Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
46%
46%
43.6%
42.3%
40.6%
J. Crockett
W. Hunt
J. Talarico
K. Jr.
J. Cornyn
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$2.2M
NOV 8, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
Total volume
$2.2M
24h volume
$15.0K
source: Kalshi
New polling puts Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead of both potential Republican general-election opponents, Cornyn and Paxton. The GOP nominee will be decided in a May 26 Cornyn–Paxton runoff, while Talarico has already secured the Democratic nomination and is reporting strong fundraising. The fresh polling and Talarico’s fundraising could nudge odds toward a Democratic win, especially while the GOP nominee remains unsettled. The Cornyn–Paxton runoff keeps uncertainty elevated until the Republican field is finalized.
The Republicans who control Florida’s legislature on Tuesday will take up a new map proposed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to give GOP an edge in four seats now held by Democrats – in what is likely the final maneuver in the coast-to-coast redistricting battle that has raged for months between the political parties.
The survey, conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research, found Talarico ahead of Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, 44% to 41%, and ahead of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 46% to 41%.
In deep-red evangelical Texas, does his brand of Christian politics have a chance?
Texas Republicans face their biggest challenge in 30 years as Democrats gain ground in both Senate and House races.
Four-term senator John Cornyn’s Washington friends have about given up on a Trump endorsement, which could even go to his bitter rival Ken Paxton. Either way, Republicans are bickering as upset-minded Democrat James Talarico raises tons of money.
Texas state Rep. James Talarico raked in $27 million during the first three months of 2026, one of the highest on record for a Senate candidate.
The unpopular war with Iran and stubborn affordability issues have given Democrats cause to be more hopeful about their chances of flipping key seats — and maybe even winning control of the Senate.
Get live updates and the latest news on the Trump administration as Ex-Mike Pence aide Olivia Troye announces a run for Congress as a Democrat and Rep. Eric Swalwell says he will resign from Congress amid sexual assault allegations.
Prediction market platform Kalshi announced Wednesday that it has suspended three congressional candidates and imposed financial penalties after they were caught trading on their own election campaigns in violation of the platform's rules.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
