State Lean
Competitive
Core swing state
ClosedGeneral Election
2026 Michigan Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates
Election Day: Recorded market close:
Michigan Senate winner? (Person)
$4.6M
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Race Snapshot
Compare the candidates' saved odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Saved odds | Poll average | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 40.5% | $14.51M | |
| 22% | — | $10.90M | |
| 1% | — | $11.39M | |
| 1% | 45.1% | $11.88M |
OddsSaved odds
Prices saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
Odds History
Total volume
$4.6M
24h volume
$330.4K
source: Kalshi
Politics IQ
Structural race context from reviewed jurisdiction data
Michigan · US Senate
CompetitiveOpen seatCore swing state
Primary System
Party primary or state-specific
No primary runoff
Election Rules
Primary Aug 4, 2026
Runoff: No
General: Nov 3, 2026
Early voting
Early voting is generally available by the second Saturday before Election Day through the Sunday before Election Day.
Sources reviewed May 2, 2026 · U.S. Senate, Class II senators · U.S. Senate, current senator list · 270toWin/Cook · NCSL
Election Dates and Deadlines
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Latest Race Updates
Key developments affecting the candidates, polls and prediction market odds.
Michigan Senate winner? (Person)
8hRogers’ win probability has moved up to 25% from 22% in the last hour while fresh reporting on Haley Stevens’ endorsement of him keeps the Michigan Senate race under intense late-cycle scrutiny.
22%3%
Latest Election News
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
AINews Summary
Abdul El-Sayed is under heavier attack in Michigan, with criticism over Hasan Piker ties, 9/11-related comments, and a 2007 protest report. A Trump-linked PAC is also spending against him in the race. El-Sayed’s campaign is pushing back and says the attacks misrepresent his views. The attacks and outside spending could add pressure on El-Sayed and help Rogers at the margin. The effect is still uncertain because the reporting does not show a change in the race itself.
Articles
N5NBC 5 Chicago2 days ago
Illinois Senate election 2026: What to know about Juliana Stratton vs. Don Tracy
In one of the most closely watched races of the 2026 midterm elections in Illinois, Democratic Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and former chair of the Illinois...
MLM Live Michigan 1 day ago
Senate midterms 2026: Latest polls show GOP trouble in battleground states
In order to flip the Senate, Democrats need to keep control of their 47 seats and gain four more.
SSlate2 days ago
This Wasn’t Supposed to Be Senate Democrats’ Year. Here’s What Changed.
The party is in the midst of a remarkable comeback—mostly thanks to one man.
N5NBC 5 Chicago1 day ago
Election 2026: Races to watch in the House, Senate
The 2026 election is nearly here, and battles for control of the U.S. Senate and House are continuing to heat up
BNBaltimore News1 day ago
Bruce Springsteen endorses El-Sayed for US Senate
Musician Bruce Springsteen endorsed Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed on Monday.
FNFox News1 day ago
DR ABDUL EL-SAYED: Michigan here's why I want your vote for Senate
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed makes his case for Michigan's Senate race, criticizing GOP opponent Mike Rogers' ties to Trump's tariffs and their impact on gas prices and healthcare costs.
TIThe Intercept1 day ago
Abdul El-Sayed Tests the Limits of Islamophobia in Michigan
As the Michigan Senate race finishes with a focus on a feud with Rep. Haley Stevens, Abdul El-Sayed has endured a barrage of anti-Muslim attacks.
UNU.S. News & World Report2 days ago
The Latest: Democrat Who Lost Michigan Senate Primary Backs Republican in General Election Contest
Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s former opponent in the U.S. Senate primary, Haley Stevens, stunned party officials on Sunday by endorsing Republican Mike Rogers in the general election contest after Democratic tensions boiled over. The move came after Stevens was uninvited to a joint event the same day with El-Sayed as he campaigned for the Michigan seat. The outcome could help determine the balance of power on Capitol Hill.
BNBreitbart News Network2 days ago
El-Sayed 'Is the Embodiment of the American Dream'
Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union," Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) said Michigan's Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate, Abdul El-Sayed, "is the | Clips
Latest Polls
Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
45.1%
40.5%
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign Fundraising
Total RaisedCash on Hand
Jul 15, 2026$20M
$15M
$10M
$5M
$0
A. El-Sayed
H. Stevens
M. McMorrow
M. Rogers
Candidate
Total Raised
Cash on Hand
Burn Rate (per month)
Last report
A. El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed$14.51MContrib: $14.48M
$2.55MSpent: $11.96M
$629.6KLast period: $2.30M
PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 15, 2026
H. StevensHaley Stevens$11.88MContrib: $9.92M
$2.79MSpent: $9.09M
$478.5KLast period: $888.4K
PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 15, 2026
M. McMorrowMallory McMorrow$11.39MContrib: $11.21M
$1.87MSpent: $9.52M
$501.0KLast period: $66.8K
PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 15, 2026
M. RogersMike Rogers$10.90MContrib: $7.68M
$4.47MSpent: $6.68M
$351.6KLast period: $317.1K
PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 15, 2026
Source: FEC
Related Races
Saved Kalshi settlement results
These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.
Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
Michigan Senate winner? (Person)
All preserved contracts have verified final results.
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
Final: Yes
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 8:05 AM UTC
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
Final: No
Settled Oct 15, 2026, 5:52 AM UTC
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
Final: No
Settled Oct 15, 2026, 5:52 AM UTC
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
Final: No
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 8:05 AM UTC