Prediction Edge
Republican
Aaron Guckian

Aaron Guckian

Republican candidate for Governor in Rhode Island

Live Odds — Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

16%chance to win

$15.5KSEP 9, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleTrade association executive

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyModerate Republican

LocationRhode Island

BackgroundTrade association executive

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EducationJohnson & Wales University (MBA)

Notable personal detailsAaron C. Guckian is a Rhode Island Republican candidate for governor in the 2026 election cycle and the party’s 2022 nominee for lieutenant governor. He has worked as a trade association executive, including as executive director of the Rhode Island Dental Association, and has held local public-service roles including chair of the Warwick Sewer Authority. He has also been involved in fundraising and nonprofit work in Rhode Island.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Aaron Guckian emphasizes restoring affordability by addressing Rhode Island’s tax structure and reducing fees; he frames government inefficiency as a driver of high costs and proposes improving government efficiency and tax structure to ease burdens on the middle class. His public messaging calls for fiscal discipline and using savings from efficiency improvements to lower taxes and fees.

Healthcare

Aaron Guckian has emphasized addressing Rhode Island’s health-care problems through bipartisan problem‑solving, improving reimbursement rates for medical and dental care, attracting and retaining medical professionals, and using technology and frontline incentives to reduce costs. He has not published a detailed, specific policy platform (e.g., support for Medicare for All, a public option, or explicit market‑first reforms) in the sources located. The available statements are general and focus on administrative and workforce improvements rather than clear ideological healthcare reforms.

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Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate says abortion rights in Rhode Island are settled policy and does not seek to change existing state law protecting abortion access. He has declined to make new proposals to restrict abortion while focusing his campaign on other issues.

Climate & Energy

Advocates replacing renewable-energy mandates with what he calls “practical clean energy,” favors increased competition in energy markets and electric-grid modernization, and opposes policies that he says raise energy costs while saying wind projects already under construction should not be halted.

Latest Candidate Updates

Recent changes in prediction-market odds, polling and campaign status.

Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee?

6d

Aaron Guckian is now the front-runner at 72%, with a 36-point lead over the prior leader.

72%

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

Aaron Guckian is drawing attention in Rhode Island’s Republican governor race, where party leaders have endorsed him and a new super PAC has formed to support him if he wins the primary. Recent polling cited in reports shows him trailing Elaine Pelino in the GOP primary, even as fundraising and outside support remain active. Earlier coverage also said he was ahead of Pelino in a separate Rhode Island Republican fundraising roundup.

aaronforri.com+50

Latest Polls

Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Aaron Guckian currently averages 17.0%, ranking second in this race, 22.5 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 17.0%Position: secondMargin: -22.5 ptsLatest poll: 17.0% (Aug 3 - 11)Polls included: 2

Average recalculated from polls through Aug 3 - 11.

Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
17%
39.5%
Aaron Guckian
A. Guckian
Elaine Pelino
E. Pelino
Robert Raimondo
R. Raimondo
Date (Start - End)SpreadGuckianPelinoRaimondo
Polling Average
Pelino+22.5
17.0%39.5%1.0%
Embold ResearchAug 3 - 11
Pelino+20.0
17.0%37.0%
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterJun 18 - 23
Pelino+25.0
17.0%42.0%1.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

1
Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee?

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Fundraising