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Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.

Texas Senate winner?

The selected contract has a verified final result.

  • James Talarico

    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?

    Selected market

    Final: Yes

    Settled Nov 4, 2026, 4:35 AM UTC

Democrat
James Talarico

James Talarico

Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Texas

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Saved odds — Texas Senate winner?

Prediction-market probability saved with this edition; no automatic updates.

70%chance to win

$86.7MNOV 7, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleState Representative

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyProgressive Democrat

Age37 years old (May 17, 1989)

GenderMale

Show more

LocationTexas

BackgroundPolitician

EducationB.A., Government, The University of Texas at Austin (2011)

Notable personal detailsJames Dell Talarico is an American politician, former public school teacher, and educator serving in the Texas House of Representatives (District 50) after first being elected in 2018. He previously taught middle-school English in San Antonio and later worked in education-focused nonprofit leadership. He earned degrees from the University of Texas at Austin and Harvard University and has pursued theological training at Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary.

SourcesShow
house.texas.govlrl.texas.goven.wikipedia.orgwikidata.orgjamestalarico.comcommons.wikimedia.orgimdb.comfr.wikipedia.orgcapitol.texas.govtxdirectory.comfamousbirthdays.comapp7.vocusgr.comgovinfo.govnewtools.cira.state.tx.ustxroundtable.comes.wikipedia.orgtexaspolitics.comlatimes.comdallasnews.commysanantonio.comnews.yahoo.comtexastribune.orgballotready.orgcommunityimpact.comgivegreen.comopen.pluralpolicy.comlegiscan.comfortune.comjustfacts.votesmart.orgteachthevote.orgnypost.comchristianpost.comapnews.comtexasaflcio.orgtexasmonthly.comelpasotimes.comnytimes.comnotus.orgthetexan.newsnpr.orgfox7austin.comusatoday.comstatesman.comwashingtonpost.comnewsweek.comtheaustinindependent.orgfoxnews.comsacurrent.comfacebook.comyoutube.comfec.govdocquery.fec.govdeveloper.ballotpedia.orghouse.govhistory.house.govcongress.govcdn.ballotpedia.orgvotesmart.orgstatic.votesmart.org

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports significantly higher taxes on the wealthiest Americans and large corporations, closing loopholes (including carried interest and “buy, borrow, die”), raising capital gains and corporate tax rates, and using increased revenue to cut taxes for working families and expand supports (wages, Social Security protections, prescription drug and cost-of-living relief).

Healthcare

Supports expanding government-backed coverage by making Medicare buy-in or a public option available and expanding Medicare access; emphasizes lowering prescription drug costs (including capping insulin copays and importing drugs) and treating health care as a human right. Has a legislative record on prescription-cost reforms and protections for Medicaid.

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Immigration & Border

Supports comprehensive immigration reform that expands legal pathways and a pathway to citizenship for longtime residents while also strengthening border security against cartels and criminal actors. Proposes asylum-system improvements (more immigration judges, root out fraud, speed legitimate protections), modernizing ports of entry, guest-worker and employer-sponsorship programs with labor protections, and targeted enforcement against gangs and traffickers rather than broad deportation of immigrants.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports restoring and protecting reproductive freedom at the federal level, including federal legislation to codify Roe v. Wade and protections for access to contraception and IVF; opposes Texas’s near-total abortion ban and frames abortion access as a matter of bodily autonomy and public health.

Climate & Energy

Supports federal incentives and investments to expand renewable energy and grid resilience, endorses emissions-reduction planning and climate preparedness, and advocates for diversified energy innovation while maintaining transitional fossil fuel roles.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports expanded background checks for private firearm transfers and has sponsored/co-sponsored legislation to require national instant background checks; supports reforms to policing and measures to improve public safety in schools.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 19, 2026

James Talarico is in the news for his Texas Senate campaign against Ken Paxton, with a new ad attacking Paxton over a 2013 courthouse pen incident and earlier campaign messaging focused on affordability. Recent polls show Talarico running narrowly ahead of Paxton, including one that put him up 47% to 43%. He has also faced campaign scrutiny over past comments on Bible curriculum, transgender issues, and immigration detention, while defending his positions as part of a broader push against culture-war politics.

