$813.35
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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$813
24h volume
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source: Kalshi
A fresh poll shows Trump-backed Ed Gallrein leading Thomas Massie in the May 19 KY-04 GOP primary, which is the most tradeable new development in this otherwise safe Republican seat and could affect expectations for the nominee fight.
Ed Gallrein has picked up momentum in the Kentucky 4th District Republican primary, with Trump’s endorsement and recent polling showing a narrow lead. The race remains close, but outside spending and national attention have made it a major test of Trump’s influence. The latest coverage appears to improve Gallrein’s standing and adds pressure on Massie. But the race is still described as close, so uncertainty remains high.
The Kentucky primary pits Massie, one of the most conservative members of Congress, against Trump and many wealthy donors.
President Donald Trump on Monday asked Kentucky Republican voters to deny obstructionist Rep. Thomas Massie's bid for reelection in Tuesday's primary.
Thomas Massie, the Kentucky congressman in Trump’s crosshairs, aped the president days before big election.
The Kentucky Republican's chances of winning his primary against a Trump-backed challenger have slipped sharply on prediction markets.
Kyle Rittenhouse has backed anti-Trump Republican Congressman Thomas Massie in the Kentucky primary.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will join Trump-backed Republican Ed Gallrein in Northern Kentucky before the May 19 primary election.
President Donald Trump is trying to oust one of his own party’s most independent voices: Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie.
The president openly solicited contenders to primary Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) after she campaigned for Trump-foe Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.).
COVINGTON, Ky. (AP) — Rep. Thomas Massie was stuck in Washington for a vote on Capitol Hill, so one of his supporters made the pitch for his campaign in a banquet hall packed with Republicans in northern Kentucky.
President Donald Trump and allies target Sen. Bill Cassidy and Rep. Thomas Massie in upcoming GOP primaries after Trump-backed challengers won five Indiana state Senate races.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
