Prediction Edge
Republican
John Nagel

John Nagel

Republican candidate for U.S. House in Minnesota

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

John Nagel is trading at 20% to win the MN-05 Republican nominee? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleMinnesota State Patrol (retired)

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

GenderMale

LocationMinnesota

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BackgroundMinnesota State Patrol (retired)

Notable personal detailsJohn Nagel is a Republican candidate for U.S. House in Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District (MN-05) in the 2026 cycle. He is a retired Minnesota State Patrol veteran, describing a 30-year career with the agency. He previously ran as the Republican nominee for Minnesota House District 46B in 2024.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

John Nagel emphasizes lowering the cost of living, reducing fraud and corruption in government, and supporting market-based wage policy. In a voter guide, he also said he would rather see no tax on tips and let the market set wages.

Healthcare

John Nagel says Medicare should remain available for people who have paid into it, alongside additional private insurance choices for those who want them. He does not endorse universal government-funded healthcare and instead favors a limited public role with private coverage options.

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Immigration & Border

John Nagel supports hardline border enforcement. His campaign site says he wants the border locked down tightly and treats border security as a national security issue, and his voter guide response says to build the wall and arrest and return all illegal aliens to their home countries.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

John Nagel’s questionnaire response says elective abortion should be allowed only to save the life of the mother. He also supports restrictions on chemical abortion drugs and opposes taxpayer funding for abortion providers such as Planned Parenthood.

Climate & Energy

The campaign site emphasizes energy independence and American energy dominance. It opposes Biden-era policies, pipelines shutdowns, drilling restrictions, and what it calls the radical Green New Deal agenda, while arguing for lower energy costs and stronger domestic production.

Public Safety & Guns

John Nagel emphasizes law-and-order approaches, saying violent criminals should be kept off the streets and that police should receive strong funding and support. On gun policy, he has said Minnesota gun laws are already sufficient and that officials should enforce existing laws rather than add more restrictions.

Endorsements

MN-05 Republican nominee?

Endorsers of John Nagel for MN-05 Republican nominee?

Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life (MCCL)

Public endorsement

Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life (MCCL) endorsed John Nagel for Congress.

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Minnesota Police and Peace Officers Association (MPPOA)

Advocacy group

Minnesota Police and Peace Officers Association (MPPOA) endorsed John Nagel.

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Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$747.0K
$560.3K
$373.5K
$186.8K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$747.0K
$46.9K
$700.1K
$36.8K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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