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MAY 20, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Gaines has ticked up to 90.8% in the Republican nominee market with primary day here, reinforcing his status as the clear front-runner in the open-seat race. That leaves Ryan Millsap’s upset path dependent on a real turnout surprise rather than a normal late-cycle move.
Gaines is now priced above 90% to win the Republican nomination, extending his already dominant lead on primary day. That leaves limited upside in the Millsap side unless turnout or late-breaking reporting produces a real surprise.
Gaines has firmed to 88% in the GA-10 Republican nomination market ahead of today’s primary, extending an already lopsided race that still features Trump and Chamber backing. The move matters because it leaves little room for a Millsap upset unless late turnout or a new surprise shifts the field.
Trump has endorsed Houston Gaines in the Georgia 10th District GOP primary, giving him a notable boost. At the same time, Ryan Millsap and Kasey Carpenter are dealing with damaging controversy. The primary is set for May 19, and the field remains crowded. Trump’s endorsement likely gives Gaines a boost, while the Millsap and Carpenter controversies may weaken those candidates. The race still looks competitive, with the field and vote split leaving some uncertainty.
Today is Friday, May 8, the 128th day of 2026. There are 237 days left in the year.
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Donald Trump
Donald Trump endorsed Houston Gaines in the Republican primary for Georgia's 10th congressional district.
Mike Johnson
Mike Johnson endorsed Houston Gaines in the Republican primary for Georgia's 10th congressional district.
H. GainesHouston GainesR. MillsapRyan MillsapSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
