Prediction Edge
Democrat
Haley Stevens

Haley Stevens

Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Michigan

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Haley Stevens is trading at 0% to win the Michigan Democratic Senate nominee? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyModerate Democrat

Age43 years old (Jun 24, 1983)

GenderFemale

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LocationMichigan

BackgroundPolitician

EducationAmerican University (B.A., 2005)

Notable personal detailsHaley Maria Stevens is a Democratic politician serving as the U.S. representative for Michigan’s 11th congressional district since 2019. Before Congress, she worked in economic and manufacturing policy, including as chief of staff for the Obama administration’s auto rescue task force. She earned a B.A. (2005) and an M.A. (2007) from American University. She is a candidate for U.S. Senate in Michigan in the 2026 election cycle.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports using federal policy to protect working families from higher costs, expand funding for social programs, and push back against policies she says primarily benefit the wealthy; opposes tariffs she views as harmful to Michigan families while supporting targeted trade measures to improve U.S. competitiveness. She has criticized Republican budgets and proposals that she says give tax breaks to the richest Americans and increase the national debt.

Healthcare

Supports strengthening and expanding the Affordable Care Act rather than Medicare for All, advocates creating a public option and allowing a Medicare buy-in for people aged 55–65, and prioritizes lowering prescription drug costs and expanding access to care. Has sponsored/advanced legislation on health issues (for example, thyroid disease research and care).

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Immigration & Border

Supports expanded legal pathways and protections for immigrants, including pathways to citizenship and protections for Dreamers; has sponsored and cosponsored legislation to reform visa limits for high-skilled immigrants and to rein in ICE funding and authority. Opposes large increases in enforcement funding and has criticized aggressive ICE actions under the Trump administration.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Haley Stevens supports abortion access and has said she "unequivocally" supports a woman’s right to choose. She has backed federal protections to codify Roe-era abortion rights, opposed measures to restrict funding for reproductive health providers, and has received repeated endorsements and high ratings from Planned Parenthood and pro-choice organizations.

Climate & Energy

Supports investment in clean energy, clean manufacturing, recycling initiatives, and measures to grow domestic critical-minerals and clean-technology supply chains while opposing Green New Deal–style proposals that she says would harm Michigan auto workers. Has backed climate and clean-energy provisions in legislation (including provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act) and voted to uphold California’s efforts to accelerate electric vehicle adoption.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports strong gun safety measures including universal/expanded background checks, red flag (extreme risk) laws, cracking down on ghost guns, and has supported assault-weapons restrictions and federal gun-violence-prevention legislation. Has been endorsed by major gun-safety organizations for this record and has publicly spoken in favor of state and federal gun-safety actions.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 10, 2026

Haley Stevens lost Michigan’s Democratic U.S. Senate primary to Abdul El-Sayed in a very close race, with reports putting the margin at about 1 percentage point. The result ends her bid for the seat being vacated by Sen. Gary Peters and sets up El-Sayed to face Republican Mike Rogers in the general election. The race drew attention for deep Democratic divisions, especially over ideology and Israel policy, and party leaders are now trying to unify after the upset.

bioguideretro.congress.gov+56

Latest Polls

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Haley Stevens currently averages 30.6%, ranking second in this race, 6.2 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 30.6%Position: secondMargin: -6.2 ptsLatest poll: 39.0% (Jul 28 - 30)Polls included: 37

Average recalculated from polls through Jul 28 - 30.

Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
30.6%
36.8%
13%
Haley Stevens
H. Stevens
Abdul El-Sayed
A. El-Sayed
Dana Nessel
D. Nessel
Date (Start - End)SpreadStevensEl-SayedNessel
Polling Average
El-Sayed+6.2
30.6%36.8%13.0%
SoCal StrategiesJul 28 - 30
El-Sayed+17.0
39.0%56.0%
Zenith ResearchJul 26 - 30
El-Sayed+19.0
34.0%53.0%
Zenith ResearchJul 26 - 30
El-Sayed+18.0
41.0%59.0%
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsJul 28 - 29
El-Sayed+14.0
38.0%52.0%
The Public Sentiment InstituteJul 25 - 29
El-Sayed+13.7
36.0%49.7%
The Public Sentiment InstituteJul 25 - 29
El-Sayed+8.1
39.5%47.6%
Emerson CollegeJul 26 - 27
El-Sayed+16.3
40.8%57.1%
Tavern ResearchJul 26 - 27
El-Sayed+10.0
36.0%46.0%
Tavern ResearchJul 26 - 27
El-Sayed+11.0
37.0%48.0%
Tulchin ResearchJul 13 - 15
El-Sayed+16.0
40.0%56.0%
Data for ProgressJul 10 - 14
El-Sayed+13.0
41.0%54.0%
Glengariff GroupJul 8 - 11
Stevens+7.0
48.0%41.0%
Tavern ResearchJul 6 - 7
Stevens+1.0
42.0%41.0%
Tavern ResearchJul 6 - 7
El-Sayed+3.0
38.0%41.0%
Quantus InsightsJun 29 - 30
El-Sayed+5.4
35.6%41.0%
Tulchin ResearchJun 24 - 28
El-Sayed+19.0
27.0%46.0%
Wedgewood PollsJun 25 - 28
El-Sayed+7.0
39.0%46.0%
Peak InsightsJun 20 - 24
El-Sayed+11.0
28.0%39.0%
Susquehanna Polling & ResearchJun 9 - 14
El-Sayed+2.0
20.0%22.0%
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsJun 11 - 13
El-Sayed+9.0
33.0%42.0%
Lake Research PartnersMay 26 - 28
El-Sayed+3.0
31.0%34.0%
Tulchin ResearchMay 19 - 25
El-Sayed+18.0
23.0%41.0%
TIPP InsightsMay 20 - 23
Stevens+4.0
35.0%31.0%
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsMay 1 - 7
El-Sayed+9.0
18.0%27.0%
Glengariff GroupApr 17 - 19
Stevens+2.0
24.9%22.9%
Emerson CollegeApr 11 - 13
El-Sayed+10.6
13.4%24.0%
Data for ProgressApr 2 - 8
Stevens+1.0
23.0%22.0%
Global Strategy GroupMar 19 - 22
El-Sayed+2.0
23.0%25.0%
Upswing ResearchFeb 26 - Mar 2
Stevens+4.0
27.0%23.0%
Impact ResearchFeb 10 - 16
Stevens+2.0
28.0%26.0%
Emerson CollegeJan 24 - 25
Stevens+0.6
16.5%15.9%
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsNov 18 - 21
Stevens+11.0
27.0%16.0%
Rosetta Stone CommunicationsOct 23 - 25
Stevens+6.0
26.0%20.0%
NRSCJul 4 - 7
Stevens+2.0
24.0%22.0%
Global Strategy GroupMay 28 - Jun 2
Stevens+9.0
24.0%15.0%
Glengariff GroupMay 5 - 8
Stevens+12.1
34.3%22.2%
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsMar 13 - 13
Nessel+11.0
2.0%13.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$11.9M
$8.9M
$5.9M
$3.0M
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$11.9M
$2.8M
$9.1M
$478.5K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements