Prediction Edge
Republican
Kevin Hern

Kevin Hern

Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Oklahoma

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Kevin Hern is trading at 100% to win the Oklahoma Republican Senate nominee? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age64 years old (Dec 4, 1961)

GenderMale

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LocationOklahoma

BackgroundU.S. Representative

EducationArkansas Tech University (B.S., 1986)

Notable personal detailsKevin Ray Hern is a Republican U.S. Representative from Oklahoma’s 1st congressional district, first elected in 2018. Before serving in Congress, he worked in engineering and technology and became a McDonald’s franchisee and business owner. He earned a B.S. from Arkansas Tech University and an M.B.A. from the University of Arkansas at Little Rock.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports making the post-2017 tax cuts and small-business tax deductions permanent, opposes proposed tax increases by the Biden administration, and criticizes international tax proposals viewed as disadvantaging U.S. companies. Advocates lower taxes for businesses and codifying tax policies to sustain pro-growth incentives.

Healthcare

Opposes large federal expansion of healthcare and supports market-driven, choice-centered health policy; has supported repealing the Affordable Care Act and backed Republican proposals to reduce federal involvement in programs like Medicaid. His public statements emphasize free‑market solutions and increasing options to lower costs.

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger border security and enforcement measures, including increasing border agents, resuming border wall construction, ending catch-and-release, and tightening asylum/parole policies. Opposes the Biden administration’s immigration policies and has backed Republican legislative proposals to restrict asylum abuse and strengthen enforcement.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports pro-life positions and the overturning of Roe v. Wade, saying the question should be returned to the states; has voted for and publicly praised pro-life legislation.

Climate & Energy

Opposes the Green New Deal and similar aggressive climate proposals, emphasizes energy independence and support for domestic oil and gas production, and criticizes federal policies he views as restricting American energy. Has supported legislation and votes consistent with protecting U.S. fossil-fuel interests and opposing Paris-Agreement-aligned measures.

Public Safety & Guns

Opposes expanded federal background-check legislation and voted against bills to expand background checks and extend transfer review periods. Supports permitless/constitutional carry and frames additional gun restrictions as infringements on Second Amendment rights.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

Kevin Hern has won the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary and secured the GOP nomination for the special election, putting him on track for the general election. He won outright with a strong share of the vote and will face the Democratic nominee after that party’s runoff. His campaign has also drawn high-profile backing, including endorsements from Donald Trump, John Thune, and Tim Scott. Reports also note outside spending from crypto-focused PACs in support of his race.

history.house.gov+60

Latest Polls

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Kevin Hern currently averages 50.5%, ranking first in this race, 10.5 points ahead of the nearest opponent.

Polling average: 50.5%Position: firstMargin: +10.5 ptsLatest poll: 52.0% (Mar 7 - 9)Polls included: 2

Average recalculated from polls through Mar 7 - 9.

Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
50.5%
40%
37%
Kevin Hern
K. Hern
Kevin Stitt
K. Stitt
Stephanie Bice
S. Bice
Date (Start - End)SpreadHernStittBice
Polling Average
Hern+10.5
50.5%40.0%37.0%
Pulse Decision ScienceMar 7 - 9
Hern+12.0
52.0%40.0%
Pulse Decision SicenceMar 7 - 9
Hern+12.0
49.0%37.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$2.7M
$2.0M
$1.4M
$677.4K
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$1.7M
$702.3K
$1.3M
$54.5K

Cycle 2024

$2.7M
$1.1M
$2.3M
$93.9K

Cycle 2026

$2.5M
$0.00
$3.7M
$203.4K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements