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2026 Texas Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

Name: 2026 Texas Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates — prediction market odds
Creator: kalshi

Election Day: Nov 3, 2026Market closes: Nov 7, 11:59pm ET (Nov 8, 4:59am UTC)Last updated: Aug 7, 2026, 11:53 AM UTC

Texas Senate winner?

$7.3M

NOV 8, 2026

General Election

Voters choose the office holder.

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Race Snapshot

Compare the candidates' live odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated Aug 7, 2026, 11:53 AM UTC.

Candidate	Live odds	Poll average	Funds raised
Ken PaxtonRepublican	52%	45.3%	$9.25M
James TalaricoDemocratic	49%	46.7%	$68.56M

OddsLive Odds

Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 7, 2026, 11:53 AM UTC.

Odds History

Total volume

$7.3M

24h volume

$71.8K

K. Paxton52%

J. Talarico49%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Election Dates and Deadlines

Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.

November

TUE 3

Texas 2026 general election

November

SAT 7

Prediction market closes

Latest Race Updates

Key developments affecting the candidates, polls and prediction market odds.

Texas Senate winner?

A fresh round of Texas coverage and polling has kept James Talarico’s Democratic win contract bid up from 42% to 46%, leaving the race tightly repriced and worth monitoring for follow-through.

46%4%

Latest Election News

Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.

AINews Summary

Talarico is under fire after a victim’s family said his campaign misrepresented contact with them. He had used the case to attack Ken Paxton. Paxton remains the Republican nominee after his runoff win over John Cornyn. The backlash could slightly hurt Talarico’s standing if it sticks, but the effect is unclear from the reports. The race still appears centered on Paxton vs. Talarico.

Articles

FNFox News19 hours ago

Ken Paxton dismisses poll showing Talarico leading Texas Senate race

Ken Paxton says he is undeterred by poll showing James Talarico leading in the Texas Senate race, accusing the Democrat of hiding a socialist agenda on border security and other issues.

FForbes19 hours ago

How Much Is Ken Paxton Worth? A Look At The Scandal-Scarred MAGA Senate Candidate’s Finances

A highly leveraged real estate business, a diversified fund portfolio and a fat pension underpin this Republican’s multimillion-dollar fortune.

BNBreitbart News Network3 days ago

Polls Show Talarico Has Already Topped Out His Support

Polling trends confirm Texas U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico has topped out Democrat support and still cannot reach a winning margin in the state’s 2026 election.

NNewsweek4 days ago

James Talarico Uses Trump’s Own Words Against Texas Republicans’ THC Ban

Talarico described Texas' THC ban as a "gift to the cartels."

PPOLITICO4 days ago

Republicans want to talk about James Talarico’s manhood. Talarico says let them.

Democrats’ hopes to flip the Senate may hinge on the Texas candidate’s strategy to win back male voters.

BNBreitbart News Network4 days ago

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Virginia’s state primary

Virginia residents will vote in a statewide primary on Tuesday to choose nominees for U.S. Senate and U.S. House. WASHINGTON (AP) — For the third

MLM Live Michigan 2 days ago

Hannity disputes Fox News poll showing Democrat ahead in deep red state: ‘I don’t believe it’

A Fox News survey of more than 1,000 registered voters shows Democrat ahead of Republican in what would be a historic upset.

TGThe Gateway Pundit2 months ago

Senator Mike Lee Hits Back After RINO Cornyn Says SAVE America Act is Dead

Senator Mike Lee hit back after RINO Senator John Cornyn pushed back against the SAVE America Act on Saturday.

TDThe Dallas Morning News2 months ago

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Sen. John Cornyn will support the “Republican ticket” in November, but he still believes Attorney General Ken Paxton is a crook who is unfit for office.

NNNBC News2 months ago

Trump’s May primary scorecard: From the Politics Desk

In today’s edition, we take stock of President Donald Trump’s retribution campaign this month as Ken Paxton and James Talarico look ahead to the general election in Texas.

Latest Polls

Polling results and averages based on polls published between May 27, 2026 and Jul 31, 2026.

Polling Average

60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

46.7%

45.3%

J. Talarico

K. Paxton

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Talarico	Paxton
Polling Average	Talarico+1.4	46.7%	45.3%
Wedgewood PollsJul 30 - 31	Talarico+2.0	48.0%	46.0%
YouGov BlueJul 15 - 31	Talarico+3.0	48.0%	45.0%
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterJul 27 - 30	Talarico+2.0	47.0%	45.0%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchJul 23 - 27	Talarico+3.0	51.0%	48.0%
Slingshot StrategiesJul 15 - 17	Talarico+5.0	45.0%	40.0%
A2 InsightsJun 23 - 28	Talarico+2.3	48.4%	46.1%
The New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 19 - 27	Talarico+0.0	47.0%	47.0%
SoCal StrategiesJun 21 - 21	Paxton+1.5	47.0%	48.5%
Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGovJun 5 - 12	Paxton+1.0	42.0%	43.0%
Quantus InsightsJun 3 - 4	Paxton+2.0	43.0%	45.0%
ReconMR/Siena UniversityJun 1 - 4	Talarico+1.0	47.0%	46.0%
Slingshot StrategiesMay 27 - 28	Talarico+3.0	47.0%	44.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Candidate Endorsements

Notable endorsements from elected officials, organizations and public figures.

Ken Paxton

Donald Trump

Donald Trump endorsed Ken Paxton in the Texas Republican Senate runoff.

2026 Texas Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

Texas Senate winner?

Race Snapshot

OddsLive Odds

Odds History

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

Texas Senate winner?

Latest Election News

Ken Paxton dismisses poll showing Talarico leading Texas Senate race

How Much Is Ken Paxton Worth? A Look At The Scandal-Scarred MAGA Senate Candidate’s Finances

Polls Show Talarico Has Already Topped Out His Support

James Talarico Uses Trump’s Own Words Against Texas Republicans’ THC Ban

Republicans want to talk about James Talarico’s manhood. Talarico says let them.

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Virginia’s state primary

Hannity disputes Fox News poll showing Democrat ahead in deep red state: ‘I don’t believe it’

Senator Mike Lee Hits Back After RINO Cornyn Says SAVE America Act is Dead

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Trump’s May primary scorecard: From the Politics Desk

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Texas Governor winner?

TX-15 House winner?

TX-28 House winner?

TX-07 House winner?

Race Snapshot

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

Texas Senate winner?

Latest Election News

Ken Paxton dismisses poll showing Talarico leading Texas Senate race

How Much Is Ken Paxton Worth? A Look At The Scandal-Scarred MAGA Senate Candidate’s Finances

Polls Show Talarico Has Already Topped Out His Support

James Talarico Uses Trump’s Own Words Against Texas Republicans’ THC Ban

Republicans want to talk about James Talarico’s manhood. Talarico says let them.

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Virginia’s state primary

Hannity disputes Fox News poll showing Democrat ahead in deep red state: ‘I don’t believe it’

Senator Mike Lee Hits Back After RINO Cornyn Says SAVE America Act is Dead

John Cornyn stands by criticism of Ken Paxton as unfit for office

Trump’s May primary scorecard: From the Politics Desk

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Texas Governor winner?

TX-15 House winner?

TX-28 House winner?

TX-07 House winner?