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High Impact20d

Chris Carmichael

61%

Chris Carmichael is now leading with 61% odds in the Kansas 4th District Democratic nominee race, ahead by 58.0 points.

ActivePrimary ElectionDemocratic

Who will win the 2026 Kansas District 4 US House Democratic Primary?

Aug 5, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 55 daysLast updated: Jun 11, 2026, 8:23 PM UTC

KS-04 Democratic nominee?

$635.14

AUG 5, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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Discovery Insights Elections Candidates Calendar Watchlist

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$635

24h volume

C. Carmichael71%

R. Gilbert3%

J. Mitchell1%

Loading chart data...

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

August

TUE 4

Kansas 2026 primary

November

TUE 3

Kansas 2026 general election

Latest Insights

KS-04 Democratic nominee?

20dHigh Impact

Chris Carmichael is now leading with 61% odds in the Kansas 4th District Democratic nominee race, ahead by 58.0 points.

61%

News

AINews Summary

The newest KS-04-specific report centers on Democrat Chris Carmichael’s campaign and his case that Trump-era politics could make the seat more competitive. It also reiterates that the district has not elected a Democrat since 1994. Other recent stories are unrelated or too broad to move this market much. The latest KS-04 item offers little new evidence on the nomination race itself. It slightly reinforces the district’s long Republican lean, but does not clearly shift the Democratic nomination outlook.

Articles

RSRaw Story24 days ago

'Amateur hour': Trump's stunts put deep red House seat at risk for first time in 30 years

TOPEKA — Retired Air Force Col. Chris Carmichael believes he can defeat Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Estes in the 4th District congressional race, even though the incumbent won the seat by a 30-point margin two years ago.A Democrat hasn’t represented the Wichita-area district since Dan Glickman lost his...

SNSpringfield News-Leader20 days ago

MO voters to decide on sales tax, initiative petition limits in August

Missouri voters will decide on two controversial amendments in August that could change sales tax and citizen-led initiatives.

TDThe Daily Beast1 day ago

Trump’s Explosive Secret Plan to Stop Migrants Setting Foot on American Soil

Documents obtained by the Daily Beast’s sister Substack PunchUp reveal the new migrant strategy.

WEWashington Examiner7 days ago

Which party will recover first from its current self-harm?

Pundits and politicos have tried to draw conclusions from recent elections. But history advises caution.

SPSt. Paul Pioneer Press15 days ago

Where redistricting stands with millions put in new voting districts

A redistricting effort before the November elections has reshaped congressional voting districts for millions of Americans.

PPOLITICO15 days ago

‘I’m not going to cower’: Josh Shapiro on Antisemitism, 2028 and a Democratic Reset

Over South Philly pizza, the Pennsylvania governor dismissed talk of 2028 while laying out his vision for the Democratic Party.

ABAtlanta Black Star17 days ago

Six Years After George Floyd, Civil Rights Leaders Say America Made Promises It Never Intended to Keep

Six years ago, the world watched in horror as a white Minneapolis police officer pressed his knee into George Floyd’s neck for more than nine minutes,

Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Mar 31, 2026

$200K

$150K

$100K

$50K

K. Tyndell

C. Carmichael

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

K. TyndellKaty Tyndell

$138.9KContrib: $138.9K

$120.4KSpent: $18.5K

$1.2KLast period: $138.9K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

C. CarmichaelChris Carmichael

$85.4KContrib: $83.0K

$43.5KSpent: $42.0K

$2.8KLast period: $55.6K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

Polls
Endorsements

Who will win the 2026 Kansas District 4 US House Democratic Primary?

KS-04 Democratic nominee?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

KS-04 Democratic nominee?

News

'Amateur hour': Trump's stunts put deep red House seat at risk for first time in 30 years

MO voters to decide on sales tax, initiative petition limits in August

Trump’s Explosive Secret Plan to Stop Migrants Setting Foot on American Soil

Which party will recover first from its current self-harm?

Where redistricting stands with millions put in new voting districts

‘I’m not going to cower’: Josh Shapiro on Antisemitism, 2028 and a Democratic Reset

Six Years After George Floyd, Civil Rights Leaders Say America Made Promises It Never Intended to Keep

Fundraising

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Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

KS-04 Democratic nominee?

News

'Amateur hour': Trump's stunts put deep red House seat at risk for first time in 30 years

MO voters to decide on sales tax, initiative petition limits in August

Trump’s Explosive Secret Plan to Stop Migrants Setting Foot on American Soil

Which party will recover first from its current self-harm?

Where redistricting stands with millions put in new voting districts

‘I’m not going to cower’: Josh Shapiro on Antisemitism, 2028 and a Democratic Reset

Six Years After George Floyd, Civil Rights Leaders Say America Made Promises It Never Intended to Keep

Fundraising

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