Prediction Edge
Democrat
Amish Shah

Amish Shah

Democratic candidate for U.S. House in Arizona

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Amish Shah is trading at 79% to win the AZ-01 House winner? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleFormer State Representative

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyProgressive Democrat

GenderMale

LocationArizona

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BackgroundEmergency physician

EducationNorthwestern University (BA, Economics)

Notable personal detailsAmish Shah is an American physician and Democratic politician in Arizona. He served in the Arizona House of Representatives from January 14, 2019 to February 1, 2024, representing District 24 (2019–2023) and District 5 (2023–2024). He is an emergency medicine doctor and has run for U.S. House in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, including seeking the Democratic nomination again for the 2026 election cycle.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

The campaign emphasizes lowering costs for Arizonans, rolling back tariffs, and reducing taxes for middle‑class families. It cites Shah’s record of cutting taxes for middle‑class families in the Arizona State House and pledges to continue policies aimed at lowering costs rather than major tax increases or wealth redistribution.

Healthcare

Amish Shah has publicly endorsed universal single-payer healthcare/Medicare for All and has described healthcare as a right, while also discussing tradeoffs of different systems as a practicing physician. His past public remarks and campaign materials emphasize expanding access to affordable care.

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Immigration & Border

Supports increased funding and enforcement to secure the border, emphasizing stopping fentanyl trafficking and working across party lines to fund border security. Focus is on enforcement-oriented measures (funding, tougher fentanyl penalties) rather than expanded legal pathways or asylum protections.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports abortion access and reproductive rights, has a pro-choice voting record, and led efforts to protect access to abortion including work to protect access to the abortion pill and increase contraception access.

Climate & Energy

Supports climate action and has a record of voting and ratings consistent with pro-environment policies and clean-energy priorities while serving in the Arizona legislature. Receives positive ratings from environmental/climate organizations, and has supported water and environmental-related legislation. Campaign site emphasizes public-interest policy priorities but does not have a dedicated climate page.

Public Safety & Guns

Amish Shah has questioned giving special tax exemptions to firearm sales and emphasizes public safety in his campaign messaging, but there is no clear, comprehensive statement or legislative record found that details his positions on assault weapons bans, universal background checks, red flag laws, or other specific gun‑policy proposals. Public materials emphasize his work on public safety and border/fentanyl enforcement rather than a detailed firearms policy platform.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 2, 2026

Amish Shah won the Democratic primary in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District and will face Republican Jay Feely in a competitive general election for an open House seat. He has said the primary was damaging and that his campaign needs to change strategy and rebuild resources for November after negative attacks hurt his standing. The race is being closely watched as a toss-up that could help decide control of the U.S. House.

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Latest Polls

AZ-01 Democratic nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

HighGround
40%30%20%10%0%
32.5%
11%
Amish Shah
A. Shah
Marlene Galán-Woods
M. Galán-Woods
Mark Robert Gordon
M. Gordon
Jonathan Treble
J. Treble
Rick McCartney
R. McCartney
Date (Start - End)SpreadShahGalán-WoodsGordonTrebleMcCartney
HighGroundFeb 21 - 23
Shah+21.5
32.5%11.0%1.8%1.5%1.5%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$6.3M
$4.8M
$3.2M
$1.6M
$0

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2024

$6.3M
$91.8K
$6.3M
$260.5K

Cycle 2026

$1.8M
$401.7K
$1.5M
$80.0K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements