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Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.

Florida Governor winner?

The selected contract has a verified final result.

  • Byron Donalds

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Florida

    Selected market

    Final: Yes

    Settled Nov 4, 2026, 2:17 AM UTC

Republican
Byron Donalds

Byron Donalds

Republican candidate for Governor in Florida

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Saved odds — Florida Governor winner?

Prediction-market probability saved with this edition; no automatic updates.

68%chance to win

$16.9MNOV 7, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyTrump-aligned Republican

Age48 years old (Oct 28, 1978)

GenderMale

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LocationFlorida

BackgroundPolitician

EducationFlorida A&M University

Notable personal detailsByron Lowell Donalds (born October 28, 1978) is a Republican politician serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 19th congressional district (in office since January 3, 2021). He previously served in the Florida House of Representatives (2016–2020). Donalds attended Florida A&M University and earned a B.S. from Florida State University, and worked in the banking, finance, and insurance industries. He lives in Naples, Florida, with his wife, Erika, and their three sons.

SourcesShow
donalds.house.goven.wikipedia.orgbyrondonalds.comes.wikipedia.orgapnews.comnypost.comjustfacts.votesmart.orgbuchanan.house.govflvoicenews.comfloridapolitics.comaol.comontheissues.orgcongress.govbusinessinsider.compolitifact.comyahoo.comfloridadaily.comfoxnews.comtallahassee.commainstreetdailynews.comflchamber.comnbcmiami.compolitico.comwusf.orgthehill.comgainesville.commiamiherald.comfloridatrib.orgnytimes.comspectrumlocalnews.comfacebook.comyoutube.comballotpedia.orghistory.house.govclerk.house.govit.wikipedia.orgfr.wikipedia.orgcdn.ballotpedia.orgbioguide.congress.govdeveloper.ballotpedia.orgziplook.house.gov

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Advocates substantial tax reductions and a simplified, flatter tax code (including support for a Fair Tax), opposes tax increases on high earners, and has proposed lowering corporate and individual tax rates while supporting reductions or elimination of certain taxes (for example, advocating abolishing property taxes in Florida).

Healthcare

Opposes government-run single‑payer programs and calls for repeal of the Affordable Care Act, favoring market-based reforms such as allowing purchase of insurance across state lines and reducing federal mandates. Has voted against legislation to lower prescription drug costs and criticized expansion of ACA subsidies.

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Immigration & Border

Advocates strict enforcement-first immigration policies that prioritize securing the southern border, deporting undocumented immigrants convicted of crimes, and restricting legal immigration pathways (including seeking curbs on certain visa programs). Has sponsored and supported legislation to strengthen tracking/detention and increase DHS/ICE accountability and has opposed mass amnesty or carve-outs for undocumented workers.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Byron Donalds identifies as pro-life and supports protecting unborn children without exception. He has voted for born-alive protection legislation and voted against measures to expand federal abortion access. He has received high ratings from pro-life organizations and low ratings from pro-choice groups.

Climate & Energy

Supports an "all-of-the-above" energy approach focused on U.S. energy independence, strong federal support for expanded nuclear power, and removing regulatory barriers to domestic energy production; emphasizes protecting waterways locally while opposing what he calls ‘‘radical’’ climate policies and ESG-driven mandates.

Public Safety & Guns

Byron Donalds describes himself as a strong defender of the Second Amendment, opposes red-flag (risk-protection order) laws and voted against post-Parkland measures that raised the purchase age and created risk orders; he has said he would seek to repeal Florida’s red-flag law and supports expanding open carry.

Latest Candidate Updates

Recent changes in prediction-market odds, polling and campaign status.

Florida Governor winner?

9h

David Jolly’s Democratic win price rose to 37% while Byron Donalds slipped to 63%, and fresh Election Day reporting says the race is down to a close final stretch in Florida.

63%10%

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 19, 2026

Byron Donalds is the frontrunner in Florida’s Republican governor primary, with strong polling and fundraising heading into the Aug. 18 vote. Donald Trump has endorsed him, and Donalds has also challenged Democrat David Jolly to debates as the race shifts toward the general election. Recent coverage says affordability, housing, insurance, and taxes are the main campaign issues, while a civil assault lawsuit has also drawn attention to him during the campaign.

donalds.house.gov+40
Articles
NDNaples Daily News3 months ago

Trump endorsements for Florida primary election Day 2026

Positive
TTCPalm3 months ago

What are key voter issues in Florida governor's race?

Positive
NNews-Press3 months ago

Donalds wraps himself in Trump endorsement on way to Aug. 18 primary

Positive
NDNaples Daily News4 months ago

Byron Donalds calls for 3 Florida debates with David Jolly

Positive

Latest Polls

Florida Governor winner?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Byron Donalds currently averages 44.9%, ranking first in this race, 3.3 points ahead of the nearest opponent.

Polling average: 44.9%Position: firstMargin: +3.3 ptsLatest poll: 48.0% (Oct 31 - Nov 2)Polls included: 61

Average recalculated from polls through Oct 31 - Nov 2.

Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
44.9%
41.6%
Byron Donalds
B. Donalds
David Jolly
D. Jolly
Date (Start - End)SpreadDonaldsJolly
Polling Average
Donalds+3.3
44.9%41.6%
Research Co.Oct 31 - Nov 2
Donalds+4.0
48.0%44.0%
ActiVoteOct 20 - 31
Donalds+4.6
52.3%47.7%
RedBox ResearchOct 30 - 31
Donalds+1.0
47.0%46.0%
Big Data PollOct 26 - 30
Donalds+2.9
46.5%43.6%
Big Data PollOct 26 - 30
Donalds+3.2
47.4%44.2%
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchOct 26 - 30
Donalds+6.0
51.0%45.0%
InsiderAdvantageOct 28 - 29
Donalds+4.0
49.0%45.0%
Targoz Market ResearchOct 26 - 29
Donalds+7.0
50.0%43.0%
The Political Matrix/The Listener GroupOct 26 - 28
Donalds+1.5
40.3%38.8%
St. Pete PollsOct 25 - 27
Donalds+2.3
47.8%45.5%
The New York Times/Siena UniversityOct 19 - 25
Donalds+4.0
48.0%44.0%
Echelon InsightsOct 16 - 23
Donalds+6.0
50.0%44.0%
RedBox ResearchOct 20 - 23
Donalds+5.3
49.2%43.9%
Workbench StrategyOct 18 - 22
Donalds+2.0
48.0%46.0%
co/efficientOct 18 - 20
Donalds+9.0
49.0%40.0%
ActiVoteOct 1 - 19
Donalds+3.4
51.7%48.3%
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research LabOct 12 - 19
Donalds+2.0
49.0%47.0%
YouGovOct 2 - 15
Donalds+8.0
50.0%42.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesOct 8 - 11
Donalds+6.0
49.0%43.0%
Change ResearchOct 8 - 10
Donalds+0.0
47.0%47.0%
MDW CommunicationsOct 4 - 10
Donalds+2.0
46.0%44.0%
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchOct 1 - 9
Donalds+11.0
52.0%41.0%
St. Pete PollsOct 5 - 7
Donalds+0.1
44.7%44.6%
YouGovSep 28 - Oct 5
Donalds+2.0
47.0%45.0%
Targoz Market ResearchSep 28 - Oct 4
Donalds+10.0
52.0%42.0%
Targoz Market ResearchSep 28 - Oct 4
Donalds+9.0
48.0%39.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategySep 28 - Oct 1
Donalds+7.0
48.0%41.0%
Change ResearchSep 25 - 27
Jolly+2.0
46.0%48.0%
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchSep 14 - 21
Donalds+12.0
51.0%39.0%
St. Pete PollsSep 15 - 17
Donalds+0.1
43.5%43.4%
Change ResearchSep 7 - 9
Jolly+3.0
44.0%47.0%
Hart Research AssociatesAug 10 - 13
Jolly+1.0
45.0%46.0%
Targoz Market ResearchJul 20 - 26
Donalds+7.0
45.0%38.0%
Targoz Market ResearchJul 20 - 26
Donalds+4.0
40.0%36.0%
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research LabJul 8 - 17
Donalds+5.0
46.0%41.0%
Change ResearchJul 9 - 11
Jolly+1.0
40.0%41.0%
Change ResearchJul 9 - 11
Donalds+0.0
37.0%37.0%
Change ResearchJun 11 - 14
Jolly+6.0
43.0%49.0%
Change ResearchJun 11 - 14
Jolly+5.0
42.0%47.0%
Kaplan StrategiesJun 8 - 9
Donalds+5.1
34.9%29.8%
Change ResearchMay 13 - 16
Jolly+4.0
42.0%46.0%
Change ResearchMay 13 - 16
Jolly+4.0
42.0%46.0%
Change ResearchMay 13 - 16
Donalds+4.0
46.0%42.0%
Change ResearchMay 13 - 16
Donalds+2.0
43.0%41.0%
Cherry CommunicationsMay 1 - 9
Donalds+8.0
47.0%39.0%
The Public Sentiment InstituteApr 27 - 27
Donalds+0.0
40.0%40.0%
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchMar 25 - Apr 13
Donalds+7.0
47.0%40.0%
Echelon InsightsApr 3 - 9
Donalds+6.0
49.0%43.0%
MDW CommunicationsMar 27 - Apr 3
Donalds+0.7
41.2%40.5%
Emerson CollegeMar 29 - 31
Donalds+4.8
44.2%39.4%
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research LabFeb 21 - Mar 2
Donalds+6.0
42.0%36.0%
The Public Sentiment InstituteFeb 20 - 20
Donalds+2.7
36.7%34.0%
The Public Sentiment InstituteFeb 20 - 20
Jolly+6.5
35.8%42.3%
The Public Sentiment InstituteFeb 20 - 20
Donalds+3.5
35.7%32.2%
Targoz Market ResearchFeb 13 - 16
Donalds+5.0
41.0%36.0%
Targoz Market ResearchFeb 13 - 16
Donalds+2.0
36.0%34.0%
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research LabOct 15 - 25
Donalds+11.0
45.0%34.0%
Targoz Market ResearchSep 16 - 18
Donalds+4.0
36.0%32.0%
Bendixen & Amandi InternationalSep 7 - 9
Jolly+1.0
40.0%41.0%
McLaughlin & AssociatesAug 25 - 27
Donalds+8.0
49.0%41.0%
Victory InsightsJun 7 - 10
Donalds+5.3
36.7%31.4%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$6.6M
$5.0M
$3.3M
$1.7M
$0

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2024

$6.6M
$1.7M
$5.6M
$233.3K

Cycle 2026

$738.1K
$334.5K
$2.1M
$119.1K

Source: FEC

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