Prediction Edge
Democrat
Mandela Barnes

Mandela Barnes

Democratic candidate for Governor in Wisconsin

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Mandela Barnes is trading at 1% to win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary: 2nd place on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleFormer Lieutenant Governor

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyProgressive Democrat

Age39 years old (Dec 1, 1986)

GenderMale

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LocationWisconsin

BackgroundPolitician

EducationAlabama A&M University — B.A., communications media (performance specialization) (completed 2020)

Notable personal detailsJ. Mandela Barnes is an American politician who served as the 45th lieutenant governor of Wisconsin (2019–2023) and previously represented Wisconsin's 11th Assembly district (2013–2017). He was the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin in 2022. Barnes has attended Alabama A&M University and later completed a Bachelor of Arts degree in communications media (performance specialization). In 2025, he announced a run for governor of Wisconsin in the 2026 election cycle.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports closing tax loopholes for the ultra‑rich and raising taxes on corporations and the wealthiest while cutting taxes for working‑ and middle‑class households; proposes reforming specific state tax credits (e.g., agriculture/manufacturing) to benefit local small businesses and family farmers. Advocates using increased revenue to expand programs such as BadgerCare and invest in education, jobs, and housing affordability.

Healthcare

Mandela Barnes has expressed support for Medicare for All and also backs incremental expansions such as lowering the Medicare eligibility age and expanding Medicaid/BadgerCare access, while proposing targeted initiatives like Black maternal-health policy and full Medicaid expansion in Wisconsin.

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Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports federal protections for abortion access (has called for codifying Roe v. Wade) and has received endorsements from reproductive-rights organizations; expresses that abortion decisions should be made between a patient and their doctor while rejecting extreme bans.

Climate & Energy

Supports Green New Deal–style policies and a transition to 100% renewable/clean energy, has chaired a statewide task force that produced 55 policy recommendations to reduce emissions, expand renewables, and prioritize environmental justice and clean-energy jobs.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports universal background checks, red-flag (extreme risk protection) laws, bans on assault-style weapons and high-capacity magazines, and other significant firearm restrictions as part of a broader gun violence prevention agenda.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 31, 2026

Mandela Barnes has dropped out of the Wisconsin Democratic governor’s race, narrowing the field just before the Aug. 11 primary. He said it was clear who the party’s nominee would be, and the move came as Francesca Hong was leading recent polling and David Crowley remained in the race. Barnes had previously been one of the Democratic frontrunners and had also rolled out policy proposals, including a plan to ban AI-driven price increases.

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Latest Polls

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Mandela Barnes currently averages 20.0%, ranking second in this race, 2.3 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 20.0%Position: secondMargin: -2.3 ptsLatest poll: 14.0% (Jul 23 - 26)Polls included: 14

Average recalculated from polls through Jul 23 - 26.

Polling Average
25%20%15%10%5%0%
20.0%
22.2%
8.1%
Mandela Barnes
M. Barnes
Francesca Hong
F. Hong
David Crowley
D. Crowley
Date (Start - End)SpreadBarnesHongCrowley
Polling Average
Hong+2.3
20.0%22.2%8.1%
State NavigateJul 23 - 26
Hong+30.0
14.0%44.0%15.0%
Public Policy PollingJul 20 - 22
Hong+20.0
15.0%35.0%14.0%
Impact ResearchJul 18 - 20
Hong+13.0
26.0%39.0%11.0%
Wedgewood PollsJul 18 - 20
Hong+8.0
30.0%38.0%9.0%
Marquette University Law SchoolJul 8 - 16
Hong+11.0
15.0%26.0%
Wedgewood PollsJul 2 - 4
Hong+2.0
28.0%30.0%
The Public Sentiment InstituteMay 13 - 15
Barnes+15.2
23.4%7.3%8.2%
The Public Sentiment InstituteMay 13 - 15
Barnes+15.6
24.1%8.5%8.0%
Marquette University Law SchoolMar 11 - 18
Hong+3.0
11.0%14.0%3.0%
Patriot PollingMar 10 - 16
Hong+9.0
18.0%27.0%6.0%
Marquette University Law SchoolFeb 11 - 19
Hong+1.0
10.0%11.0%3.0%
TIPP InsightsFeb 6 - 12
Barnes+21.0
28.0%5.0%7.0%
TIPP InsightsNov 17 - 21
Barnes+15.0
21.0%6.0%
Platform CommunicationsSep 28 - 30
Barnes+9.0
16.0%4.0%7.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

12
Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2022

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$42.3M
$31.8M
$21.2M
$10.6M
$0

2022

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$42.3M
$565.7K
$41.8M
$1.7M

Source: FEC