Prediction Edge
Democrat
Jarrett Keohokalole

Jarrett Keohokalole

Democratic candidate for U.S. House in Hawaii

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Jarrett Keohokalole is trading at 0% to win the HI-01 Democratic nominee? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleFormer State Representative

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyProgressive Democrat

Age43 years old (Aug 7, 1983)

GenderMale

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LocationHawaii

BackgroundPolitician

EducationUniversity of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa — B.A. (Journalism)

Notable personal detailsJarrett K. Keohokalole is an American politician and attorney who has served in the Hawaiʻi State Senate (District 24) since 2018 and previously served in the Hawaiʻi House of Representatives (District 48) from 2014 to 2018. He earned a B.A. in Journalism and a J.D. from the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, including a certificate in Native Hawaiian Law. He is a Democratic candidate for U.S. House in Hawaiʻi’s 1st Congressional District.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

The candidate has supported targeted tax measures such as expanding the state research & development tax credit and has sponsored legislation aimed at stabilizing markets (e.g., property insurance) to reduce costs for homeowners. Public materials emphasize supporting local businesses, entrepreneurship, and a resilient economy but do not present a comprehensive stance on tax rates for individuals or proposals to raise or cut broad tax brackets.

Healthcare

Supports expanding access to affordable, high-quality healthcare for all residents and strengthening public programs (Medicaid) and services; has worked on legislation and policies to lower healthcare costs and support providers who serve Medicaid patients.

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Immigration & Border

Supports limiting expansion of immigration enforcement at the local level and opposes federal travel bans that restrict immigration from Pacific Island nations; advocates for humane, family‑focused immigration policies. Sponsors state legislation that would prohibit local agencies from taking on delegated federal immigration‑enforcement authority and has publicly condemned federal travel‑ban expansions as discriminatory and harmful to Pacific Islander families.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports protecting and expanding access to abortion and helped pass state legislation to explicitly establish and shield abortion access in Hawaii after the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Co-sponsored and publicly supported SB1 (2023) which affirms the state will not deny or interfere with a pregnant person's right to obtain an abortion and includes protections for patients and providers. Campaign materials state he played a central role in passing that legislation.

Climate & Energy

Supports renewable energy expansion, carbon reduction, and climate resilience policies for Hawai‘i; has sponsored and celebrated legislation addressing climate-related insurance and infrastructure resilience. Has criticized utility actions seen as harmful to ratepayers and has pushed for accountability in the wake of wildfire impacts.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports expanded firearm restrictions such as banning unserialized “ghost guns” and opposed measures to expand lawful possession of assault-style firearms, while operating within a lawmaker role rather than a campaign-only statement.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 9, 2026

Jarrett Keohokalole lost Hawaii’s Democratic primary for U.S. House to Rep. Ed Case. Case will move on to the general election against Republican Adriel Lam in November. Recent coverage mainly centered on Keohokalole as Case’s challenger in the primary race.

en.wikipedia.org+58

Latest Polls

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Jarrett Keohokalole currently averages 27.3%, ranking second in this race, 11.5 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 27.3%Position: secondMargin: -11.5 ptsLatest poll: 47.0% (Jul 24 - 24)Polls included: 4

Average recalculated from polls through Jul 24 - 24.

Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
27.3%
38.8%
16%
Jarrett Keohokalole
J. Keohokalole
Ed Case
E. Case
Della Au Belatti
D. Belatti
Date (Start - End)SpreadKeohokaloleCaseBelatti
Polling Average
Case+11.5
27.3%38.8%16.0%
Blueprint PollingJul 24 - 24
Keohokalole+9.0
47.0%38.0%
Blueprint PollingJul 7 - 8
Case+8.0
25.0%33.0%
Data for ProgressOct 6 - 14
Case+28.0
12.0%40.0%16.0%
Data for ProgressOct 6 - 14
Case+19.0
25.0%44.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$963.5K
$722.6K
$481.7K
$240.9K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$963.5K
$81.4K
$882.1K
$46.4K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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