Prediction Edge
RepublicanIncumbent
Jay Obernolte

Jay Obernolte

Overview

Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports lowering taxes to encourage job growth, reducing wasteful federal spending, and enacting a balanced federal budget; favors cutting government spending and repealing certain taxes (e.g., gas taxes) to provide relief for families.

Healthcare

Supports patient-centered, personalized healthcare with expanded telehealth access and fiscally responsible reforms that increase choices and lower costs without reducing benefits. Has supported reforms to Medicaid and introduced bipartisan, targeted healthcare legislation (e.g., suicide lifeline cybersecurity, organ-donor assistance) rather than proposals for single-payer or Medicare for All.

Show more

Immigration & Border

The candidate emphasizes securing the southern border, stopping illegal immigration, and supporting use of detention facilities and enforcement resources. He advocates fixing the immigration system to encourage legal immigration while prioritizing border security and reducing illegal crossings.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports pro-life policies and restrictions on abortion, viewing regulation primarily as a matter for states rather than a federal constitutional right. Endorsed/scored by pro-life organizations and described in voter guides as opposing unrestricted access to abortion.

Climate & Energy

Supports a diverse energy mix with an emphasis on nuclear power and resilience measures; promotes conservative approaches to climate policy and prioritizes fiscal oversight of federal energy programs. Has sponsored and supported legislation focused on wildfire resilience and community adaptation to climate-driven disasters.

Public Safety & Guns

Jay Obernolte identifies as a strong supporter of the Second Amendment and has voted against expanding federal background-check requirements for private firearm transfers. His public record and ratings indicate opposition to additional gun-control measures while supporting gun-owner rights.

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

Jay Obernolte is in the news for helping lead a bipartisan push on federal AI regulation. He and Rep. Lori Trahan have released a draft bill that would set national standards for frontier AI, require audits and safety planning, and limit some state AI laws for a period of time. He has also been promoting a separate bipartisan disaster readiness bill aimed at helping states identify transportation assets vulnerable to natural disasters. Earlier, he won the House Republican Policy Committee chairmanship, giving him a more influential GOP policy role.

obernolte.house.gov+44

Polls

CA-23 primary: first place
Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
48%
5%
Jay Obernolte
J. Obernolte
Tessa Lynn Hodge
T. Hodge
Karen Matthews
K. Matthews
Date (Start - End)SpreadObernolteHodgeMatthews
Polling Average
Obernolte+43.0
48.0%5.0%4.0%
Change ResearchMar 17 - 20
Obernolte+43.0
48.0%5.0%4.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

CA-23 primary: first place

Endorsers of Jay Obernolte for CA-23 primary: first place

California Republican Party

Public figure

The California Republican Party endorsed Jay Obernolte for California's 23rd Congressional District.

Learn more

Log Cabin Republicans PAC

Political organization

Log Cabin Republicans PAC endorsed Jay Obernolte for Congress in California's 23rd District.

Learn more

Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026
Total raisedCash on hand
$1.6M
$1.2M
$822.1K
$411.1K
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$1.1M
$370.2K
$759.9K
$31.7K

Cycle 2024

$1.5M
$997.8K
$905.2K
$37.7K

Cycle 2026

$1.5M
$1.6M
$809.5K
$45.0K

Source: FEC