Prediction Edge
RepublicanIncumbent
Derrick Van Orden

Derrick Van Orden

Incumbent Republican candidate for U.S. House in Wisconsin

Live Odds — WI-03 House winner?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

32%chance to win

$70.2KNOV 7, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyTrump-aligned Republican

Age56 years old (Sep 15, 1969)

GenderMale

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LocationWisconsin

BackgroundU.S. Representative

EducationExcelsior University — B.S.

Notable personal detailsDerrick Francis Van Orden is a Republican member of the U.S. House representing Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, first elected in 2022 and serving since January 3, 2023. He is a retired U.S. Navy SEAL senior chief petty officer who served from 1988 to 2014. He earned a B.S. from Excelsior University and has also worked as an actor and business owner.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports major tax cuts and permanence of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions, favors removing estate/death tax and eliminating taxes on tips and overtime, and voted for legislation described as providing broad tax relief for families, seniors, small businesses, and farmers. Emphasizes reducing tax burdens and delivering tax relief to constituents while supporting related budget legislation.

Healthcare

Derrick Van Orden has supported legislation and budget provisions that reduce federal Medicaid and SNAP funding and has voted for a reconciliation bill described by nonpartisan analysts as cutting Medicaid coverage for millions. He has framed those changes as protecting program integrity and prioritizing funding adjustments while urging state action to align budgets with federal provisions. He has also proposed tying state SNAP cost-sharing to error rates and supported the One, Big, Beautiful Bill that his office says strengthens certain Medicaid provisions while the bill’s opponents say it en

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger border security and enforcement measures, including reinstating the “Remain in Mexico” policy, increased resources for Border Patrol, and tougher controls on asylum processing; emphasizes stopping illegal crossings and reducing fentanyl trafficking. Expresses concern about criminal entries and the use of federal resources for migrants while advocating tighter immigration law enforcement and legal pathways that prioritize security.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Derrick Van Orden identifies as 100% pro-life, says life begins at conception, and has supported strict limits on abortion including criminal penalties for providers and opposition to exceptions. He has called for bans and has a voting record opposing reproductive health protections.

Climate & Energy

Supports expanded domestic energy production and energy independence, emphasizes use of domestic biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel, sustainable aviation fuel) and year-round E-15 availability, and opposes federal subsidies for electric vehicle purchases. Positions favor market-driven production and transitional use of low-carbon fuels while prioritizing domestic fossil-fuel and biofuel production over aggressive federal clean-energy mandates.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports strong Second Amendment protections and opposes efforts to restrict gun ownership; positions align with pro-gun groups and the NRA. Campaign materials emphasize defending the right to keep and bear arms and include affiliation with a “Second Amendment Coalition.”

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 16, 2026

Derrick Van Orden is back in a competitive rematch for Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District, where Democrat Rebecca Cooke has now won the primary and will face him in the general election. The race is being closely watched because the district is considered a toss-up and Van Orden won it in 2024 by less than 3 points. Recent coverage says the campaign is centered on affordability, immigration, and data centers, with both candidates offering sharply different plans.

history.house.gov+49

Latest Polls

WI-03 House winner?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Derrick Van Orden currently averages 45.5%, ranking second in this race, 2.8 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 45.5%Position: secondMargin: -2.8 ptsLatest poll: 46.0% (Jun 20 - 25)Polls included: 4

Average recalculated from polls through Jun 20 - 25.

Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
45.5%
48.3%
Derrick Van Orden
D. Orden
Rebecca Cooke
R. Cooke
Date (Start - End)SpreadOrdenCooke
Polling Average
Cooke+2.8
45.5%48.3%
FM3 ResearchJun 20 - 25
Cooke+4.0
46.0%50.0%
Impact ResearchMay 26 - 31
Cooke+4.0
46.0%50.0%
Impact ResearchFeb 12 - 17
Cooke+1.0
48.0%49.0%
Public Policy PollingOct 14 - 15
Cooke+2.0
42.0%44.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$7.7M
$5.7M
$3.8M
$1.9M
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$6.5M
$177.7K
$6.3M
$263.1K

Cycle 2024

$7.7M
$516.8K
$7.3M
$305.0K

Cycle 2026

$7.5M
$4.7M
$3.4M
$177.1K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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