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NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Oct 25, 2026, 4:28 AM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds and polling averages. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds | Poll average |
|---|---|---|
| 95% | 49.4% | |
| 6% | 39.6% |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
Cinde Warmington is now the Democratic nominee for New Hampshire governor and will challenge Gov. Kelly Ayotte in November. Early polling and fundraising reportedly favor Ayotte, and Cook rates the race as leaning Republican. Warmington’s nomination was expected and does not appear to have shifted the race much. The new information keeps the race tilted toward Republicans, with Ayotte still seen as the early favorite. Warmington’s nomination was expected, so it likely does little to change the market.
Democrats could have a strong November while Republicans still survive in unexpected places.
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Republican John E. Sununu, a former U.S. senator, and Democrat Chris Pappas, a member of the U.S. House, are vying to replace U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, whose decision not to seek reelection created a cascade of competitive races.
Cinde Warmington secured the Democratic nomination for New Hampshire governor while facing attacks over her past work as a Purdue Pharma attorney during the opioid crisis.
Democrats in Maine have a new nominee to take on long-time incumbent Sen. Susan Collins in a race that is pivotal for both parties to win a Senate majority.
Jackson will face incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, in the race that could determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.
The midterm elections may be challenging for Republicans, but there are some key House races where the GOP might turn the tables.
Polling results and averages based on polls published between Apr 17, 2026 and Oct 20, 2026.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
