Prediction Edge
RepublicanIncumbent
David Valadao

David Valadao

Incumbent Republican candidate for U.S. House in California

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

David Valadao is trading at 11% to win the CA-22 House winner? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyModerate Republican

Age49 years old (Apr 14, 1977)

GenderMale

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LocationCalifornia

BackgroundPolitician

EducationHanford High School

Notable personal detailsDavid Goncalves Valadao is a Republican U.S. Representative from California and a Central Valley dairy farmer. He was born and raised in Hanford, California, and attended the College of the Sequoias. He previously served in the California State Assembly (2010–2012) and was first elected to the U.S. House in 2012.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports tax cuts and pro-growth business tax provisions and voted in favor of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act; has worked to extend TCJA business provisions. Shows some caution about deep entitlement cuts (Medicaid) for his district but overall favors lower taxes and business-friendly tax policy.

Healthcare

Supports market-based healthcare reforms and keeping healthcare decisions between patients and doctors rather than the federal government; has voted repeatedly for repeal/rollback of the Affordable Care Act but has also supported targeted federal assistance for hospitals and recent extensions of ACA premium subsidies. Positions emphasize expanding competitive choices and lowering costs while preserving coverage for vulnerable populations through targeted programs.

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Immigration & Border

Supports comprehensive immigration reform including a pathway to citizenship and protections for Dreamers while also backing measures to secure the border and enforcement tools; emphasizes balancing humane treatment of families and the needs of agricultural employers with border security.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate has supported federal personhood-style legislation and has voted against bills that would protect or codify abortion and contraception access; he cosponsored the Life at Conception Act which declares constitutional protection from conception. He has also said he supports some exceptions (rape, incest, and to protect the life of the mother).

Climate & Energy

Supports an all-of-the-above energy approach that expands domestic oil and gas production and reduces regulatory barriers while acknowledging renewable development; has advocated increasing California energy production to lower costs and boost jobs rather than immediately phasing out fossil fuels.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate has voted against major federal gun-reform bills such as expanded background checks and the 2022 Protecting Our Kids Act while supporting measures to fund and equip local police. He cosponsored the Invest to Protect Act to provide grants for police training, body cameras, and recruitment. Overall his record favors law enforcement support and opposes several high-profile new firearm restrictions.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

David Valadao has advanced to the November general election in California’s redrawn 22nd Congressional District, where he is running in a closely watched and competitive House race. He led the June 2 primary and will face Democrat Randy Villegas, after Jasmeet Bains failed to advance. The district is being described as a toss-up and a major test of Valadao’s reelection chances.

valadao.house.gov+45

Latest Polls

CA-22 House winner?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Tulchin Research
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
44%
48%
David Valadao
D. Valadao
Randy Villegas
R. Villegas
Date (Start - End)SpreadValadaoVillegas
Tulchin ResearchJun 15 - 21
Villegas+4.0
44.0%48.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

4
CA-22 primary: first place

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$4.9M
$3.7M
$2.5M
$1.2M
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$3.7M
$48.4K
$3.8M
$160.2K

Cycle 2024

$4.9M
$45.5K
$4.9M
$204.8K

Cycle 2026

$4.9M
$3.4M
$1.6M
$89.3K

Source: FEC