Prediction Edge
High Impact23d
Ken Paxton

Ken Paxton

54%

Donald Trump backed Ken Paxton for the Texas Republican Senate nominee race, and Paxton is currently at 54%.

Republican
Ken Paxton

Overview

Current roleAttorney General

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age63 years old (Dec 23, 1962)

GenderMale

Show more

LocationTexas

BackgroundAttorney

Notable personal detailsWarren Kenneth Paxton Jr. is an American lawyer and Republican politician who has served as the 51st Attorney General of Texas since 2015. Before becoming attorney general, he served in the Texas House of Representatives and the Texas Senate. He launched a campaign for the U.S. Senate in Texas in the 2026 election cycle.

SourcesShow

Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports lowering or protecting taxes for households and businesses and favors passing corporate tax savings to consumers; has intervened to defend property tax cuts and opposed local actions that would raise property taxes. Policy actions emphasize tax relief and reduced tax burdens rather than expanding taxation or redistribution.

Healthcare

Opposes federal mandates expanding or compelling specific healthcare services and defends state control over Medicaid and parental access to children’s medical records; pursues legal action against federal HHS rules and policies he views as overreach. Supports enforcement actions against pharmaceutical companies and investigations of healthcare practices he deems deceptive or unsafe.

Show more

Immigration & Border

Ken Paxton advocates aggressive enforcement-first border and immigration policies, including criminalizing illegal entry, supporting detention and removal of unauthorized immigrants, opposing DACA and sanctuary/local noncooperation, and suing NGOs and localities he alleges facilitate unlawful immigration. He has led legal actions and public campaigns to expand state enforcement authority and to block or reverse federal policies he views as permissive toward unauthorized migration.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Ken Paxton supports strict limits on abortion and has acted to defend and expand enforcement of Texas’s pro-life laws; he commemorated the overturning of Roe v. Wade and has sought to block or challenge policies and rulings that would expand abortion access or exceptions.

Climate & Energy

Ken Paxton has repeatedly challenged federal climate and green-energy regulations and taken legal action to protect fossil fuel production and exports. His office frames federal emissions rules, methane regulations, and renewable-focused grid mandates as unlawful federal overreach that threaten energy independence and economic interests. Paxton has also pursued litigation against financial firms and policies he says favor ‘green energy’ at the expense of traditional energy sources.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports broad Second Amendment protections, including constitutional/concealed-carry reciprocity and defending the right of licensed Texans to carry on public property; opposes local or federal firearm restrictions and has repeatedly sued or filed briefs to block firearm bans. Advocates policies to expand carry rights rather than new gun-control measures.

Latest Insights

Texas Republican Senate nominee?

23dHigh Impact

Donald Trump backed Ken Paxton for the Texas Republican Senate nominee race, and Paxton is currently at 54%.

54%

Texas Republican Senate nominee?

30d

Ken Paxton’s Republican Senate-nomination price moved up to 64% in the last hour, extending his lead into the final stretch before the May 26 runoff. The move matters because recent reporting still shows a close, highly watched race, so even a modest rerate can affect trader positioning.

60%4%

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJun 11, 2026

Ken Paxton has won the Texas Republican Senate nomination after defeating John Cornyn, putting him on the general-election ballot and making him a major figure in the 2026 race. The win has also sharpened intraparty tensions, with Cornyn saying he will not campaign for Paxton even though he is backing the nominee. Paxton is also facing a separate legal fight over his ActBlue lawsuit, which a federal judge has questioned, and his divorce trial was canceled while settlement talks continue.

