Change Research
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
48%
5%
Republican
Incumbent
IncumbentJay Obernolte
Incumbent Republican candidate for U.S. House in California
CA-23 primary: first place
$1.2K
JUN 6, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Live Odds
Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.
Jay Obernolte is trading at 99% to win the CA-23 primary: first place on prediction markets.
Candidate Overview
Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.
Current roleU.S. Representative
PartyRepublican
Political ideologyConservative Republican
Age56 years old (Aug 18, 1970)
GenderMale
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LocationCalifornia
BackgroundU.S. Representative
EducationCalifornia Institute of Technology — B.S. (1992)
Notable personal detailsJay Phillip Obernolte is a Republican member of the U.S. House of Representatives, serving California's 23rd congressional district since January 3, 2021. He previously served on the Big Bear Lake city council and as mayor, and later represented the 33rd district in the California State Assembly (2014–2020). Obernolte is an entrepreneur and pilot and has worked in the video game industry.
SourcesShowHide
history.house.govfec.goven.wikipedia.orgthecandidate.comdocquery.fec.govpostman.comde.wikipedia.orgcontent.lavote.govlittlesis.orgfec-dev-api.app.cloud.govfilpac.comkernvote.comvotervoice.netjoincalifornia.comispolitical.comwikidata.orgreddit.comobernolte.house.govjustfacts.votesmart.orguploads.rov.sbcounty.govontheissues.orgsbaprolife.orgivoterguide.comscience.house.govhuffman.house.govclerk.house.govelectjay.comsbcsentinel.comcongress.govwaysandmeans.house.govbudget.house.govhouse.mn.govfacebook.compolitico.cominstagram.comballotpedia.orgsarajacobs.house.goveenews.netpunchbowl.newstimesofsandiego.commoaa.orgtransformernews.aithecentersquare.comfoxnews.comwashingtonreporter.newsshannongroveca.comes.wikipedia.orgbioguide.congress.govnews.ballotpedia.orgcdn.ballotpedia.orgapi.congress.govfr.wikipedia.orgdeveloper.ballotpedia.orgbioguideretro.congress.gov
Political Positions
LiberalConservative
Economy & Taxes
Supports lowering taxes to encourage job growth, reducing wasteful federal spending, and enacting a balanced federal budget; favors cutting government spending and repealing certain taxes (e.g., gas taxes) to provide relief for families.
Healthcare
Supports patient-centered, personalized healthcare with expanded telehealth access and fiscally responsible reforms that increase choices and lower costs without reducing benefits. Has supported reforms to Medicaid and introduced bipartisan, targeted healthcare legislation (e.g., suicide lifeline cybersecurity, organ-donor assistance) rather than proposals for single-payer or Medicare for All.
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Immigration & Border
The candidate emphasizes securing the southern border, stopping illegal immigration, and supporting use of detention facilities and enforcement resources. He advocates fixing the immigration system to encourage legal immigration while prioritizing border security and reducing illegal crossings.
Abortion & Reproductive Rights
Supports pro-life policies and restrictions on abortion, viewing regulation primarily as a matter for states rather than a federal constitutional right. Endorsed/scored by pro-life organizations and described in voter guides as opposing unrestricted access to abortion.
Climate & Energy
Supports a diverse energy mix with an emphasis on nuclear power and resilience measures; promotes conservative approaches to climate policy and prioritizes fiscal oversight of federal energy programs. Has sponsored and supported legislation focused on wildfire resilience and community adaptation to climate-driven disasters.
Public Safety & Guns
Jay Obernolte identifies as a strong supporter of the Second Amendment and has voted against expanding federal background-check requirements for private firearm transfers. His public record and ratings indicate opposition to additional gun-control measures while supporting gun-owner rights.
Latest News
AINews Summary
Last updatedSep 2, 2026
Jay Obernolte is in the news mainly for leading a new bipartisan push on AI policy. He and Rep. Lori Trahan released a draft federal AI bill that would set national standards, require audits and safety planning, and limit some state AI rules for a few years. He also discussed the proposal publicly, with attention on workforce disruption and how far federal preemption should go. Separately, Obernolte recently won the House Republican Policy Committee chairmanship and co-sponsored a bipartisan disaster readiness bill with Rep. George Whitesides.
history.house.gov+53
Articles
SASanta Ana Orange County Register5 months ago
Inland Empire GOP Rep. Jay Obernolte gets a big promotion
Positive
SDSan Diego Union-Tribune3 months ago
A conversation with Congressman Jay Obernolte on artificial intelligence
Neutral
GGizmodo3 months ago
New Bipartisan Legislation Takes a Big Step Forward in Restricting State Regulation of AI
Neutral
SCSanta Clarita Valley Signal3 months ago
Whitesides introduces bipartisan bill on disaster readiness
Positive
Latest Polls
CA-23 primary: first place
Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign Fundraising
Latest report: Cycle 2026Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.
Total raisedCash on hand
$1.6M
$1.2M
$822.1K
$411.1K
$0
2022
2024
2026
LatestYear
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate
Cycle 2022
$1.1M
$370.2K
$759.9K
$31.7K
Cycle 2024
$1.5M
$997.8K
$905.2K
$37.7K
Cycle 2026
$1.5M
$1.6M
$809.5K
$45.0K
Source: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
- Endorsements