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2026 California House Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

Name: 2026 California House Election Polls, Odds & Candidates — prediction market odds
Creator: kalshi

Election Day: Nov 3, 2026Market closes: Nov 6, 11:59pm ET (Nov 7, 4:59am UTC)

CA-23 House winner?

$996.48

NOV 3, 2026

General Election

Voters choose the office holder.

Deposit $20, get $50 on Polymarket

Race Snapshot

Compare the candidates' live odds and fundraising. Updated Sep 9, 2026, 10:23 PM UTC.

Candidate	Live odds	Funds raised
Jay Obernolte	96%	$1.46M
Tessa Lynn Hodge	4%	$79.5K

OddsLive Odds

Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Sep 9, 2026, 10:23 PM UTC.

Odds History

Total volume

$996

24h volume

J. Obernolte96%

T. Hodge4%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Election Dates and Deadlines

Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.

November

TUE 3

California 2026 general election

November

FRI 6

Prediction market closes

Latest Race Updates

Key developments affecting the candidates, polls and prediction market odds.

CA-23 House winner?

Tessa Lynn Hodge's odds in "CA-23 House winner?" are now 4%, below the prior low of 9.5%.

4%5%

Latest Election News

Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.

AINews Summary

There is no district-specific update for California's 23rd in the provided news. The main takeaway is a broader preview of competitive House races and a separate report that Republicans have gained seats from redistricting. That adds context for the 2026 House environment, but not a clear shift in this district. The provided news does not give district-specific polling or candidate changes for California's 23rd, so the market impact is limited. The redistricting story is broadly favorable to Republicans overall, but its effect on this district is unclear.

Articles

PPOLITICO1 day ago

The insurgent Democrat taking on David Valadao

The 31-year-old progressive is betting his working-class roots and economic message can energize voters in one of the country’s youngest congressional districts.

PNPBS News2 days ago

Armed man charged toward Democratic candidate for Ohio governor at fair, law enforcement says

The Ohio State Highway Patrol says an armed assailant charged toward the Democratic candidate for Ohio governor, Amy Acton, during a campaign stop at the Canfield Fair, injuring several people before he was stopped by troopers.

RReuters3 days ago

US House races to watch in the 2026 midterm elections

Only about 50 of the 435 races for the House of Representatives are expected to be competitive on the November 3 U.S. midterm ballot, but they could decide whether Democrats gain the three seats needed to reclaim control of the chamber from Republicans.

FNFox News13 days ago

Trump's congressional redistricting push nets Republicans 10 seats

Donald Trump's redistricting push has netted Republicans at least 10 more right-leaning congressional seats as the GOP fights to hold its House majority ahead of midterm elections.

NNNBC News4 months ago

Live updates: Trump to arrive in China for Xi summit; Nebraska congressional primary too close to call

Get live updates and the latest news as Trump arrives in China for his summit with Xi Jinping and the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary remains too close to call.

CTChicago Tribune13 days ago

Republicans face a midterm verdict as Iran war drags on months longer than Trump promised

The Iran war has reshaped the rapidly approaching midterm elections, undermining Trump’s campaign pledge to steer clear of foreign conflicts and challenging Republicans who would rather focus on their tax cuts as they cling to narrow majorities in Congress.

WCWDIV ClickOnDetroit16 days ago

El-Sayed distances himself from popular streamer's comments on Israel and Jewish Americans

Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Michigan, has distanced himself from progressive online commentator Hasan Piker.

SASanta Ana Orange County Register3 months ago

Democrats blame the party, each other and themselves in CA-40 June primary shutout

GOP Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim are set to advance in a district designed to be a stronghold for Republicans. But Democratic voters and candidates say CA-40 isn't a lost cause.

UWUs Weekly3 months ago

Stars React to Spencer Pratt Losing Race for L.A. Mayor

Celebrities have reacted to Spencer Pratt losing the Los Angeles mayoral race as Nithya Raman and Karen Bass prepare for runoff election

NYNew York Post4 months ago

Chelsea Handler ignites feud with Spencer Pratt

Chelsea Handler reignited a feud with Spencer Pratt after unleashing a profanity-laced video mocking his L.A. mayoral run and comparing him to Donald Trump.

Campaign Fundraising

Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Jun 30, 2026

$2M

$1.5M

$1M

$500K

J. Obernolte

T. Hodge

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

J. ObernolteJay Obernolte

$1.46MContrib: $1.36M

$1.64MSpent: $809.5K

$45.0KLast period: $248.9K

JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026

T. HodgeTessa Lynn Hodge

$79.5KContrib: $75.6K

$10.2KSpent: $69.3K

$3.8KLast period: $13.5K

JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

Polls
Endorsements

2026 California House Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

CA-23 House winner?

Race Snapshot

OddsLive Odds

Odds History

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

CA-23 House winner?

Latest Election News

The insurgent Democrat taking on David Valadao

Armed man charged toward Democratic candidate for Ohio governor at fair, law enforcement says

US House races to watch in the 2026 midterm elections

Trump's congressional redistricting push nets Republicans 10 seats

Live updates: Trump to arrive in China for Xi summit; Nebraska congressional primary too close to call

Republicans face a midterm verdict as Iran war drags on months longer than Trump promised

El-Sayed distances himself from popular streamer's comments on Israel and Jewish Americans

Democrats blame the party, each other and themselves in CA-40 June primary shutout

Stars React to Spencer Pratt Losing Race for L.A. Mayor

Chelsea Handler ignites feud with Spencer Pratt

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

California Governor winner? (Person)

California Governor winner?

CA-11 House winner?

Race Snapshot

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

CA-23 House winner?

Latest Election News

The insurgent Democrat taking on David Valadao

Armed man charged toward Democratic candidate for Ohio governor at fair, law enforcement says

US House races to watch in the 2026 midterm elections

Trump's congressional redistricting push nets Republicans 10 seats

Live updates: Trump to arrive in China for Xi summit; Nebraska congressional primary too close to call

Republicans face a midterm verdict as Iran war drags on months longer than Trump promised

El-Sayed distances himself from popular streamer's comments on Israel and Jewish Americans

Democrats blame the party, each other and themselves in CA-40 June primary shutout

Stars React to Spencer Pratt Losing Race for L.A. Mayor

Chelsea Handler ignites feud with Spencer Pratt

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

California Governor winner? (Person)

California Governor winner?

CA-11 House winner?