house.texas.gov+58
Articles
TDThe Dallas Morning News3 months ago

Ken Paxton and a $1,000 Montblanc pen make James Talarico’s latest ad

Positive
FNFox News3 months ago

James Talarico slammed by Ted Cruz over criticizing bible-related education

Negative
NNJ.com3 months ago

Shock poll reveals Democrat has edge over Trump Republican in deep-red state

Positive
F4FOX 4 News3 months ago

Black Texas voters favor Talarico, but frustration with Democrats runs high

Positive

Latest Polls

Texas Senate winner?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

James Talarico currently averages 47.7%, ranking first in this race, 2.6 points ahead of the nearest opponent.

Polling average: 47.7%Position: firstMargin: +2.6 ptsLatest poll: 49.0% (Oct 31 - Nov 2)Polls included: 83

Average recalculated from polls through Oct 31 - Nov 2.

Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
47.7%
45.1%
James Talarico
J. Talarico
Ken Paxton
K. Paxton
Date (Start - End)SpreadTalaricoPaxton
Polling Average
Talarico+2.6
47.7%45.1%
Research Co.Oct 31 - Nov 2
Talarico+3.0
49.0%46.0%
AtlasIntelOct 28 - Nov 1
Talarico+5.9
51.3%45.4%
Emerson CollegeOct 31 - Nov 1
Talarico+1.4
49.8%48.4%
The New York Times/Siena UniversityOct 27 - Nov 1
Talarico+7.0
50.0%43.0%
Trafalgar GroupOct 31 - Nov 1
Paxton+0.6
47.5%48.1%
Kreate StrategiesOct 27 - 30
Talarico+3.0
48.0%45.0%
YouGovOct 26 - 29
Talarico+4.0
51.0%47.0%
ActiVoteOct 22 - 28
Talarico+4.2
52.1%47.9%
Quantus InsightsOct 26 - 28
Paxton+1.0
48.4%49.4%
A2 InsightsOct 23 - 27
Talarico+3.0
50.2%47.2%
CNN/SSRSOct 20 - 27
Talarico+6.0
49.0%43.0%
Data for ProgressOct 23 - 26
Talarico+4.0
49.0%45.0%
YouGov BlueOct 21 - 26
Talarico+8.0
51.0%43.0%
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterOct 21 - 25
Talarico+2.0
49.0%47.0%
ActiVoteOct 17 - 21
Talarico+2.0
51.0%49.0%
YouGovOct 13 - 21
Talarico+5.0
50.0%45.0%
VoteHub/VerasightOct 1 - 20
Talarico+2.4
47.6%45.2%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchOct 15 - 19
Talarico+0.0
49.0%49.0%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchOct 15 - 19
Talarico+6.0
52.0%46.0%
Emerson CollegeOct 17 - 19
Talarico+1.6
49.4%47.8%
PollfinityOct 15 - 18
Talarico+5.0
48.0%43.0%
Slingshot StrategiesOct 15 - 18
Talarico+4.0
51.0%47.0%
YouGovOct 8 - 16
Talarico+2.0
51.0%49.0%
Cor StrategiesOct 10 - 15
Talarico+4.0
44.0%40.0%
ActiVoteSep 30 - Oct 14
Talarico+3.8
51.9%48.1%
InsiderAdvantageOct 13 - 14
Paxton+0.4
48.1%48.5%
University of Houston Hobby School of Public AffairsOct 10 - 14
Talarico+2.0
48.0%46.0%
New River Strategies/GS Strategy GroupOct 9 - 13
Talarico+5.0
49.0%44.0%
Marist UniversityOct 8 - 11
Talarico+2.0
47.0%45.0%
Marist UniversityOct 8 - 11
Talarico+4.0
48.0%44.0%
Quantus InsightsOct 9 - 11
Paxton+0.5
46.7%47.2%
ReconMR/Siena UniversityOct 5 - 8
Talarico+4.0
48.0%44.0%
Trafalgar GroupOct 6 - 8
Talarico+3.5
47.1%43.6%
Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGovSep 25 - Oct 5
Talarico+3.0
50.0%47.0%
YouGovSep 28 - Oct 5
Talarico+6.0
50.0%44.0%
The New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 21 - 30
Talarico+6.0
51.0%45.0%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchSep 24 - 28
Talarico+2.0
51.0%49.0%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchSep 24 - 28
Talarico+7.0
53.0%46.0%
Guidant Polling and StrategySep 20 - 28
Talarico+2.4
46.6%44.2%
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGovSep 18 - 28
Paxton+0.0
45.0%45.0%
Pulse Decision ScienceSep 24 - 27
Paxton+3.0
45.0%48.0%
Big Data PollSep 24 - 26
Talarico+1.9
46.8%44.9%
Big Data PollSep 24 - 26
Talarico+2.6
46.4%43.8%
Stratus IntelligenceSep 22 - 24
Paxton+0.0
48.0%48.0%
Texas Public Opinion ResearchSep 19 - 22
Talarico+5.0
49.0%44.0%
Marist UniversitySep 17 - 20
Talarico+6.0
50.0%44.0%
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterSep 15 - 19
Talarico+1.0
47.0%46.0%
Trafalgar GroupSep 15 - 17
Talarico+1.2
46.4%45.2%
Emerson CollegeSep 12 - 14
Talarico+1.0
47.3%46.3%
SoCal StrategiesSep 12 - 13
Talarico+5.0
50.0%45.0%
ReconMR/Siena UniversitySep 8 - 11
Talarico+6.0
49.0%43.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategySep 8 - 10
Talarico+3.0
46.0%43.0%
InsiderAdvantageSep 8 - 9
Talarico+1.5
47.1%45.6%
YouGovAug 27 - Sep 4
Talarico+5.0
48.0%43.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchAug 30 - Sep 1
Talarico+4.0
48.0%44.0%
Overton InsightsAug 24 - 26
Paxton+0.0
50.0%50.0%
Slingshot StrategiesAug 21 - 24
Talarico+6.0
48.0%42.0%
Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGovAug 5 - 13
Talarico+3.0
42.0%39.0%
Emerson CollegeAug 9 - 10
Paxton+1.0
46.2%47.2%
Wedgewood PollsJul 30 - 31
Talarico+2.0
48.0%46.0%
YouGov BlueJul 15 - 31
Talarico+3.0
48.0%45.0%
ReconMR/Siena UniversityJul 27 - 30
Talarico+4.0
47.0%43.0%
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterJul 27 - 30
Talarico+2.0
47.0%45.0%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchJul 23 - 27
Talarico+3.0
51.0%48.0%
Slingshot StrategiesJul 15 - 17
Talarico+5.0
45.0%40.0%
A2 InsightsJun 23 - 28
Talarico+2.3
48.4%46.1%
The New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 19 - 27
Talarico+0.0
47.0%47.0%
SoCal StrategiesJun 21 - 21
Paxton+1.5
47.0%48.5%
Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGovJun 5 - 12
Paxton+1.0
42.0%43.0%
Quantus InsightsJun 3 - 4
Paxton+2.0
43.0%45.0%
ReconMR/Siena UniversityJun 1 - 4
Talarico+1.0
47.0%46.0%
Slingshot StrategiesMay 27 - 28
Talarico+3.0
47.0%44.0%
Public Policy PollingMay 22 - 23
Talarico+7.0
45.0%38.0%
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center/YouGovApr 22 - May 6
Paxton+0.0
45.0%45.0%
Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGovApr 10 - 20
Talarico+8.0
42.0%34.0%
Texas Public Opinion ResearchApr 17 - 20
Talarico+5.0
46.0%41.0%
Impact ResearchMar 12 - 17
Talarico+1.0
44.0%43.0%
Public Policy PollingMar 4 - 5
Talarico+2.0
47.0%45.0%
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/YouGovJan 20 - 31
Paxton+2.0
44.0%46.0%
Emerson CollegeJan 10 - 12
Paxton+0.0
45.6%45.6%
Ragnar Research PartnersNov 12 - 17
Talarico+0.0
44.0%44.0%
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs/YouGovSep 19 - Oct 1
Paxton+3.0
46.0%49.0%
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion ResearchSep 17 - 24
Paxton+1.0
37.0%38.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$68.6M
$51.4M
$34.3M
$17.1M
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$68.6M
$21.5M
$47.0M
$2.6M

Source: FEC

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