Race Rating
Safe or unrated
Cook/270toWin 2026
Partisan lean: Safe Republican or unrated
ClosedGeneral Election
2026 Washington House Election Polls, Odds & Candidates
Election Day: Recorded market close:
WA-05 House winner?
$211.7K
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Race Snapshot
Compare the candidates' saved odds and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Saved odds | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|
| 78% | $1.74M | |
| 25% | $396.2K |
OddsSaved odds
Prices saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
Odds History
Total volume
$211.7K
24h volume
$19.4K
source: Kalshi
Politics IQ
Structural race context from reviewed jurisdiction data
Washington 5th District · US House
Safe or unratedSafe Republican or unratedDistrict context
Seat Dynamics
Incumbent defense
Incumbent: Michael Baumgartner (R)
Election Rules
Primary Aug 4, 2026
Runoff: No
General: Nov 3, 2026
Sources reviewed May 2, 2026 · Office of the Clerk · 270toWin/Cook · 270toWin · NCSL
Election Dates and Deadlines
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Latest Election News
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
AINews Summary
Carmela Conroy has won the WA-05 primary and will move on to the general election. The latest mention is only a newspaper note congratulating her and backing her for November. No other election-moving update for this race is reported here. Conroy’s primary win clarifies the general-election field, but the market impact is limited without any reported general-election polling or result. The race remains open based on the information provided.
Articles
SSSpokane Spokesman-Review3 days ago
Baumgartner, Conroy make last, sometimes dubious, pitches to voters as election looms
Congressman Michael Baumgartner and Democratic challenger Carmela Conroy are making their final cases to voters in a blur of last-minute mailers and ads.
WWTOP4 days ago
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota on Election Day
WASHINGTON (AP) — Minnesota voters will elect a new governor and new senator Tuesday after retirement announcements by two prominent Democrats caused a reshuffl
AAL.com3 months ago
Trump endorsed Republican loses in Tennessee: Blackburn wins governor’s primary
The primaries provided the first test of a House map redrawn after the Supreme Court weakened Voting Rights Act protections for minorities.
WCWDIV ClickOnDetroit5 months ago
South Carolina Republicans try to extend winning streak as Sen. Lindsey Graham seeks fifth term
South Carolina voters are narrowing down candidates in key races for governor and U.S. Senate.
Ccleveland.com15 days ago
Who raised the most in Northeast Ohio congressional races?
Among contests for seats in Congress from Northeast Ohio, one bucked the trend, with the challenger outraising the incumbent in the quarter before November's election.
BDBoulder Daily Camera1 month ago
Supreme Court rejects a Trump-backed Missouri congressional map again
The Supreme Court has rejected a new Missouri congressional map backed by President Donald Trump for the third time. The justices on Friday halted a last-minute revival of the Republican-friendly map by lower-court judges.
WCWDIV ClickOnDetroit1 month ago
Supreme Court rejects a Trump-backed Missouri congressional map for the third time
The Supreme Court has rejected a new Missouri congressional map backed by President Donald Trump for the third time.
SSSpokane Spokesman-Review3 months ago
Letters for Wednesday, Aug. 19
Government responsibility in fire recovery
Campaign Fundraising
Total RaisedCash on Hand
Jul 15, 2026$2M
$1.5M
$1M
$500K
$0
M. Baumgartner
C. Conroy
Candidate
Total Raised
Cash on Hand
Burn Rate (per month)
Last report
M. BaumgartnerMichael Baumgartner$1.74MContrib: $1.69M
$953.8KSpent: $976.0K
$51.4KLast period: $28.7K
PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 15, 2026
C. ConroyCarmela Conroy$396.2KContrib: $386.2K
$74.5KSpent: $334.9K
$17.6KLast period: $8.7K
PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 15, 2026
Source: FEC
Saved Kalshi settlement results
These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.
Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
WA-05 House winner?
No verified final result is available for this race.
Will Democratic win the House race for WA-05?
Settlement pending
Will Republican win the House race for WA-05?
Settlement pending