$32.3K
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Deposit $20, get $50 on Polymarket
Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 19, 2026, 12:53 AM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|
| 93% | $3.57M | |
| 4% | $94.5K |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
Ed Gallrein has secured the Republican nomination in Kentucky’s 4th District and will face Democrat Melissa Strange in the general election. Thomas Massie has отказed a recount and cannot stay on the ballot under Kentucky’s sore loser law. That leaves Republicans with a cleaner path into November. Gallrein’s primary win makes the Republican side the clear favorite in the general-election party market. The main uncertainty now is whether any unusual write-in effort could matter, but the summaries suggest that is unlikely.
Some online have questioned whether U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie can still get write-in votes in November, but Kentucky's election laws make it unlikely.
The contest for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District will go down as the most expensive primary race in US history, with more than $32 million spent on political ads, according to the firm AdImpact.
Former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein has won the Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District over Rep. Thomas Massie.
The race was the most expensive U.S. House primary in history.
The Kentucky primary pits Massie, one of the most conservative members of Congress, against Trump and many wealthy donors.
His latest move suggests he’ll continue to battle the president.
Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie said Friday that he would not be requesting a recount in the recent Republican primary for the state’s 4th congressional district.
Trump touted a 37-0 record in Tuesday's GOP primaries, including Ed Gallrein's ouster of Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky's closely watched congressional race.
“We stirred up something. There is a yearning in this country for someone who will vote for principles over party,” Massie said.
The president’s favored candidates scored decisive victories while his opponents were soundly rejected by Republican primary voters. But whether that amounts to wins in November remains to be seen.
Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.
E. GallreinEd Gallrein
M. StrangeMelissa StrangeSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
