$139.8K
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Oct 14, 2026, 6:28 PM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds | Poll average | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 48.3% | $8.60M | |
| 26% | 45.5% | $7.53M |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
The biggest recent development is David Crowley winning the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Tom Tiffany remains the Republican nominee, and the coverage says he does not see Crowley’s win as changing the race. One forecast cited in the reporting moved toward a Democratic win. The Crowley nomination and the cited forecast shift may modestly improve Democratic sentiment. But the provided news does not show a clear change for this House market, so the effect is limited and indirect.
The Plain Dealer and cleveland.com will regularly track prediction-market odds for Ohio governor and U.S. Senate in the last three weeks of the 2026 campaign.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson talked with voters in Sparta alongside Congressman Derrick Van Orden.
Rep. Tony Wied of De Pere faces a challenge from Rick Crosson of Green Bay to represent the 8th district in Congress.
Conservative leaders are sounding the alarm that more needs to be done in the final weeks before the midterm elections to educate and mobilize white evangelicals, a critical voting bloc in the president’s coalition. Republicans fear if they stay home, that could hand victories to Democrats in key races across the country with control of Congress at stake.
In Bellevue, Tom Tiffany delivered his first message as the Republican nominee for governor, focusing on Crowley and the Democratic primary outcome.
President Donald Trump says he slipped away from Air Force One after a trip last month in Turkey because the Secret Service and military wanted him on a “different plane” due to a threat he insisted didn’t scare him.
Crowley defeated Francesca Hong, whom party leaders feared would be a weak general election candidate.
Meet the District 6 candidates in the Democratic primary seeking to challenge incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman.
U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy’s son-in-law Michael Alfonso faces GOP scrutiny over experience in his Wisconsin congressional bid.
Polling results and averages based on polls published between Oct 14, 2025 and Jun 25, 2026.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.
R. CookeRebecca CookeD. OrdenDerrick Van OrdenSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
