Grayhouse
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
51%
Saved Kalshi settlement results
These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.
Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
KY-04 House winner?
The selected contract has a verified final result.
Final: Yes
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 2:28 AM UTC
Republican
Ed Gallrein
Republican candidate for U.S. House in Kentucky
$69.9K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Saved odds — KY-04 House winner?
Prediction-market probability saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
96.3%chance to win
$69.9KNOV 7, 2026Candidate Overview
Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.
Current roleFarmer
PartyRepublican
Political ideologyConservative Republican
GenderMale
LocationKentucky
Show moreShow less
BackgroundFarmer
Notable personal detailsEd Gallrein is a Republican candidate who ran for U.S. House in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District. He is a fifth-generation Kentucky farmer and a retired U.S. Navy SEAL officer who served for about three decades, reaching the rank of Captain and serving on SEAL Team Six. He has also been associated with Circle G Farm & Stables in Kentucky.
SourcesShowHide
edgallrein.comen.wikipedia.orguschamber.comlinkedin.comweb.sos.ky.govelect.ky.govbourboncountyclerk.ky.govthecandidate.comboonecountyclerk.ky.govthemidtermproject.orgleadstories.comelections.jeffersoncountyclerk.orgvrsws.sos.ky.govfec.govcampbellcountyclerk.ky.govedwardgallrein.comec.linkedin.comny1.comlpm.orgivoterguide.comjustfacts.votesmart.orgyahoo.comvotegallrein.comapnews.compolitico.comwashingtonpost.comthe-national-pulse-1.ghost.iospectrumnews1.comclick2houston.comcongress.govlex18.comkypolicy.orgjustice.govyoutube.comjewishinsider.comkentuckylantern.comnpr.orgwlwt.compbs.orgbbc.comnbcnews.comwhas11.comdecisiondeskhq.substack.comabcnews.comnytimes.comkotaradio.comweartv.comjpost.commediaite.comfacebook.comdocquery.fec.govballotready.orggovinfo.govdemocrats.senate.govhouse.gov
Political Positions
LiberalConservative
Economy & Taxes
Supports cutting taxes and reducing government spending to lower inflation and promote job growth. Plans to "unleash our economy" by cutting taxes and bringing jobs back to Kentucky.
Healthcare
Supports preserving Medicare and Medicaid but opposes expanding taxpayer-funded health programs; favors individual choice and limited government role in health decisions. Campaign materials emphasize cutting spending and reducing government reach consistent with market-oriented policies on healthcare.
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Immigration & Border
Supports stronger border enforcement and funding for border agencies, including finishing construction of a border wall and fully funding Border Patrol and ICE. Frames immigration as a crisis tied to crime and drugs and emphasizes securing the southern border. No evidence found of support for expanded legal pathways or broad regularization.
Abortion & Reproductive Rights
The candidate identifies as pro-life and states a commitment to "protect the unborn." Questionnaire/position responses indicate support for abortion only when the pregnancy threatens the immediate life of the mother.
Climate & Energy
Supports an all‑of‑the‑above energy approach that emphasizes coal and natural gas alongside renewable resources and views stricter environmental regulations as harmful to jobs and U.S. energy independence. Campaign materials emphasize economic growth and an "America First" agenda rather than aggressive climate regulation.
Public Safety & Guns
The candidate expresses strong support for the Second Amendment and for law enforcement, and is a lifetime member and certified instructor with the NRA. He has received a high candidate rating from the NRA.
Latest News
AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 13, 2026
Ed Gallrein’s biggest recent development is winning the Republican primary for Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, defeating incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie. The win was backed by Donald Trump and came after heavy outside spending against Massie. Gallrein is now set to appear on the November ballot, while Massie has conceded and said he will not seek a recount.
edgallrein.com+54
Articles
FNFox News3 months ago
10 US House incumbent lawmakers have lost 2026 primaries so far
Positive
NNewsweek3 months ago
Massie Calls Iran War Trump’s ‘Biggest and Most Costly Blunder’
Positive
FNFox News4 months ago
Thomas Massie suggests Obamacare could now be referred to as 'Trumpcare'
Positive
TDThe Daily Beast5 months ago
Trump Rebel Thomas Massie Signals He’s Not Done Fighting
Positive
Latest Polls
Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign Fundraising
Latest report: Cycle 2026Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.
Total raisedCash on hand
$3.6M
$2.7M
$1.8M
$891.8K
$0
2026
LatestYear
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate
Cycle 2026
$3.6M
$179.3K
$3.4M
$188.2K
Source: FEC
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- Endorsements