Prediction Edge
DemocratIncumbent
Mark Warner

Mark Warner

Incumbent Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Virginia

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Mark Warner is trading at 97% to win the Virginia Senate winner? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Senator

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyModerate Democrat

Age71 years old (Dec 15, 1954)

GenderMale

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LocationVirginia

BackgroundPolitician

EducationGeorge Washington University (BA)

Notable personal detailsMark Robert Warner is the senior United States senator from Virginia, first elected in 2008 and serving since January 3, 2009. He previously served as the 69th governor of Virginia (2002–2006) and has worked as a technology and business leader, including co-founding the company that became Nextel. He earned a BA from George Washington University and a JD from Harvard University. He is married to Lisa Collis and they have three daughters.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports tax policies that provide relief to working- and middle-class families (expanded Earned Income Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit), and backs closing corporate international tax loopholes while opposing tax plans that primarily benefit the ultra-wealthy; sponsors targeted tax provisions (e.g., excluding broadband deployment grants from taxable income) and legislation to improve IRS customer service.

Healthcare

Supports strengthening and expanding the Affordable Care Act, including protections for people with preexisting conditions, expanded premium subsidies, and creation of a low-cost public option. Has sponsored legislation to cap marketplace premiums, establish a public option, and pursue targeted bipartisan reforms to improve access and lower costs. Also has pursued bipartisan fixes to Medicare/Medicare Advantage administration and access issues for seniors.

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Immigration & Border

Supports comprehensive immigration reform combining strengthened border security with pathways to legal status for Dreamers and other undocumented immigrants, and has backed bipartisan bills that pair funding for border measures with opportunities for eventual citizenship. Has also criticized overreach in immigration enforcement and pressed agencies for accountability and protection of constitutional rights. Supports reforms to retain high-skilled immigrants for economic growth alongside humanitarian protections.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Mark Warner supports protecting and restoring access to abortion and broader reproductive health care at the federal level, has cosponsored the Women’s Health Protection Act, and has called for safeguarding rights overturned by Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. He has also cosponsored legislation to protect access to IVF and contraception.

Climate & Energy

Supports U.S. climate commitments and federal actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while backing significant clean-energy investment and regional market-based programs; favors an "all-of-the-above" energy portfolio including renewables, nuclear, and carbon-capture research. Has voted for major climate and clean-energy legislation and sponsored/co-sponsored bills to expand regional greenhouse-gas reduction programs and to uphold Paris Agreement commitments.

Public Safety & Guns

Mark R. Warner supports expanded federal background checks, Extreme Risk Protection Orders (red flag laws), and federal restrictions on assault-style weapons and high-capacity magazines. He has co-sponsored and reintroduced legislation to expand background checks and has promoted a Virginia-based plan to enact additional gun-safety measures at the federal level.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 5, 2026

Mark Warner is in the news because he is running for reelection to a fourth Senate term in Virginia, and Republican Bert Mizusawa has now won the GOP primary to face him in November. Warner has also been rolling out campaign policy proposals, including a broad AI regulation plan and a bill tying data center tax breaks to energy efficiency and environmental standards. He recently said this would be his final Senate campaign if reelected. Earlier this year, Warner also announced that his daughter Madison died after a long illness.

warner.senate.gov+43

Latest Polls

Virginia Senate winner?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Mark Warner currently averages 50.8%, ranking first in this race, 21.3 points ahead of the nearest opponent.

Polling average: 50.8%Position: firstMargin: +21.3 ptsLatest poll: 50.3% (Jun 12 - 16)Polls included: 4

Average recalculated from polls through Jun 12 - 16.

Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
50.8%
29.5%
Mark Warner
M. Warner
Bert Mizusawa
B. Mizusawa
Date (Start - End)SpreadWarnerMizusawa
Polling Average
Warner+21.3
50.8%29.5%
The Public Sentiment InstituteJun 12 - 16
Warner+17.5
50.3%32.8%
The Public Sentiment InstituteJun 12 - 16
Warner+16.1
47.6%31.5%
The Public Sentiment InstituteMay 1 - 5
Warner+25.8
54.6%28.8%
The Public Sentiment InstituteMay 1 - 5
Warner+25.9
50.7%24.8%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

5
Virginia Democratic Senate nominee?

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$17.9M
$13.4M
$8.9M
$4.5M
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$3.0M
$2.6M
$839.7K
$35.0K

Cycle 2024

$4.3M
$5.6M
$1.3M
$52.8K

Cycle 2026

$17.9M
$16.1M
$7.3M
$385.7K

Source: FEC