CA-45 House winner?
1dDerek Tran's odds are down 5.0 points and are now at 88% over a 3-day streak.
88%5%
Democrat
Incumbent
Incumbent
Derek Tran
Incumbent Democratic candidate for U.S. House in California
$41.6K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Live Odds
Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.
Derek Tran is trading at 91% to win the CA-45 House winner? on prediction markets.
Candidate Overview
Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.
Current roleU.S. Representative
PartyDemocratic
Political ideologyProgressive Democrat
Age45 years old (Dec 22, 1980)
GenderMale
Show moreShow less
LocationCalifornia
BackgroundU.S. Representative
EducationBentley University — B.S. (2003)
Notable personal detailsDerek Tran is a Democratic member of the U.S. House representing California’s 45th Congressional District, serving since January 3, 2025. He is a U.S. Army veteran and has worked as an attorney in private practice and as a business owner. He earned a B.S. from Bentley University (2003) and a J.D. from Glendale University (2013). In Congress, he has served on the House Armed Services Committee and the House Small Business Committee.
SourcesShowHide
history.house.govfec.govcongress.govtran.house.govwikidata.orgderektranforcongress.comdocquery.fec.govdp.electionresults.sos.ca.govelections.cdn.sos.ca.govocvote.govthecandidate.comusdocket.orgcookpolitical.comclerk.house.goven.wikipedia.orgyoutube.comreddit.comdccc.orgpivotvictoryfund.orgharborinstituteoc.orgpacificties.orglcv.orgaapisforca45.comcampaigns.moveon.orgpivotnetwork.orgnrcc.orgjuliewon.comcapa21.comasiandemsla.orggoogle.comlatimes.comfront.moveon.organimalwellnessaction.orgfacebook.cominstagram.comabc7.comchuygarcia.house.govtheliberaloc.comocregister.comcaliforniaglobe.comballotready.orgnews.ballotpedia.org
Political Positions
LiberalConservative
Economy & Taxes
Derek Tran has supported policies that protect and expand benefits for working families and small businesses, and he voted against the 2025 House Republican budget resolution that would have advanced large tax-cut priorities. His congressional activity includes introducing and praising legislation to help small businesses and proposing targeted tax relief (e.g., baby food tax relief) and supporting expansions to housing-related tax credits.
Healthcare
Supports treating healthcare as a right, expanding coverage and reducing prescription drug costs, and preserving access to women’s health services. Advocates for strengthening public programs and protecting access to care for veterans and vulnerable populations.
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Immigration & Border
Supports comprehensive immigration reform including a pathway to citizenship for productive undocumented immigrants and modernization of asylum procedures while also prioritizing border security improvements such as technology and officer training. Has voted against several hardline enforcement bills and opposed measures seen as overly restrictive. Overall posture balances expanded legal/asylum pathways with targeted enforcement enhancements.
Abortion & Reproductive Rights
Supports codifying the federal right to abortion and defending a person’s right to make their own reproductive health care decisions, including protecting access to abortion, birth control, and related reproductive services. Advocates protecting and expanding reproductive health care access.
Climate & Energy
Supports stronger environmental regulations, protecting California’s clean air and water, investing in clean energy jobs and transportation infrastructure, and holding oil and gas companies accountable while promoting sustainable energy production.
Public Safety & Guns
Supports universal background checks and a ban on assault weapons, while also calling for more police on streets to address rising crime and investments in violence-prevention and rehabilitation programs.
Latest Candidate Updates
Recent changes in prediction-market odds, polling and campaign status.
Latest News
AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026
Derek Tran is in the news mainly for his California’s 45th District House race, where he led the primary and advanced to the general election against Chuong Vo. He has also been active in local district issues, including announcing a $2 million funding boost for a new fire station in Fountain Valley. Earlier coverage focused on backlash over his hosting of CAIR leaders at his Capitol Hill office, which he said was about fighting Islamophobia and defending civil rights.
history.house.gov+41
Articles
NYNew York Post3 months ago
Two more California races called — and Republicans are on the ballot
Positive
SASanta Ana Orange County Register3 months ago
2026 Election Results: In CA-45, D-Derek Tran leads big against 5 challengers
Positive
LALos Angeles Times4 months ago
California Congressional District 45 election voter guide
Neutral
SASanta Ana Orange County Register4 months ago
Residents of CA-45 must also politely decline Chi Charlie Nguyen’s representation in Congress
Neutral
Campaign Fundraising
Latest report: Cycle 2026Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.
Total raisedCash on hand
$6.5M
$4.9M
$3.3M
$1.6M
$0
2024
2026
LatestYear
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate
Cycle 2024
$6.5M
$327.3K
$6.2M
$257.8K
Cycle 2026
$5.0M
$3.3M
$2.1M
$114.0K
Source: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
- Polls
- Endorsements