Prediction Edge
Democrat
Luke Bronin

Luke Bronin

Democratic candidate for U.S. House in Connecticut

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Luke Bronin is trading at 94% to win the CT-01 House winner? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleMayor

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyMainstream Democrat

Age47 years old (Jun 30, 1979)

GenderMale

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LocationConnecticut

BackgroundPolitician

EducationYale University (BA)

Notable personal detailsLuke Aaron Bronin is an American politician and lawyer who served as the 67th mayor of Hartford, Connecticut (2016–2024). He previously served as general counsel to Connecticut Governor Dannel P. Malloy and held senior roles at the U.S. Department of the Treasury during the Obama administration. He attended Yale University and Yale Law School, and studied at Balliol College, Oxford as a Rhodes Scholar. In 2026, he filed as a Democratic candidate for U.S. House in Connecticut’s 1st Congressional District.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

The candidate has advocated for lowering Hartford property tax rates and tax abatements for businesses while also saying the tax code should be fair and fiscally sustainable and that higher earners should contribute to protect Social Security. His record shows actions to cut or abate local taxes alongside statements supporting targeted contributions from high earners rather than broad tax increases.

Healthcare

Luke Bronin says he will work to make healthcare more affordable and has criticized incumbents for not focusing enough on healthcare affordability. Public materials emphasize lowering healthcare costs but do not specify support for Medicare for All, a public option, or detailed market-based reforms.

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Immigration & Border

Supports sanctuary-city policies and local limits on immigration enforcement, advocates for a clean Dream Act and comprehensive immigration reform, and has taken actions to welcome refugees and resist large-scale deportation actions.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate has supported measures to protect and expand abortion access and to ensure accurate information about reproductive-health services, including backing Hartford’s ordinance regulating crisis pregnancy centers and endorsing Connecticut as a safe-harbor for people seeking abortion care. He has publicly said the city’s policy aims to ensure women are told the truth when making health decisions and has promoted state efforts to make abortion services accessible to out-of-state patients.

Climate & Energy

Supports active municipal climate action and investments in clean energy and green infrastructure, including a city Climate Action Plan, a Sustainability Office, and promotion of a green electric grid and emissions reductions. Has advocated for expanding electric-vehicle infrastructure and other measures to lower greenhouse-gas emissions while pursuing economic development and resilience projects.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports stronger measures to prevent gun violence including cracking down on repeat firearm offenders, removing the NRA’s role from Connecticut permit training, and backing federal and state violence-intervention and illegal-trafficking initiatives. Emphasizes investment in community violence interruption and tougher consequences for repeat gun offenders while supporting enforcement and prevention programs.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 16, 2026

Luke Bronin has won the Democratic primary in Connecticut's 1st Congressional District, defeating longtime Rep. John Larson and securing the party's nomination for the general election. He won with about 54% of the vote, ending Larson's run representing the district since 1999. The race had been a competitive challenge centered on change versus the status quo, with Bronin backed by party support and outside spending.

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Latest Polls

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Global Strategy Group
50%40%30%20%10%0%
38%
Luke Bronin
L. Bronin
Date (Start - End)SpreadShare
Global Strategy GroupMay 21, 2026
38.0%
GQRFeb 1, 2026
26.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$3.1M
$2.3M
$1.5M
$767.5K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$3.1M
$600.9K
$2.5M
$130.0K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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