Who will win the 2026 Pennsylvania Governor Republican Primary?

Stacy Garrity is unopposed on the Republican primary ballot for Pennsylvania governor, and coverage continues to frame her as the expected GOP general-election nominee. A write-in campaign is trying to draft Doug Mastriano into the primary despite his earlier decision not to run. New filings also show Shapiro with a large fundraising and cash-on-hand lead over Garrity. Garrity being unopposed on the ballot likely supports her as the clear favorite for the GOP nomination. The Mastriano write-in effort adds some uncertainty, but it’s unclear from the reports how much traction it has.