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Who will win the 2026 Texas Senate Race?

Nov 8, 2026, 4:59am UTC, in 115 daysLast updated: Jul 17, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC

Texas Senate winner?

$5.6M

NOV 8, 2026

General Election

Voters choose the office holder.

R. Party

59.0%

D. Party

43.0%

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OddsCurrent Odds

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Total volume

$5.6M

24h volume

$18.6K

R. Party59%

D. Party43%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

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November

TUE 3

Texas 2026 general election

News

AINews Summary

Ken Paxton has secured the Republican nomination for Texas Senate and will face Democrat James Talarico in the general election. Republican leaders are now backing Paxton and जुटting support for the race. The main market effect is a clearer, fully set matchup. Paxton’s nomination clarifies the matchup and may strengthen Republican consolidation. The race still looks competitive enough to draw attention, but the latest news is more about candidate alignment than a clear shift in odds.

Articles

Ccleveland.com14 hours ago

Year-round daylight saving time bill springs ahead in Congress: Capitol Letter

The U.S. House voted Tuesday night to make daylight saving time last all year, but the measure faces opposition in the Senate.

NYNew York Magazine2 days ago

As Maine Goes, So Goes the Senate? Not Necessarily.

Even if the Platner campaign’s implosion saves Susan Collins, Democrats have enough opportunities elsewhere to flip the Senate.

NNewsweek2 days ago

Republican Chances of Beating Annie Andrews to Hold Lindsey Graham’s Seat

Senator Graham's death has upended the Senate race in South Carolina, leaving Republicans searching for a new candidate.

NDNaples Daily News7 hours ago

What is Trump's approval rating in Florida?

President Donald Trump is expected to speak on election integrity on July 16. Elections are run at the state and local levels. See his approval ratings.

SSlate6 days ago

Whose fault is Maine Democrats’ debacle?

Some of the people pointing fingers are the same ones who should be taking blame.

TGThe Gateway Pundit1 month ago

Senator Mike Lee Hits Back After RINO Cornyn Says SAVE America Act is Dead

Senator Mike Lee hit back after RINO Senator John Cornyn pushed back against the SAVE America Act on Saturday.

TDThe Dallas Morning News2 months ago

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Sen. John Cornyn will support the “Republican ticket” in November, but he still believes Attorney General Ken Paxton is a crook who is unfit for office.

NNNBC News2 months ago

Trump’s May primary scorecard: From the Politics Desk

In today’s edition, we take stock of President Donald Trump’s retribution campaign this month as Ken Paxton and James Talarico look ahead to the general election in Texas.

AABC17News.com2 months ago

What to know about James Talarico’s record and his past comments (no, he’s not vegan)

By Patrick Svitek, CNN (CNN) — James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas, is back in the national spotlight after Republicans picked their standard-bearer for the race on Tuesday. Talarico, a state representative, will face off against state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who defeated Sen. John Cornyn in a primary runoff. President Donald

Polls

Polling Average

50%40%30%20%10%0%

44.8%

43.7%

39%

J. Talarico

K. Paxton

J. Cornyn

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Talarico	Paxton	Cornyn
Polling Average	Talarico+1.1	44.8%	43.7%	39.0%
A2 InsightsJun 23 - 28	Talarico+2.3	48.4%	46.1%	–
The New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 19 - 27	Talarico+0.0	47.0%	47.0%	–
SoCal StrategiesJun 21 - 21	Paxton+1.5	47.0%	48.5%	–
Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGovJun 5 - 12	Paxton+1.0	42.0%	43.0%	–
Quantus InsightsJun 3 - 4	Paxton+2.0	43.0%	45.0%	–
ReconMR/Siena UniversityJun 1 - 4	Talarico+1.0	47.0%	46.0%	–
Slingshot StrategiesMay 27 - 28	Talarico+3.0	47.0%	44.0%	–
Public Policy PollingMay 22 - 23	Talarico+7.0	45.0%	38.0%	–
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center/YouGovApr 22 - May 6	Cornyn+1.0	44.0%	–	45.0%
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center/YouGovApr 22 - May 6	Talarico+0.0	45.0%	45.0%	–
Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGovApr 10 - 20	Talarico+8.0	42.0%	34.0%	–
Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGovApr 10 - 20	Talarico+7.0	40.0%	–	33.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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Who will win the 2026 Texas Senate Race?

Texas Senate winner?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

News

Year-round daylight saving time bill springs ahead in Congress: Capitol Letter

As Maine Goes, So Goes the Senate? Not Necessarily.

Republican Chances of Beating Annie Andrews to Hold Lindsey Graham’s Seat

What is Trump's approval rating in Florida?

Whose fault is Maine Democrats’ debacle?

Senator Mike Lee Hits Back After RINO Cornyn Says SAVE America Act is Dead

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Trump’s May primary scorecard: From the Politics Desk

What to know about James Talarico’s record and his past comments (no, he’s not vegan)

Polls

Related races

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Upcoming Events

News

Year-round daylight saving time bill springs ahead in Congress: Capitol Letter

As Maine Goes, So Goes the Senate? Not Necessarily.

Republican Chances of Beating Annie Andrews to Hold Lindsey Graham’s Seat

What is Trump's approval rating in Florida?

Whose fault is Maine Democrats’ debacle?

Senator Mike Lee Hits Back After RINO Cornyn Says SAVE America Act is Dead

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Trump’s May primary scorecard: From the Politics Desk

What to know about James Talarico’s record and his past comments (no, he’s not vegan)

Polls

Related races

Texas Governor winner?

TX-07 House winner?

TX-28 House winner?

TX-15 House winner?