Prediction Edge
Democrat
Carmela Conroy

Carmela Conroy

Democratic candidate for U.S. House in Washington

Live Odds — WA-05 House winner?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

16%chance to win

$43.1KNOV 7, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Foreign Service officer / diplomat

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyMainstream Democrat

GenderFemale

LocationWashington

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BackgroundU.S. Foreign Service officer / diplomat

EducationCentral Valley High School (Washington)

Notable personal detailsCarmela Conroy is an American diplomat and politician running as a Democrat for U.S. House in Washington’s 5th Congressional District. She is a former career U.S. Foreign Service officer and previously served as a Spokane County deputy prosecutor. Conroy was elected chair of the Spokane County Democratic Party in 2022 and resigned in January 2024 while campaigning for Congress. She was the Democratic nominee in WA-05 in 2024 and is running again in 2026.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports increased federal investment in social programs and protections to lower costs for families and rural hospitals, including restoring Medicare and Medicaid funding, extending Medicaid for children, and an inflation‑indexed federal minimum wage with paid leave. Prioritizes boosting American manufacturing, job training, and ending tariff disruptions to reduce consumer prices. Does not provide explicit proposals to raise taxes on high earners or corporations in the cited materials.

Healthcare

Supports protecting Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security; prioritizes lower health care costs, stronger rural hospitals, and more affordable health care access for working families. Emphasizes protecting veterans’ health care and expanding access to care in Eastern Washington.

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Immigration & Border

Supports immigration reform and federal enforcement of immigration laws while opposing mass sweeps or efforts to target people who stay out of trouble; favors family reunification and improving refugee resettlement support. Endorsed border-security legislation as a pragmatic step to address security and humanitarian concerns.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Carmela Conroy supports protecting abortion access and reproductive freedom and opposes federal limits on when a person can access the procedure. She frames defending reproductive freedom as a priority in her political activity and endorsements.

Climate & Energy

The candidate’s campaign materials emphasize economic investment in rural infrastructure and broadly cite support for clean energy and climate-related research, but provide few specific climate policy prescriptions or targets. Public comments (including a campaign AMA) indicate support for funding climate research and adaptation, but there is no clear record of backing major national climate frameworks or specific regulatory measures. Overall the position emphasizes local economic development and clean energy investment without detailed, aggressive climate policy commitments.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 9, 2026

Carmela Conroy is back in the race for Washington’s 5th Congressional District and is trying to advance through the top-two primary after losing her 2024 campaign. Recent local coverage has also included endorsements for her in the WA-05 race. The latest election reporting notes unusual overvotes in the district’s primary, but does not say how Conroy specifically was affected.

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Latest Polls

WA-05 House winner?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Tavern Research
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
47%
Carmela Conroy
C. Conroy
Date (Start - End)SpreadConroy
Tavern ResearchMay 18 - 25
47.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$604.6K
$453.4K
$302.3K
$151.1K
$0

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2024

$604.6K
$13.1K
$591.5K
$24.6K

Cycle 2026

$396.2K
$74.5K
$334.9K
$17.6K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements