Prediction Edge
Democrat
Cait Conley

Cait Conley

Overview

Current roleU.S. Army officer

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyMainstream Democrat

GenderFemale

LocationNew York

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BackgroundU.S. Army officer

EducationUnited States Military Academy at West Point (B.S.)

Notable personal detailsCait Conley is a Democratic candidate for the U.S. House in New York’s 17th Congressional District. She is a U.S. Army combat veteran with six overseas deployments and has worked in national security roles including at the National Security Council and as a senior advisor at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). She is a graduate of the United States Military Academy at West Point and holds graduate degrees from Harvard Kennedy School and MIT.

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Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports federal investments to lower costs for families (infrastructure, housing, education, healthcare) and defends Medicaid/Medicare funding while opposing policies she says would raise costs for families. Endorses targeted federal funding and tax credits to support affordable housing and infrastructure rather than cuts to social programs.

Healthcare

Supports protecting and expanding the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid, expanding Medicare benefits (vision, dental, hearing), lowering prescription costs (capping insulin, allowing Medicare negotiation), and protecting reproductive healthcare including codifying Roe v. Wade. Emphasizes defending funding for hospitals, investing in veterans’ care, and opposing cuts to Medicaid and Medicare.

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Immigration & Border

Cait Conley’s campaign materials state she will work to “fix our broken immigration system” and prioritize a “safe and secure America,” but provide no detailed policy prescriptions on asylum, enforcement, or pathways to legal status. Public-facing statements on her site are general and do not clearly place her in an enforcement-first or reform/regularization policy camp.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports protecting reproductive freedom by codifying Roe v. Wade into federal law and ensuring access to abortion, contraception, and IVF; supports federal funding for Planned Parenthood and repeal of federal restrictions that cut Medicaid reimbursements to Planned Parenthood.

Climate & Energy

Supports treating climate change as a national security crisis and prioritizes clean energy investments (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal), grid modernization, flood mitigation, and federal funding for resilience and infrastructure updates to lower utility bills and create jobs. Advocates holding utilities accountable and removing regulatory barriers to move alternative energy projects forward. Does not explicitly endorse Green New Deal–style phasing out of fossil fuels in the cited materials.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports universal background checks and red flag laws, a ban on assault weapons, crackdowns on ghost guns, and funding for law enforcement as well as suicide prevention and community violence intervention programs.

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 17, 2026

Cait Conley won the Democratic primary in New York’s 17th Congressional District and will face Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in a closely watched House race. The contest is being seen as one of the most competitive in the country, with recent polling showing Conley ahead and prediction markets favoring her. The race has drawn extra attention because it could help decide control of the House.

fec.gov+49

Polls

NY-17 Democratic nominee?
Polling Average
30%20%10%0%
25.9%
21.7%
10%
9%
Cait Conley
C. Conley
Beth Davidson
B. Davidson
Peter Chatzky
P. Chatzky
Effie Phillips-Staley
E. Phillips-Staley
Mike Sacks
M. Sacks
John Cappello
J. Cappello
Date (Start - End)SpreadConleyDavidsonChatzkyPhillips-StaleySacksCappello
Polling Average
Conley+4.1
25.9%21.7%10.0%9.0%2.6%1.0%
Public Policy PollingJun 15 - 16
Conley+14.0
33.0%19.0%14.0%5.0%1.0%
Tavern ResearchJun 12 - 16
Conley+11.0
34.0%23.0%13.0%1.0%1.0%
Tavern ResearchJun 12 - 16
Conley+13.0
35.0%22.0%12.0%
Global Strategy GroupMay 7 - 12
Conley+7.0
29.0%22.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%
Data for ProgressApr 17 - 24
Davidson+11.0
15.0%26.0%8.0%
Impact ResearchFeb 24 - 26
Davidson+6.0
17.0%23.0%8.0%5.0%1.0%1.0%
Lake Research PartnersJan 27 - Feb 1
Conley+1.0
18.0%17.0%12.0%5.0%2.0%0.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

NY-17 Democratic nominee?

Endorsers of Cait Conley for NY-17 Democratic nominee?

American Federation of Teachers

Labor organization

American Federation of Teachers endorsed Cait Conley in the NY-17 Democratic primary.

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VoteVets

Public endorsement

VoteVets endorsed Cait Conley in the NY-17 Democratic primary.

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Sean Patrick Maloney

Public figure

Sean Patrick Maloney endorsed Cait Conley in the NY-17 race.

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Suzanne Berger

Public figure

Suzanne Berger endorsed Cait Conley for Congress in NY-17.

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End Citizens United

Public figure

End Citizens United endorsed Cait Conley for New York's 17th Congressional District.

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Future Forum PAC

Political organization

Future Forum PAC endorsed Cait Conley for Congress.

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LGBTQ+ Victory Fund

Public endorsement

LGBTQ+ Victory Fund endorsed Cait Conley in the NY-17 Democratic primary.

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Peekskill Democratic City Committee

Political organization

Peekskill Democratic City Committee endorsed Cait Conley in the NY-17 race.

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Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026
Total raisedCash on hand
$4.3M
$3.2M
$2.2M
$1.1M
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$4.3M
$1.3M
$3.0M
$166.6K

Source: FEC