Prediction Edge
Republican
Madison Cawthorn

Madison Cawthorn

Republican candidate for U.S. House in Florida

Live Odds — FL-19 Republican nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

0%chance to win

$156.5KAUG 25, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Opposes tax increases proposed by Democrats and argues that raising taxes (including on capital gains and income) would harm the economy; supported policies and votes aligned with lower taxes and limited government spending. Voting and advocacy record shows consistent opposition to major Democratic tax-and-spend measures.

Healthcare

Supports market-based healthcare reforms focused on increasing competition and reducing insurer market power, opposes abolishing Medicare, and advocates eliminating waste to streamline benefits. Emphasizes free‑market solutions rather than expansion of government programs or single‑payer approaches.

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger border security and enforcement (often summarized as “walls and doors”) while endorsing legal immigration; emphasizes stopping illegal immigration, human trafficking, and limiting benefits for undocumented migrants. Has sponsored legislation to restrict federal funding related to transportation of undocumented immigrants.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate describes himself as pro‑life and states that life begins at conception, supporting legal protections beginning at conception. He cosponsored and supported multiple federal measures to restrict abortion (including fetal heartbeat bans, prohibitions on certain procedures, and bans on taxpayer‑funded abortions).

Climate & Energy

The candidate expresses skepticism about the severity of human-driven climate change and has a low lifetime score from environmental advocacy groups for votes supporting climate and clean-energy measures. Public statements describe climate change as "pretty minimal," and his congressional voting record shows opposition to multiple climate-related proposals.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate opposes expanded gun regulations and defended unfettered Second Amendment rights on the House floor. He voted against federal measures including an assault-weapons ban and the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act and has high ratings from gun-rights organizations.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 15, 2026

Madison Cawthorn is running for the Republican nomination in Florida’s 19th Congressional District in the 2026 election. He is part of a crowded primary in a heavily Republican seat, where the GOP winner is likely to be favored in the general election. Recent coverage says he is campaigning on border security, taxes, water quality, and disaster resilience.

history.house.gov+63

Latest Polls

FL-19 Republican nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Madison Cawthorn currently averages 5.8%, ranking 5th in this race, 0.5 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 5.8%Position: 5thMargin: -0.5 ptsLatest poll: 6.0% (Aug 4 - 6)Polls included: 4

Average recalculated from polls through Aug 4 - 6.

Polling Average
15%10%5%0%
5.8%
11.9%
10.2%
9.7%
6.3%
Madison Cawthorn
M. Cawthorn
Catalina Lauf
C. Lauf
Jim Schwartzel
J. Schwartzel
Jim Oberweis
J. Oberweis
Chris Collins
C. Collins
Ola Hawatmeh
O. Hawatmeh
Date (Start - End)SpreadCawthornLaufSchwartzelOberweisCollinsHawatmeh
Polling Average
Lauf+6.1
5.8%11.9%10.2%9.7%6.3%2.0%
Victory InsightsAug 4 - 6
Schwartzel+13.1
6.0%18.9%19.1%11.7%8.0%4.0%
Victory InsightsJun 20 - 21
Schwartzel+7.6
5.2%4.9%12.8%11.9%3.4%0.0%
InquireOct 4 - 6
Collins+1.0
8.0%5.0%8.0%9.0%
InquireOct 4 - 6
Oberweis+3.0
4.0%4.0%7.0%5.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

2
FL-19 Republican nominee?

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$874.6K
$656.0K
$437.3K
$218.7K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$874.6K
$146.2K
$728.4K
$38.3K

Source: FEC