texasattorneygeneral.gov+39

Polls

Texas Republican Senate nominee?
Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
38.2%
32.1%
23.3%
Ken Paxton
K. Paxton
John Cornyn
J. Cornyn
Wesley Hunt
W. Hunt
Date (Start - End)SpreadPaxtonCornynHunt
Polling Average
Paxton+6.1
38.2%32.1%23.3%
YouGovFeb 26 - Mar 2
Paxton+4.0
36.0%32.0%17.0%
Emerson CollegeFeb 26 - 27
Paxton+3.9
39.8%35.9%16.5%
Quantus InsightsFeb 25 - 26
Paxton+6.0
43.0%37.0%16.0%
VictoryPhonesFeb 24 - 25
Paxton+9.3
38.8%29.5%15.4%
Blueprint PollingFeb 23 - 24
Paxton+11.6
41.5%29.9%13.6%
Peak InsightsFeb 19 - 23
Paxton+0.0
36.0%36.0%14.0%
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion ResearchFeb 13 - 22
Hunt+6.0
30.0%21.0%36.0%
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion ResearchFeb 13 - 22
Hunt+3.0
31.0%21.0%34.0%
Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGovFeb 2 - 16
Paxton+2.0
36.0%34.0%26.0%
McLaughlin & AssociatesFeb 9 - 12
Paxton+7.0
36.0%29.0%26.0%
McLaughlin & AssociatesFeb 9 - 12
Paxton+12.0
50.0%38.0%
McLaughlin & AssociatesFeb 9 - 12
Paxton+2.0
44.0%42.0%
Pulse Decision SicenceFeb 8 - 11
Paxton+9.0
36.0%27.0%15.0%
Peak InsightsFeb 3 - 8
Paxton+2.0
31.0%29.0%25.0%
Pulse Decision SicenceFeb 1 - 3
Paxton+8.0
34.0%26.0%18.0%
J.L. PartnersJan 31 - Feb 2
Paxton+1.3
27.0%25.5%25.7%
J.L. PartnersJan 31 - Feb 2
Paxton+1.0
41.0%40.0%
J.L. PartnersJan 31 - Feb 2
Hunt+10.0
34.0%44.0%
Ragnar Research PartnersJan 29 - Feb 1
Cornyn+2.0
29.0%31.0%24.0%
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/YouGovJan 20 - 31
Paxton+7.0
38.0%31.0%17.0%
CygnalJan 26 - 28
Paxton+0.6
25.7%22.4%25.1%
Emerson CollegeJan 10 - 12
Paxton+1.3
27.4%26.1%15.7%
Deep Root AnalyticsJan 5 - 11
Cornyn+3.0
26.0%29.0%19.0%
Harper PollingJan 5 - 7
Paxton+4.3
30.5%26.2%22.5%
Harper PollingJan 5 - 7
Paxton+10.3
43.7%33.4%
Harper PollingJan 5 - 7
Paxton+10.6
43.7%33.1%
Pulse Decision SicenceDec 14 - 17
Cornyn+0.0
38.0%38.0%16.0%
1892 PollingDec 4 - 4
Paxton+1.0
29.0%28.0%19.0%
McLaughlin & AssociatesDec 1 - 4
Paxton+5.0
33.0%27.0%28.0%
McLaughlin & AssociatesDec 1 - 4
Paxton+4.0
44.0%40.0%
McLaughlin & AssociatesDec 1 - 4
Hunt+6.0
39.0%45.0%
co/efficientDec 1 - 3
Cornyn+1.0
27.0%28.0%19.0%
J.L. PartnersDec 1 - 3
Paxton+5.0
29.0%24.0%24.0%
J.L. PartnersDec 1 - 3
Paxton+14.0
45.0%31.0%
J.L. PartnersDec 1 - 3
Hunt+2.0
35.0%37.0%
Public Policy PollingDec 1 - 2
Paxton+10.0
32.0%22.0%22.0%
Public Policy PollingDec 1 - 2
Paxton+10.0
44.0%34.0%
Peak InsightsNov 20 - 25
Cornyn+2.0
33.0%35.0%18.0%
Stratus IntelligenceNov 21 - 22
Paxton+10.0
36.0%25.0%26.0%
Stratus IntelligenceNov 21 - 22
Paxton+17.0
51.0%34.0%
Ragnar Research PartnersNov 13 - 16
Cornyn+1.0
31.0%32.0%21.0%
Ragnar Research PartnersNov 13 - 16
Cornyn+4.0
41.0%45.0%
Stratus IntelligenceNov 4 - 6
Paxton+7.0
34.0%27.0%26.0%
Stratus IntelligenceNov 4 - 6
Paxton+8.0
46.0%38.0%
Harper PollingOct 28 - 30
Cornyn+0.5
25.0%25.5%23.6%
Harper PollingOct 28 - 30
Cornyn+0.5
