Prediction Edge
RepublicanIncumbent
Kelly Ayotte

Kelly Ayotte

Incumbent Republican candidate for Governor in New Hampshire

Live Odds — New Hampshire Governor winner?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

90%chance to win

$42.3KNOV 7, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleGovernor

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyModerate Republican

Age58 years old (Jun 27, 1968)

GenderFemale

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LocationNew Hampshire

BackgroundAttorney

EducationPennsylvania State University — BA (1990)

Notable personal detailsKelly Ann Ayotte is an American attorney and Republican politician who has served as the 83rd governor of New Hampshire since 2025. She previously served as New Hampshire attorney general (2004–2009) and as a United States senator from New Hampshire (2011–2017). She earned a BA from Pennsylvania State University and a JD from Villanova University School of Law. She lives in Nashua, New Hampshire, with her husband Joe Daley and their two children.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

The candidate opposes implementing an income or sales tax in New Hampshire and supports cutting or protecting against new taxes while seeking reductions in state spending. Her budget and campaign messaging prioritize maintaining the state’s low-tax advantage and looking for tax reductions where feasible while avoiding tax increases.

Healthcare

The candidate has supported repealing the Affordable Care Act and favors market-based reforms to lower costs, including expanding health savings accounts, increasing competition, and reducing certain ACA mandates. She has also supported state-administered programs like SCHIP and measures addressing mental-health and substance-abuse treatment while opposing elements of the ACA she says raise costs for businesses and families.

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger immigration enforcement and cooperation with federal authorities, opposes sanctuary-city policies, and has expressed opposition to amnesty while calling for secured borders. As governor she signed laws banning sanctuary jurisdictions and directed municipalities to comply with federal immigration detainers where permitted.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports maintaining New Hampshire's current law allowing abortion up to 24 weeks and says she would veto legislation that further restricts abortion access; accepts existing late-term limits in state law. Has previously held more restrictive positions historically but during her gubernatorial campaign pledged to protect the current statutory framework and reproductive treatments such as IVF.

Climate & Energy

Supports an “all-of-the-above” energy strategy that includes renewables, natural gas, and expanded nuclear (including small modular reactors) while prioritizing affordability and energy independence; favors cautious expansion of net metering that protects ratepayers and has opposed some offshore wind projects. In her Senate career she acknowledged human contribution to climate change but opposed certain regulatory approaches such as cap-and-trade and carbon taxes, and in recent campaigning has emphasized nuclear and traditional fuels alongside clean-energy options.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate supports the Second Amendment and has a record of opposing broad expansions of gun-sale background check mandates while backing improvements to background-check systems—especially to ensure relevant mental-health records are included. She has emphasized due-process protections when proposing fixes and frames her approach as protecting gun rights while addressing specific safety gaps.

Latest Polls

New Hampshire Governor winner?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Kelly Ayotte currently averages 47.9%, ranking first in this race, 10.0 points ahead of the nearest opponent.

Polling average: 47.9%Position: firstMargin: +10.0 ptsLatest poll: 55.0% (Sep 9 - 11)Polls included: 7

Average recalculated from polls through Sep 9 - 11.

Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
47.9%
37.9%
Kelly Ayotte
K. Ayotte
Cinde Warmington
C. Warmington
Date (Start - End)SpreadAyotteWarmington
Polling Average
Ayotte+10.0
47.9%37.9%
co/efficientSep 9 - 11
Ayotte+21.0
55.0%34.0%
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterAug 20 - 24
Ayotte+10.0
49.0%39.0%
Saint Anselm College Survey CenterAug 17 - 18
Ayotte+11.0
49.0%38.0%
Saint Anselm College Survey CenterJun 24 - 25
Ayotte+8.0
45.0%37.0%
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterJun 18 - 23
Ayotte+5.0
44.0%39.0%
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterApr 17 - 21
Ayotte+8.0
47.0%39.0%
Saint Anselm College Survey CenterMar 16 - 18
Ayotte+7.0
46.0%39.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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