Prediction Edge
RepublicanIncumbent
M. Michael Rounds

Overview

Current roleU.S. Senator

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age71 years old (Oct 24, 1954)

GenderMale

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LocationSouth Dakota

BackgroundPolitician

EducationSouth Dakota State University — B.S., Political Science

Notable personal detailsMarion Michael “Mike” Rounds is a Republican U.S. Senator from South Dakota, serving since January 3, 2015. He previously served as the 31st Governor of South Dakota (2003–2011) and represented District 24 in the South Dakota State Senate (1991–2001), including six years as Senate Majority Leader. He earned a B.S. in political science from South Dakota State University and worked in the private sector in insurance and real estate.

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Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports lowering taxes for individuals and businesses, simplifying the tax code, and reducing regulatory burdens to spur economic growth. Has introduced legislation proposing across-the-board rate cuts and promoted corporate and individual tax rate reductions as a path to job creation and higher wages. Opposed Democratic tax-and-spending packages that include new corporate taxes and expanded tax-funded programs.

Healthcare

Supports repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act in favor of market-based, patient-centered reforms, increased competition in insurance markets, and greater state flexibility for programs like Medicaid; has sponsored and cosponsored legislation focused on rolling back ACA provisions and advancing market-oriented health policy. Also sponsors legislation addressing rural and tribal health access and pandemic preparedness without proposing large federal expansions like single-payer or Medicare for All.

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger border security and enforcement measures, including construction of a physical barrier along the southern border and legislation to crack down on asylum abuse and illegal crossings. Opposes amnesty or broad regularization for unauthorized immigrants and favors tightening enforcement of existing immigration laws while supporting targeted legal pathways (e.g., H-2B) for workforce needs.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate supports legal protections for unborn children beginning at conception and seeks to restrict or prohibit most abortions, with exceptions limited to saving the mother’s life. He has sponsored and cosponsored federal measures to ban specific abortion procedures, to deny taxpayer funding for abortion, to protect infants born alive after attempted abortions, and to extend constitutional protections to unborn children at conception.

Climate & Energy

Opposes international agreements and aggressive regulatory approaches to limit greenhouse gas emissions, supports an "all-of-the-above" energy strategy that preserves fossil fuel production while promoting biofuels and other domestic energy sources, and has voted or advocated to roll back or block major EPA climate regulations. Advocates for protecting and expanding the Renewable Fuel Standard and opposes policies like the Green New Deal and the Paris Agreement.

Public Safety & Guns

Mike Rounds consistently supports expanding and protecting Second Amendment rights, sponsors legislation to enable constitutional-carry protections and to remove federal barriers for lawful gun owners, and opposes regulatory actions by the ATF that he views as restricting access to firearms or ammunition. He has introduced bills to expand carry rights across states, protect travelers and tribal members’ ability to purchase firearms, and led efforts to block ATF rulemaking affecting gun owners.

Polls

South Dakota Republican Senate nominee?
Polling Average
80%60%40%20%0%
65.8%
18.2%
M. Michael Rounds
M. Rounds
Justin McNeal
J. McNeal
Date (Start - End)SpreadRoundsMcNeal
Polling Average
Rounds+47.6
65.8%18.2%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 7 - 11
Rounds+47.6
65.8%18.2%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026
Total raisedCash on hand
$2.9M
$2.2M
$1.5M
$734.2K
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$253.1K
$1.4M
$538.1K
$22.4K

Cycle 2024

$1.1M
$1.9M
$611.9K
$25.5K

Cycle 2026

$2.4M
$2.9M
$1.4M
$91.0K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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