25.0%25.5%23.6%
Harper PollingOct 28 - 30
Paxton+4.5
38.1%33.6%
Harper PollingOct 28 - 30
Paxton+3.0
38.5%35.5%
Hunt ResearchOct 6 - 10
Paxton+4.0
28.0%24.0%19.0%
Stratus IntelligenceOct 4 - 6
Paxton+3.0
34.0%31.0%24.0%
Stratus IntelligenceOct 4 - 6
Paxton+3.0
46.0%43.0%
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs/YouGovSep 19 - Oct 1
Paxton+1.0
34.0%33.0%22.0%
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs/YouGovSep 19 - Oct 1
Cornyn+1.0
43.0%44.0%
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs/YouGovSep 19 - Oct 1
Paxton+15.0
50.0%35.0%
Deep Root AnalyticsSep 22 - 28
Cornyn+5.0
28.0%33.0%21.0%
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion ResearchSep 17 - 24
Paxton+2.0
31.0%29.0%14.0%
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion ResearchSep 17 - 24
Cornyn+2.0
37.0%39.0%
Ragnar Research PartnersSep 20 - 22
Cornyn+1.0
31.0%32.0%17.0%
Ragnar Research PartnersSep 20 - 22
Cornyn+0.0
39.0%39.0%
Stratus IntelligenceSep 14 - 16
Paxton+10.0
38.0%28.0%23.0%
Stratus IntelligenceSep 14 - 16
Hunt+1.0
38.0%39.0%
Slingshot StrategiesAug 27 - 29
Cornyn+6.0
26.0%32.0%
co/efficientAug 25 - 27
Paxton+3.0
39.0%36.0%
Stratus IntelligenceAug 24 - 26
Paxton+10.0
38.0%28.0%23.0%
Stratus IntelligenceAug 24 - 26
Paxton+7.0
48.0%41.0%
Echelon InsightsAug 21 - 24
Paxton+5.0
42.0%37.0%
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterAug 6 - 12
Paxton+5.0
35.0%30.0%22.0%
Emerson CollegeAug 11 - 12
Cornyn+0.8
28.7%29.5%
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterAug 6 - 12
Paxton+5.0
44.0%39.0%
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterAug 6 - 12
Paxton+5.0
38.0%33.0%
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterAug 6 - 12
Paxton+7.0
43.0%36.0%
Stratus IntelligenceAug 4 - 6
Paxton+8.0
37.0%29.0%23.0%
Stratus IntelligenceAug 4 - 6
Paxton+3.0
45.0%42.0%
Stratus IntelligenceJul 16 - 18
Paxton+6.0
38.0%32.0%15.0%
Stratus IntelligenceJul 16 - 18
Paxton+11.0
47.0%36.0%
Stratus IntelligenceJun 22 - 23
Paxton+13.0
41.0%28.0%17.0%
Pulse Decision SicenceJun 17 - 22
Paxton+17.0
49.0%32.0%13.0%
Pulse Decision SicenceJun 17 - 22
Paxton+19.0
57.0%38.0%
Stratus IntelligenceJun 8 - 10
Paxton+19.0
47.0%28.0%12.0%
Stratus IntelligenceJun 8 - 10
Paxton+16.0
49.0%33.0%
Stratus IntelligenceJun 6 - 8
Paxton+16.0
49.0%33.0%
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion ResearchMay 28 - Jun 7
Paxton+10.0
44.0%34.0%
UpONE InsightsMay 27 - 28
Paxton+22.0
54.0%32.0%
YouGovMay 9 - 19
Paxton+7.0
34.0%27.0%15.0%
YouGovMay 9 - 19
Paxton+9.0
43.0%34.0%
YouGovMay 9 - 19
Paxton+20.0
45.0%25.0%
Quantus InsightsMay 11 - 13
Paxton+8.0
46.0%38.0%16.0%
Quantus InsightsMay 11 - 13
Paxton+13.0
52.0%39.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026
Total raisedCash on hand
$7.6M
$5.7M
$3.8M
$1.9M
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$7.6M
$2.3M
$5.3M
$309.3K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements