NY-21 House winner?
6hBlake Gendebien's odds are down 7.0 points and are now at 22% over a 3-day streak.
22%7%
Democrat
Blake Gendebien
Democratic candidate for U.S. House in New York
$53.1K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Live Odds
Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.
Blake Gendebien is trading at 22% to win the NY-21 House winner? on prediction markets.
Candidate Overview
Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.
Current roleDairy farmer
PartyDemocratic
GenderMale
LocationNew York
BackgroundDairy farmer
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EducationDegree in agriculture (institution not verified)
Notable personal detailsBlake Gendebien is a dairy farmer and small business owner from Lisbon, New York, and the owner-operator of Twin Mill Farms. He has served as vice chair of the cooperative board of Agri-Mark and has testified before the U.S. Senate Agriculture Subcommittee on Commodities, Risk Management, and Trade. He and his wife, Carmen, founded the Jules of Life Foundation, a pediatric cancer support nonprofit, and he has served on the Lisbon Central School Board.
SourcesShowHide
fec.govblakegendebienforcongress.comagriculture.senate.govwamc.orgelections.ny.govclintoncountyny.govsaratogacountyny.govadirondackdailyenterprise.comdeveloper.ballotpedia.orgwxxinews.orgwashingtoncountyny.govtimesunion.combluevoterguide.orgloc.govchancellor.ucsf.edulinkedin.comnews.gsu.eduballotready.orgstlcdemocrats.comny1.comwwnytv.comcongress.goven.wikipedia.orgcomptroller.nyc.govaljazeera.comdemocrats.orgconvention.socialists.nycwcax.comopencampaign.comarchive.phlcv.orgdocquery.fec.govdemos.orgmynbc5.comromesentinel.comwashingtonpost.comfacebook.cominstagram.comx.comcityandstateny.comnorthcountrypublicradio.orgwrvo.orgspectrumlocalnews.comcbs6albany.comnorthcountrynow.comwibx950.comnypost.comnews.ballotpedia.orgfr.wikipedia.orgvotesmart.orgjustfacts.votesmart.org
Political Positions
LiberalConservative
Economy & Taxes
Supports protecting Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid and backing tax credits that subsidize ACA marketplace plans; opposes tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy and emphasizes lowering costs for working families while supporting targeted help for small businesses and rural communities.
Healthcare
Supports strengthening and expanding access to healthcare (including protecting Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid), lowering prescription drug costs, expanding telehealth and rural access, and protecting abortion rights; states the Affordable Care Act improved his family’s healthcare.
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Immigration & Border
Supports strengthening border enforcement and removing criminals in the country while also creating legal pathways for workforce needs (particularly for farmers); favors hiring additional immigration judges and providing more resources to ICE and Border Patrol, and allowing state and local police to communicate with federal immigration authorities.
Abortion & Reproductive Rights
The candidate supports protecting a woman’s right to choose and opposes laws that impose total abortion bans, including bans that would prohibit abortion in cases of rape or when the life of the woman is at stake.
Climate & Energy
Supports agricultural sustainability measures and on-farm clean-energy technologies (e.g., anaerobic/biogas digesters) while emphasizing affordability and predictability for farmers; advocates participation in sustainability programs but expresses concern that costs can outweigh benefits. Positions prioritize pragmatic clean-energy solutions for rural/agricultural communities rather than opposing clean-energy transition.
Public Safety & Guns
Supports the Second Amendment and describes himself as a gun owner while endorsing universal background checks and safe-storage laws. Does not advocate confiscation of firearms and frames policy as balancing gun ownership with safety measures.
Latest Candidate Updates
Recent changes in prediction-market odds, polling and campaign status.
Latest News
AINews Summary
Last updatedSep 2, 2026
Blake Gendebien is now the Democratic nominee in New York’s 21st Congressional District and will face Republican Anthony Constantino in the general election. Recent coverage says the race is competitive and heavily funded, with both parties treating it as an important House contest. The district is also being watched as part of the broader fight for control of the U.S. House.
fec.gov+50
Articles
RSRolling Stone1 month ago
Anthony Constantino Is Everything Wrong With Politics in MAGA Era
Neutral
SGSchenectady Gazette1 month ago
Page A1
Neutral
Ssyracuse.com3 months ago
Trump-backed Constantino wins Republican primary in NY21 race to replace Stefanik
Neutral
WCWDIV ClickOnDetroit1 month ago
House Democrats add 12 solidly Trump districts to their midterm election target list
Neutral
Latest Polls
NY-21 House winner?
Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.
Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
42.8%
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign Fundraising
Latest report: Cycle 2026Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.
Total raisedCash on hand
$5.5M
$4.1M
$2.7M
$1.4M
$0
2024
2026
LatestYear
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate
Cycle 2024
$266.7K
$252.3K
$14.3K
$597.90
Cycle 2026
$5.5M
$2.6M
$3.1M
$171.7K
Source: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
- Endorsements