California State Assembly (1982–1992; 1996–2000) and California State Senate (2000–2008). He earned a B.A. from the University of California, Los Angeles in 1978 and previously worked as a journalist and public policy analyst.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Opposes tax increases and supports major tax cuts and pro-growth tax policies, including the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017; has signed pledges to oppose new income tax increases and argues for smaller government spending and lower taxes.

Healthcare

Tom McClintock has repeatedly supported repeal of the Affordable Care Act and backed Republican replacement proposals that increase market-based mechanisms and reduce federal involvement in health care. His voting record and public statements favor rolling back ACA provisions and pursuing private-market reforms rather than expanded government programs.

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Immigration & Border

The candidate emphasizes strict enforcement of immigration laws, prioritizing border security and deportation over broad legalization measures. He supports limiting asylum claims, restricting sanctuary policies, and increasing enforcement actions and penalties to reduce illegal immigration. He has framed immigration as a public-safety and economic concern and has led subcommittee efforts focused on restoring and expanding enforcement.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Tom McClintock is pro-life and supports restricting abortion; he joined a large group of members of Congress in filing amicus briefs backing state restrictions and has previously opposed public funding for abortion and supported parental-notification and other limits.

Climate & Energy

The candidate questions the role of human activity in climate change, has opposed EPA regulation of greenhouse gases, and has supported reducing federal funding for renewable energy programs while backing policies favorable to fossil-fuel production and permitting. His congressional record includes votes and amendments aimed at limiting climate regulation and cutting Department of Energy renewable/nuclear program funding. Environmental scorecards show low pro-environment scores across multiple Congresses.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports strong Second Amendment protections and opposes expansive new federal gun regulations while backing measures that protect lawful gun owners from what he describes as overbroad ATF rules and regulatory actions. Has cosponsored and supported legislation and actions that limit federal gun-regulatory actions (e.g., opposing ATF rules and the ‘ghost gun’ regulatory rule).

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

Tom McClintock is being reported as the vote leader in California’s 5th U.S. House district primary. The latest count suggests he is ahead in the 2026 primary race, though the overall picture is still based on late-counted ballots and could continue to shift as more votes are tallied.

history.house.gov+53

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$1.7M
$1.3M
$837.0K
$418.5K
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$1.7M
$137.5K
$1.7M
$71.1K

Cycle 2024

$1.2M
$148.2K
$1.2M
$48.3K

Cycle 2026

$928.8K
$201.5K
$875.5K
$48.6K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Polls
  • Endorsements