State Lean
Lean Republican
Battleground watch
ClosedGeneral Election
2026 Texas Senate Election Polls, Odds & Candidates
Election Day: Recorded market close:
Texas Senate winner?
$86.7M
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Race Snapshot
Compare the candidates' saved odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Saved odds | Poll average | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 47.7% | $68.56M | |
| 30% | 45.1% | $9.25M |
OddsSaved odds
Prices saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
Odds History
Total volume
$86.7M
24h volume
$15.6M
source: Kalshi
Politics IQ
Structural race context from reviewed jurisdiction data
Texas · US Senate
Lean RepublicanBattleground watchRunoff possible
Primary System
Party primary with runoff
Runoff possible: May 26, 2026
Election Rules
Primary Mar 3, 2026
Runoff: May 26, 2026
General: Nov 3, 2026
Early voting
Early voting generally begins on the 17th day before Election Day and ends on the fourth day before Election Day.
Sources reviewed May 2, 2026 · U.S. Senate, Class II senators · U.S. Senate, current senator list · 270toWin/Cook · NCSL
Election Dates and Deadlines
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Latest Election News
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
AINews Summary
Recent coverage says the Texas Senate race remains very close between Ken Paxton and James Talarico. Republicans are also pouring money into the race, while Paxton faces new scrutiny over an alleged confrontation in London. Wesley Hunt’s ambassador nomination removes a former primary contender from the Texas Senate field. The close polling keeps the race highly competitive and likely sustains uncertainty. Outside spending and campaign activity suggest both sides are still investing heavily, while the Paxton allegation could add some downside risk for Republicans.
Articles
F4FOX 4 News20 hours ago
Talarico, Paxton make final pitches to Texas voters ahead of Election Day
Both James Talarico and Ken Paxton have wrapped up their U.S. Senate campaigns as voters will head to the polls tomorrow to decide their choice.
CCNBC1 day ago
Prediction market traders now see nearly 75% chance of Democrats winning the Senate
Just a day before the midterms, Kalshi traders give Democrats a 74% of controlling the Senate.
MLM Live Michigan 1 day ago
Senate midterms 2026: Latest polls show GOP trouble in battleground states
In order to flip the Senate, Democrats need to keep control of their 47 seats and gain four more.
SSlate2 days ago
This Wasn’t Supposed to Be Senate Democrats’ Year. Here’s What Changed.
The party is in the midst of a remarkable comeback—mostly thanks to one man.
CNCBS News19 hours ago
Ken Paxton holds final Senate campaign rally in Allen ahead of midterm elections
In the city where he announced his first campaign for state representative nearly 25 years ago, Paxton came home to Allen for his last U.S. Senate campaign rally in front of about 100 supporters.
N5NBC 5 Chicago1 day ago
Election 2026: Races to watch in the House, Senate
The 2026 election is nearly here, and battles for control of the U.S. Senate and House are continuing to heat up
UTUSA TODAY1 day ago
What early voting data tell us about the 2026 midterm elections
Approximately 54 million Americans have offered a glimpse into the midterm election, which is seeing an uptick in younger and racially diverse voters.
RSRaw Story1 day ago
GOP efforts to interfere with election mocked as 'Comic Sans on a Burger King placemat'
A former top Justice Department official had a brutal review for one of the latest Republican lawsuits seeking to throw this week’s election into doubt.Wired reported on the extraordinary steps President Donald Trump's DOJ has taken to interfere with the Nov. 3 election, and a former official pointe...
F4FOX 4 News1 day ago
Talarico leads Paxton in latest poll on Texas Senate race
The poll was conducted by New York Times/Sienna between Oct. 27 and Nov. 1. It has a margin of error of =/- 3.4%.
Latest Polls
Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
47.7%
45.1%
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign Fundraising
Total RaisedCash on Hand
Jun 30, 2026$100M
$75M
$50M
$25M
$0
J. Talarico
K. Paxton
Candidate
Total Raised
Cash on Hand
Burn Rate (per month)
Last report
J. TalaricoJames Talarico$68.56MContrib: $65.93M
$21.55MSpent: $47.01M
$2.61MLast period: $24.86M
JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026
K. PaxtonKen Paxton$9.25MContrib: $9.24M
$1.76MSpent: $7.49M
$416.3KLast period: $1.62M
JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026
Source: FEC
Saved Kalshi settlement results
These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.
Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
Texas Senate winner?
All preserved contracts have verified final results.
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?
Final: Yes
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 4:35 AM UTC
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?
Final: No
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 4:35 AM UTC