Prediction Edge
Republican
John McGuire

John McGuire

Republican candidate for U.S. House in Virginia

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

John McGuire is trading at 100% to win the VA-05 Republican nominee? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age58 years old (Aug 24, 1968)

GenderMale

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LocationVirginia

BackgroundPolitician

EducationHenrico High School (graduated 1988)

Notable personal detailsJohn Joseph McGuire III is a Republican politician and former U.S. Navy SEAL serving as the U.S. representative for Virginia's 5th congressional district (in office since 2025). He previously served in the Virginia House of Delegates (2018–2024) and the Virginia Senate (2024–2025). He is also a small-business owner and has operated a fitness training business.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports pro-growth, business-friendly tax policies and tax relief for working families while advocating for efficient use of federal dollars and targeted rescissions of programs. Emphasizes preserving or advancing tax cuts and pro-growth provisions rather than raising taxes.

Healthcare

Supports strengthening veterans’ healthcare and rural health programs while voting with Republican legislation that emphasizes spending reductions and regulatory change; opposes expansive government-run healthcare.

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Immigration & Border

John McGuire supports stronger immigration enforcement and cooperation with federal immigration authorities, opposes policies that limit local cooperation with ICE, and frames immigration concerns in law-and-order and border-security terms. His public statements and campaign materials emphasize support for federal enforcement actions and criticize sanctuary policies.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

John McGuire supports restrictions on abortion and has backed federal measures that limit abortion funding and regulate abortion-related practices. His congressional activity includes cosponsoring bills that prohibit taxpayer-funded abortions, restrict funding to abortion providers, and advance measures related to chemical-abortion information and limits on abortion-related training.

Climate & Energy

Supports reducing federal regulatory scope and emphasizes reliable infrastructure and agriculture; has opposed certain climate regulations such as Virginia’s electric vehicle mandate. Overall favors market-driven or limited-government approaches to energy policy rather than aggressive federal climate mandates.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate identifies as pro-gun and received a “Very Pro-Gun” grade from the Virginia Citizens Defense League. Public events and campaign materials indicate support for strong Second Amendment positions and opposition to restrictive gun-control measures.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedSep 2, 2026

John McGuire is in the news because he is the Republican in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District race, where he is set to face Democrat Tom Perriello in the November general election. Recent coverage has focused on the district’s primary and the broader Virginia House election landscape rather than on any new action by McGuire himself. The race is being watched as a competitive contest in a district that leaned Republican in the last presidential election.

history.house.gov+45

Latest Polls

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Expedition Strategies
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
47%
John McGuire
J. McGuire
Date (Start - End)SpreadShare
Expedition StrategiesAug 1, 2026
47.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$1.8M
$1.3M
$890.9K
$445.5K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$1.8M
$524.3K
$1.3M
$68.0K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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