Prediction Edge
Democrat
Hallie Shoffner

Hallie Shoffner

Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Arkansas

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Hallie Shoffner is trading at 7% to win the Arkansas Senate winner? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleFarmer

PartyDemocratic

GenderFemale

LocationArkansas

BackgroundFarmer

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EducationVanderbilt University (full-ride scholarship)

Notable personal detailsHallie Shoffner is an Arkansas farmer and entrepreneur who ran as the Democratic challenger for U.S. Senate in Arkansas in the 2026 election cycle. She grew up in Shoffner, a farming community in the Arkansas Delta, and operated her family farm for several years. She attended Vanderbilt University on a full-ride scholarship and later studied at the Clinton School of Public Service.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports cutting taxes for working and blue-collar families while opposing tax cuts for wealthy landowners; emphasizes lowering costs for regular people, protecting Social Security and Medicaid, and reducing the deficit. Advocates targeted tax relief for working families alongside investments in healthcare, workforce support, and an Arkansas-first economic plan.

Healthcare

Supports strengthening and protecting the Affordable Care Act, Medicare, and Medicaid; aims to make healthcare affordable and accessible for all Arkansans, lower prescription drug prices, and hold insurance companies accountable.

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Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Does not assign herself a pro‑choice or pro‑life label and says states can decide their own abortion laws; she also warns that restrictive laws can prevent access to necessary, life‑saving medical care.

Climate & Energy

Supports recognizing and responding to climate change impacts on agriculture, promoting conservation and sustainable farming practices, and federal incentives (e.g., in the Farm Bill) to help farmers adopt soil health and water-saving practices. Emphasizes building resilience in rural food systems and increased research to help crops withstand extreme weather while pursuing pragmatic, non‑apocalyptic solutions.

Public Safety & Guns

The campaign emphasizes keeping Arkansas communities safe by supporting local law enforcement and first responders with training, staffing, and mental-health resources, and by investing in community-based crime prevention. The campaign materials do not state specific positions on firearm policy (for example, background checks, assault weapons bans, red flag laws, or concealed-carry rules).

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 29, 2026

Hallie Shoffner is the Democratic nominee for Arkansas’s U.S. Senate race and will face Republican Sen. Tom Cotton in November. She recently said she would vote to defund ICE as it exists now, drawing criticism from Republicans who called the stance too extreme. Shoffner also said someone came to her Little Rock home with a weapon over the weekend and that the incident is under police investigation. Earlier, she has been campaigning on labor rights, affordability, and support for the PRO Act.

fec.gov+46

Latest Polls

Arkansas Senate winner?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Hallie Shoffner currently averages 39.5%, ranking second in this race, 12.5 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 39.5%Position: secondMargin: -12.5 ptsLatest poll: 43.0% (Jul 17 - 25)Polls included: 2

Average recalculated from polls through Jul 17 - 25.

Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
39.5%
52%
Hallie Shoffner
H. Shoffner
Tom Cotton
T. Cotton
Date (Start - End)SpreadShoffnerCotton
Polling Average
Cotton+12.5
39.5%52.0%
2040 Strategy GroupJul 17 - 25
Cotton+3.0
43.0%46.0%
GrayhouseFeb 7 - 9
Cotton+22.0
36.0%58.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$2.3M
$1.7M
$1.1M
$567.3K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$2.3M
$863.6K
$1.4M
$78.1K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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