Prediction Edge
Republican
Alexandra del Moral Mealer

Alexandra del Moral Mealer

Republican candidate for U.S. House in Texas

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Alexandra del Moral Mealer is trading at 85% to win the TX-09 House winner? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current rolePolitical candidate

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

GenderFemale

LocationTexas

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BackgroundPolitical candidate

EducationUnited States Military Academy at West Point

Notable personal detailsAlexandra del Moral Mealer is a Republican candidate for the U.S. House in Texas’ 9th Congressional District. She previously ran for Harris County Judge in 2022 and later joined the Metropolitan Transit Authority of Harris County (METRO) Board of Directors in March 2024. She is a U.S. Military Academy at West Point graduate and Army combat veteran, and has worked as a small business owner.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports pro-business, pro-industry economic policies and aligns with Republican/Trump economic priorities; emphasizes protecting and growing regional industry and infrastructure. Campaign materials and reporting describe priorities that favor supporting industry and unleashing private-sector economic growth rather than proposing new progressive tax increases. She has proposed using county revenues to fund expanded law enforcement staffing, indicating willingness to increase local spending on public safety within a pro-business framework.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate has not taken a clear, public position supporting or opposing statewide abortion restrictions; she has declined to stake out a detailed stance on Texas’ abortion ban while saying the county judge has limited authority over state abortion law and opposing use of county funds to transport people out of state for abortions. Campaign opponents have accused her of supporting the state ban, but those claims were not substantiated by a direct statement of support from the candidate.

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Climate & Energy

Supports protecting and promoting the petrochemical and energy industries as economic engines for Texas and emphasizes investing in infrastructure to sustain American industrial and technological leadership. No public campaign materials located that endorse aggressive emissions targets, Green New Deal–style legislation, or carbon-pricing measures. Policy language focuses on energy/industrial support, infrastructure, and economic priorities rather than regulatory climate action.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedSep 2, 2026

Alexandra del Moral Mealer won the Republican runoff in Texas’s newly redrawn 9th Congressional District, making her the GOP nominee for the seat. The district is expected to remain a strong Republican hold in the general election. Later coverage of Texas House races noted TX-34 as another targeted seat, but did not report any new development involving Mealer herself.

fec.gov+42

Latest Polls

TX-09 Republican nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Alexandra del Moral Mealer currently averages 24.5%, ranking second in this race, 3.8 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 24.5%Position: secondMargin: -3.8 ptsLatest poll: 29.0% (Feb 9 - 11)Polls included: 4

Average recalculated from polls through Feb 9 - 11.

Polling Average
40%30%20%10%0%
24.5%
28.3%
5.3%
5.3%
Alexandra del Moral Mealer
A. Mealer
Briscoe Cain
B. Cain
Steve Stockman
S. Stockman
Dan Mims
D. Mims
Dwayne Stovall
D. Stovall
Date (Start - End)SpreadMealerCainStockmanMimsStovall
Polling Average
Cain+3.8
24.5%28.3%5.3%5.3%3.3%
Pulse Decision ScienceFeb 9 - 11
Mealer+4.0
29.0%25.0%6.0%6.0%3.0%
University of Houston Hobby School of Public AffairsFeb 3 - 10
Mealer+8.0
34.0%26.0%4.0%10.0%4.0%
Pulse Decision SicenceDec 15 - 17
Cain+6.0
19.0%25.0%6.0%2.0%3.0%
McLaughlin & AssociatesOct 20 - 22
Cain+21.0
16.0%37.0%3.0%3.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$2.1M
$1.6M
$1.0M
$520.1K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$2.1M
$362.0K
$1.7M
$95.5K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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