Prediction Edge
DemocratIncumbent
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Incumbent Democratic candidate for U.S. House in Washington

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is trading at 1% to win the WA-03 primary: 1st place on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyModerate Democrat

Age38 years old (Jun 4, 1988)

GenderFemale

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LocationWashington

BackgroundSmall business owner

EducationReed College (B.A., 2012)

Notable personal detailsMarie Gluesenkamp Perez (born June 4, 1988) is a U.S. Representative from Washington, serving Washington’s 3rd Congressional District since January 3, 2023. She earned a B.A. from Reed College in 2012 and has worked as a small business owner. She has served on House committees including Agriculture and Small Business (118th Congress) and Appropriations (119th Congress).

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports closing wealthy tax loopholes and advancing targeted tax credits to help working families and small businesses while emphasizing responsible federal spending and fiscal oversight. Proposes reforms that would tax carried interest as ordinary income and has sponsored refundable tax credits and employer tax credits aimed at lowering costs for low- and middle-income households and helping small employers offer benefits.

Healthcare

Supports strengthening and extending Affordable Care Act provisions and lowering costs for patients through measures like enhanced ACA subsidies, pricing transparency, and bipartisan legislation to prevent premium spikes and protect affordable coverage.

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Immigration & Border

The congresswoman has supported strengthened enforcement measures at the border and backed legislation and funding that increase detention and enforcement capacity. She voted for the Laken Riley Act (which requires detention/deportation for certain undocumented offenders), voted to fund the Department of Homeland Security (including ICE), and sponsored/advocated for measures to support Customs and Border Protection inspection operations. These actions indicate an enforcement-oriented approach while stopping short of maximalist restrictionist proposals.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports abortion access and reproductive choice and opposes national bans on abortion; has taken legislative and legal actions to protect access to medication abortion and cosponsored federal legislation to protect abortion rights.

Climate & Energy

Supports expanding clean energy and electric vehicle infrastructure while seeking policies to lower energy costs and reform permitting to accelerate renewables; accepts transitional fossil fuel use and advocates support for small energy producers. Has sponsored legislation to protect coastal communities from offshore wind impacts unless studies show no adverse effects.

Public Safety & Guns

Opposes an outright ban on assault weapons but supports raising the minimum age to purchase semiautomatic/assault rifles from 18 to 21 and favors some targeted restrictions while respecting gun ownership. Positions indicate support for limited regulatory measures rather than broad prohibitions.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 5, 2026

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has advanced to the general election in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District after the top-two primary count, setting up another closely watched race in a competitive district. CBS News projected that she and Republican state Sen. John Braun will move on to November. Earlier coverage also noted some intraparty tension among Washington Democrats over her, including debate at the state convention over her vote on a transgender-related bill.

history.house.gov+34

Latest Polls

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez currently averages 24.5%, ranking first in this race, 12.0 points ahead of the nearest opponent.

Polling average: 24.5%Position: firstMargin: +12.0 ptsLatest poll: 25.0% (Jul 8 - 10)Polls included: 2

Average recalculated from polls through Jul 8 - 10.

Polling Average
30%25%20%15%10%5%0%
24.5%
12.5%
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
M. Perez
Brent Hennrich
B. Hennrich
Date (Start - End)SpreadPerezHennrich
Polling Average
Perez+12.0
24.5%12.5%
Emerson CollegeJul 8 - 10
Perez+14.0
25.0%11.0%
Gravis MarketingNov 10 - 12
Perez+10.0
24.0%14.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$11.9M
$8.9M
$5.9M
$3.0M
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$3.9M
$66.3K
$3.9M
$160.7K

Cycle 2024

$11.9M
$26.5K
$11.9M
$495.7K

Cycle 2026

$6.3M
$2.1M
$4.3M
$223.9K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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