Prediction Edge
Republican
Marty Jackley

Marty Jackley

Republican candidate for U.S. House in South Dakota

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Marty Jackley is trading at 99% to win the SD-AL Republican nominee? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleAttorney General

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age55 years old (Oct 13, 1970)

GenderMale

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LocationSouth Dakota

BackgroundAttorney

EducationSouth Dakota School of Mines and Technology (B.S., Electrical Engineering)

Notable personal detailsMartin Jacob Jackley is an American attorney and Republican politician who has served as South Dakota Attorney General (2009–2019) and again beginning in 2023. He previously served as U.S. Attorney for the District of South Dakota (2006–2009). Jackley earned a B.S. in electrical engineering from the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology and a J.D. from the University of South Dakota School of Law.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports cutting taxes, reducing the size of government, opposing new state income taxes, and enforcing/expanding sales-tax collection and limits on property-tax assessment growth. Emphasizes keeping government accountable to taxpayers and using tax policy to support Main Street businesses rather than create new taxes.

Healthcare

Opposes expanding Medicaid and has taken legal action against federal health-care rules and mandates, arguing they are unfunded federal overreach that harm state budgets and providers. Emphasizes state authority and opposes certain Affordable Care Act protections and CMS staffing requirements for nursing homes.

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger immigration enforcement and state cooperation with federal authorities while endorsing improved legal pathways such as E-Verify and visas. As Attorney General he authorized South Dakota law-enforcement participation in ICE’s 287(g) program limited to violent criminals and drug dealers and has praised court action blocking executive parole policies.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Marty Jackley has defended and sought to enforce South Dakota’s near-total abortion ban, has joined other attorneys general in challenging federal policies on mifepristone, and has taken legal/administrative action against organizations advertising access to abortion medication in the state. He states that state law makes providing or prescribing abortion-inducing medication illegal except to save the life of the mother.

Climate & Energy

Supports domestic energy production including renewable fuels (ethanol) tied to South Dakota’s agricultural economy and has acted to defend the Renewable Fuel Standard; expresses alignment with federal energy policy prioritizing U.S. energy independence and working with national Republican leaders on energy. Has publicly opposed a ballot measure tied to carbon-pipeline rules that would limit eminent-domain challenges.

Public Safety & Guns

Marty Jackley consistently opposes new federal or state gun restrictions and supports strong Second Amendment protections. As South Dakota Attorney General he has joined multi-state legal actions opposing magazine and assault-style rifle bans and has criticized proposed ATF rules expanding firearm-sale liability. He frames such measures as infringements on the rights of law‑abiding citizens.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedSep 2, 2026

Marty Jackley is in the news as a South Dakota candidate in a crowded 2026 political landscape, with the state’s Republican governor race now headed to a runoff after no one cleared the primary threshold. Recent coverage around South Dakota politics also points to a competitive general-election environment, with Democrats trying to capitalize on GOP divisions and other races in the state drawing attention. There is not much direct reporting here on Jackley’s own campaign moves, so the latest news is mostly about the broader race he is part of.

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Latest Polls

SD-AL Republican nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Marty Jackley currently averages 58.7%, ranking first in this race, 51.5 points ahead of the nearest opponent.

Polling average: 58.7%Position: firstMargin: +51.5 ptsLatest poll: 67.8% (Apr 7 - 11)Polls included: 3

Average recalculated from polls through Apr 7 - 11.

Polling Average
80%60%40%20%0%
58.7%
7.2%
Marty Jackley
M. Jackley
James Bialota
J. Bialota
Date (Start - End)SpreadJackleyBialota
Polling Average
Jackley+51.5
58.7%7.2%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 7 - 11
Jackley+55.4
67.8%12.4%
Emerson CollegeMar 7 - 9
Jackley+44.2
51.3%7.1%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyOct 16 - 20
Jackley+55.0
57.0%2.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$1.4M
$1.1M
$719.4K
$359.7K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$1.4M
$1.1M
$376.0K
$20.9K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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