Prediction Edge
Republican
Michael Carbonara

Michael Carbonara

Republican candidate for U.S. House in Florida

Live Odds — FL-22 Republican nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

0%chance to win

$353.5KAUG 25, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleEntrepreneur

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

GenderMale

LocationFlorida

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BackgroundEntrepreneur

EducationUlster County Community College — Associate degree, Business Administration

Notable personal detailsMichael Carbonara is a Republican candidate for the U.S. House in Florida’s 22nd Congressional District in the 2026 election cycle. He is an entrepreneur with experience in finance and technology and has founded fintech and other businesses. He moved to Florida in 2012 and is based in South Florida. He is married and has two children.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports lowering taxes and reducing government bureaucracy, emphasizing relief for families facing inflation, high taxes, and regulatory burden. Frames his economic approach around private-sector experience and reducing government interference to help working families and businesses.

Healthcare

The candidate lists healthcare and "affordable healthcare" among his policy priorities and publishes explanatory materials about Medicare, Medicaid, and the ACA, but does not articulate a clear, specific policy prescription (for example: support for Medicare for All, a public option, Medicaid expansion, or full ACA repeal).

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Immigration & Border

The candidate emphasizes securing U.S. borders against illegal immigration, cracking down on criminals, drugs, and human trafficking, and supporting law enforcement. He also endorses a merit-based legal immigration policy that prioritizes an "America first" approach. These positions prioritize stronger enforcement while allowing for regulated legal immigration reforms.

Climate & Energy

The candidate’s campaign materials and blog posts mention climate impacts, resilience, and environmental responsibility but do not set out specific climate or energy policies (no targets, phasing plans, or regulatory positions). Public materials emphasize economic growth and local quality-of-life issues while noting climate and household energy choices as considerations rather than concrete legislative proposals.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate’s campaign site frames gun policy through a strong Second Amendment and Bruen-centered legal lens, emphasizing protection of gun rights and explaining how recent court decisions limit the scope for new restrictions. Public materials focus on preserving constitutional gun rights and informing readers about limits on regulation rather than proposing expanded federal gun-control measures.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 17, 2026

Michael Carbonara is in the news after reports that bogus copyright complaints may have been used to suppress coverage of his Florida 22nd Congressional District campaign by removing articles from Google search results. He has also been drawing attention for his pro-crypto message, including defending bitcoin mining and data centers while opposing a proposed Palm Beach project. Earlier reports said he sold 10 bitcoin to help self-fund his congressional bid, and that his campaign is being closely watched in a crowded race.

fec.gov+27

Latest Polls

FL-22 Republican nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Victory Insights
20%15%10%5%0%
11.4%
13.1%
8.7%
5.6%
Michael Carbonara
M. Carbonara
Casey Askar
C. Askar
David Burck
D. Burck
Terri Hasdorff
T. Hasdorff
Michael Thompson
M. Thompson
Richard Evans
R. Evans
Date (Start - End)SpreadCarbonaraAskarBurckHasdorffThompsonEvans
Victory InsightsAug 4 - 6
Askar+1.7
11.4%13.1%8.7%5.6%3.1%2.9%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

18
FL-22 Republican nominee?

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$6.3M
$4.7M
$3.2M
$1.6M
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$6.3M
$36.6K
$6.3M
$331.4K

Source: FEC