Prediction Edge
DemocratIncumbent
Katie Hobbs

Katie Hobbs

Incumbent Democratic candidate for Governor in Arizona

Live Odds — Arizona Governor winner?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

88%chance to win

$591.7KNOV 7, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleGovernor

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyModerate Democrat

Age56 years old (Dec 28, 1969)

GenderFemale

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LocationArizona

BackgroundPolitician

EducationNorthern Arizona University (BSW)

Notable personal detailsKathleen Marie Hobbs is an American politician serving as the 24th governor of Arizona, sworn in on 2023-01-02 after winning the 2022 gubernatorial election. A Democrat, she previously served in the Arizona Legislature (Arizona House and Arizona Senate) and was Senate Minority Leader. She later served as Arizona Secretary of State (2019–2023). She holds social work degrees from Northern Arizona University and Arizona State University.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports targeted tax relief for middle-class Arizonans (increasing the standard deduction, exemptions for tips/overtime, additional deductions for seniors) while opposing large tax cuts for the wealthy; proposes budget measures and tax credits to fund housing, childcare, and affordability programs. Advocates using tax policy to support working families and preserve funding for public services rather than giving broad handouts to high earners.

Healthcare

Supports expanding and protecting public health coverage and strengthening Medicaid (AHCCCS), with programs to improve access in rural areas and investments in the healthcare workforce. Opposes cuts or rollbacks to Medicaid expansion and pursues state initiatives to increase access and affordability. Focuses on practical expansions like Medicaid restoration, rural health funding, and workforce development rather than single-payer proposals.

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Immigration & Border

Supports protections for Dreamers and a pathway to citizenship while opposing criminalization and broad state enforcement measures; at the same time she has deployed state resources (National Guard, task forces, funding) to strengthen border security and disrupt transnational criminal organizations.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports protecting and expanding access to abortion and reproductive health care, has taken executive and legislative actions to block enforcement of restrictive pre-statehood and post-Dobbs bans, and has called for constitutional protections and laws to safeguard abortion, contraception, and IVF access in Arizona.

Climate & Energy

Supports building a clean energy economy and investing in grid resilience, distributed solar, and extreme-heat preparedness while pursuing policies to lower energy costs and protect water and natural resources. Emphasizes state-led clean energy programs (e.g., Solar for All), grid modernization grants, and a Resilient Arizona water, climate, and energy plan. Prioritizes climate adaptation measures such as an Extreme Heat Preparedness Plan and a statewide resilience office.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports expanded gun-safety measures and has used gubernatorial power to block legislation that would expand gun access; emphasizes common-sense protections for survivors and preserving local authority to regulate guns. Prioritizes public-safety investments for law enforcement while vetoing bills that would loosen firearm rules on campuses and allow silencers.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedSep 2, 2026

Katie Hobbs has named former Mesa Mayor John Giles as her running mate for her 2026 reelection campaign, creating a bipartisan ticket as she prepares to face Republican Rep. Andy Biggs. Biggs has already won the GOP primary, setting up the general election matchup. Hobbs has also said she will not debate Biggs, and the race is drawing attention for campaign attacks and other political tensions.

en.wikipedia.org+45

Latest Polls

Arizona Governor winner?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Katie Hobbs currently averages 45.5%, ranking first in this race, 5.7 points ahead of the nearest opponent.

Polling average: 45.5%Position: firstMargin: +5.7 ptsLatest poll: 39.0% (Aug 17 - 19)Polls included: 22

Average recalculated from polls through Aug 17 - 19.

Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
45.5%
39.8%
Katie Hobbs
K. Hobbs
Andy Biggs
A. Biggs
Date (Start - End)SpreadHobbsBiggs
Polling Average
Hobbs+5.7
45.5%39.8%
NextGen PollingAug 17 - 19
Hobbs+1.5
39.0%37.5%
HighGroundAug 15 - 18
Hobbs+15.2
49.5%34.3%
Quantus InsightsAug 14 - 17
Hobbs+5.9
49.1%43.2%
Kreate StrategiesAug 13 - 16
Hobbs+5.0
45.0%40.0%
Noble Predictive InsightsAug 10 - 13
Hobbs+13.0
48.0%35.0%
Stealth AnalyticsAug 11 - 13
Hobbs+5.0
43.0%38.0%
GrayhouseAug 9 - 11
Hobbs+4.0
49.0%45.0%
Tarrance GroupJul 27 - 30
Hobbs+4.0
52.0%48.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchJul 26 - 28
Hobbs+8.0
52.0%44.0%
Noble Predictive InsightsMay 5 - 7
Hobbs+4.0
41.0%37.0%
TIPP InsightsApr 20 - 24
Hobbs+10.0
48.0%38.0%
TIPP InsightsApr 20 - 24
Hobbs+10.0
45.0%35.0%
Noble Predictive InsightsFeb 23 - 26
Hobbs+5.0
42.0%37.0%
Center for Excellence in PollingJan 22 - 24
Hobbs+9.0
50.0%41.0%
NextGen PollingDec 15 - 17
Hobbs+19.0
51.0%32.0%
Emerson CollegeNov 8 - 10
Hobbs+0.7
44.1%43.4%
Noble Predictive InsightsAug 11 - 18
Hobbs+2.0
39.0%37.0%
Noble Predictive InsightsMay 12 - 16
Hobbs+2.0
40.0%38.0%
Pulse Decision SicenceApr 6 - 9
Hobbs+4.0
46.0%42.0%
Kreate StrategiesMar 31 - Apr 2
Biggs+2.0
46.0%48.0%
Noble Predictive InsightsFeb 11 - 13
Hobbs+2.0
40.0%38.0%
Kreate StrategiesFeb 5 - 7
Biggs+1.0
43.0%44.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements
  • Fundraising