Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
38.5%
22%
Saved Kalshi settlement results
These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.
Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
MT-02 House winner?
The selected contract has a verified final result.
Final: Yes
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC
Republican
Incumbent
IncumbentTroy Downing
Incumbent Republican candidate for U.S. House in Montana
$10.9K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Saved odds — MT-02 House winner?
Prediction-market probability saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
99%chance to win
$10.9KNOV 7, 2026Candidate Overview
Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.
Current roleU.S. Representative
PartyRepublican
Political ideologyTrump-aligned Republican
Age59 years old (Mar 4, 1967)
GenderMale
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LocationMontana
BackgroundU.S. Representative
EducationNew York University (attended)
Notable personal detailsTroy Bryan Downing is a Republican U.S. Representative for Montana’s 2nd congressional district, serving since January 3, 2025. He previously served as Montana State Auditor (Commissioner of Securities and Insurance). Downing is a U.S. Air Force and California Air National Guard veteran (2001–2009) and has worked as a research scientist/educator and as a business owner.
SourcesShowHide
history.house.govcongress.govdowning.house.govlinkedin.comen.wikipedia.orgtroydowning.comcommons.wikimedia.orgbranch.voteapps.montanafreepress.orgmtgop.orgclerk.house.govarc.lib.montana.edunrcc.orgcsimt.govleg.mt.govbloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.commy.lwv.orgde.wikipedia.orgmtpr.orgpowactionfund.orgfec.govthecandidate.comgroco.comprojects.montanafreepress.orgdocquery.fec.govhome.treasury.govtoday.troy.edufreshproduce.comfinance.senate.govbroadbandmt.comgovinfo.govuschamber.comfacebook.comsubscriber.politicopro.cominstagram.comktvh.comdailymontanan.comeenews.netmontanafreepress.orgthehill.comkulr8.comnbcmontana.comnypost.comhelenair.combillingsgazette.compublicdomain.mediacryptobriefing.comx.comhouse.govjustfacts.votesmart.orgdisclosures-clerk.house.govagriculture.house.govdocs.house.gov
Political Positions
LiberalConservative
Economy & Taxes
Troy Downing supports lower taxes, reduced government regulation, and pro-growth economic policies. He has also backed eliminating the estate tax and cutting unnecessary federal bureaucracy to support family farms and small businesses.
Healthcare
He supports market-driven healthcare reforms rather than a government-run system. His stated priorities include Health Savings Accounts, telemedicine, value-based care, transparency in drug and insurance pricing, and protecting Medicare and Medicare Advantage while focusing on fiscal sustainability.
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Immigration & Border
Troy Downing says Congress should strengthen immigration laws and border security, including restructuring asylum rules and stopping some asylum seekers at the border if processing capacity is insufficient. He also supports reinstating Title 42-type rules, building physical barriers where necessary, deploying surveillance technology, and adding more Border Patrol agents.
Climate & Energy
Downing emphasizes energy independence, lower regulation, and an all-of-the-above energy approach. He says Montana should support reliable, affordable energy supply and economic growth, and he does not see a role for federal investment in climate action.
Public Safety & Guns
Downing has framed the right to bear arms as under attack and has listed the Second Amendment as a key campaign issue. In Congress, he has cosponsored the Veterans 2nd Amendment Protection Act to safeguard Second Amendment rights for veterans receiving VA assistance. ([mtpr.org](https://www.mtpr.org/montana-news/2018-02-15/montana-officials-candidates-react-to-florida-shooting?utm_source=openai))
Latest Polls
MT-02 House winner?
Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.
Troy Downing currently averages 38.5%, ranking first in this race, 16.5 points ahead of the nearest opponent.
Polling average: 38.5%Position: firstMargin: +16.5 ptsLatest poll: 29.0% (Oct 5 - 21)Polls included: 2
Average recalculated from polls through Oct 5 - 21.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign Fundraising
Latest report: Cycle 2026Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.
Total raisedCash on hand
$2.9M
$2.2M
$1.5M
$735.9K
$0
2024
2026
LatestYear
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate
Cycle 2024
$2.9M
$111.5K
$2.8M
$118.0K
Cycle 2026
$2.1M
$650.5K
$1.6M
$88.3K
Source: FEC
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